{"id":"1775246692426-m3uwf5BZy1Y","videoId":"m3uwf5BZy1Y","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y","title":"Market Structure is Distorting Reality as Inflation Builds | Weekly Roundup","type":"youtube","topicCount":14,"segmentCount":124,"createdAt":"2026-04-03T20:04:52.426Z","uploadDate":"20260403","chunks":[{"title":"Teasers, Disclaimer & Intro","summary":"The episode begins with a few teaser quotes from the hosts, a standard legal and financial disclaimer, and the podcast intro music.","entries":[{"text":"Tyler: This is wartime allocation of capital. And this isn't just about the Iran situation. This is about what's been building for three years, four years, five years. It just favors scarce resources you can't print.","offset":0,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Oil prices aren't high enough for demand destruction, but they're high enough for inflation. You could make the argument it's actually almost better for it to go higher, then you get the demand destruction like central bank's gonna actually fucking do something. We're stuck in the corridor of everybody's frozen.","offset":12,"duration":14},{"text":"Quinn: The incentives here point to inflation, and inflation is really bad for risk assets because it sends bond yields higher and equity multiples lower. I think the outlook is horrendous.","offset":26,"duration":16},{"text":"Quinn: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of Blockworks. Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk. Terms and conditions apply. Do your own research.","offset":42,"duration":24},{"text":"[intro music plays]","offset":66,"duration":7}],"startTime":0},{"title":"Welcome Back & Tyler's Illness","summary":"The hosts reunite after a week apart. They exchange banter about Tyler's significant weight loss following a severe bout with a virus.","entries":[{"text":"Felix: All right, what's going on everybody? Welcome back to another roundup edition of Forward Guidance and we are back with the trio. We're back at home. No more conference, no more sick Tyler. The boys are back, the trio's back. Kind of feels like we didn't miss anything. Oil's still at 100 bucks. It's like nothing's changed in the last three weeks, so I guess we didn't miss anything in that whole time.","offset":73,"duration":23},{"text":"Tyler: It was at 110 now. There you go, yeah, it is. Did you guys notice I'm a little more svelte from my weeklong hiatus from food?","offset":96,"duration":10},{"text":"Felix: You look so good dude. It's not the red light tree tied? You're not on the GLPs or what?","offset":106,"duration":5},{"text":"Tyler: No, I lost like 10 pounds from that virus. I couldn't eat for like six days. It was terrible.","offset":111,"duration":7},{"text":"Felix: That's brutal.","offset":118,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, it wasn't fun.","offset":119,"duration":0}],"startTime":73},{"title":"Market Chop & Hedge Fund Performance","summary":"The trio discusses the volatile, sideways market that is currently crushing options premiums and causing drawdowns for multi-manager podshops, while contrasting it with Pierre Andurand's aggressive and successful oil trades.","entries":[{"text":"Quinn: It is kind of groundhog day-esque because when I look at the Russell, we're closed basically smack dab where we were on Friday, March 6th. So it's like we just chopped everybody to shreds over the course of the month.","offset":119,"duration":13},{"text":"Felix: That's that's my whole thing is just like burning at the stake of put premium, even call premium, just premium everywhere just getting smoked as we just chop around. Like it's just brutal out there.","offset":132,"duration":10},{"text":"Tyler: You know what is so fascinating is like from an index basis, things - not much happens. But underneath the hood, if you look on like a sectoral basis, everything happens and that's really where all the alpha is generated. But you even notice from, you know, the - like you said, the indexes are unchanged, but some of the hedge fund performance numbers came out and some of these multi-platform funds got absolutely rocked, even in, you know, because single stock vol's super high and factor volatility's super high.","offset":142,"duration":29},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, the the potshops are all down like 4% over the last month or so, which is kind of nuts. You know who I saw was at the top, though, is Pierre Andurand, the French oil trader. He's up 30% month over month, which is kind of sick. Even though I mean, he was down like 50% last year. I don't know, his Sharpe ratio, I don't even know.","offset":171,"duration":20},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, he's got an iron stomach, dude.","offset":191,"duration":3},{"text":"Felix: Oh, dude, it's insane.","offset":194,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: We were talking about that is like, it's pretty incredible. Like you have to consistently manage risk to get to that point of success, to then have enough of your LPs to stick with you through that volatility. Like they - it's not like you're going to get like a billion dollars if you're that volatile at the start of your career. So you have to be doing something right to take those drawdowns and anyway, it's just kind of -","offset":195,"duration":21},{"text":"Felix: Yeah. It is an interesting comparison compared to the potshop model, where their drawdowns are pretty limited honestly, past that 4% because, you know, if you max out your risk limits there, you just get fired. So you know, there's probably a whole new cohort at the potshops for April. Um, the rest of those guys who are down 4% have all been fired. So you know, it's a new cohort in and, you know, just roll the dice once again.","offset":216,"duration":22},{"text":"Tyler: Absolutely.","offset":238,"duration":1},{"text":"Quinn: That must be the most stressful job in the whole entire world if in this market if you can't have any any lean.","offset":239,"duration":7},{"text":"Felix: You're down 1% this week. You're like, oh god. You're getting smoked by Trump tweets and then you just get carried out of your pod like man. I yeah, you know, it's the cool place these days, but that's a lot to handle.","offset":246,"duration":15},{"text":"Tyler: You know what existentially it's just not in my DNA because like I - I'd like to think like investing that's a risk management job. Like you - you might as well be like an insurance, you know, risk person, rather than like the whole point of investing is to grow the economy and be risk-forward. And if you have one good year as like a growth investor, you can like compound that. Although the guys that are the heads of the multi-platform funds and have figured out are clearly like, you know, what's just men of the world. But like if you're just a risk manager PM, like these these long-only guys, long-only schlobs that ride like, you know, frontier assets may crush it comparatively, with way less stress.","offset":261,"duration":47},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, I mean their mandate's long-only, you're just like, well, everything's down.","offset":308,"duration":4},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, just buy it, it's going up. You know, like, oh let's - we're going to invest in space stocks, yeah, let's go, let's keep going, pump this thing.","offset":312,"duration":9}],"startTime":119},{"title":"Deleveraging & Bearish Conviction","summary":"After a brief catch-up on a recent conference, the hosts analyze how geopolitical news and a lack of fresh information have impacted the market. Quinn breaks down charts showing extreme CTA deleveraging and a heavily hedged environment.","entries":[{"text":"Felix: Yeah, yeah, all right. Um, anyway we're back from DAS. Great time, had some great interviews. Quinn had a great interview with with Tony G, TG Macro. We had a good roundup at Joseph Wang. I had my my fireside chat with Fed Governor Stephen Ryan, that was super cool. We put that out on the platform yesterday or Wednesday, this is coming out Friday. So check that out. But yeah, man, Tyler we missed you there.","offset":321,"duration":20},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, I really missed you guys. It was uh, you know, tough traveling these days, but I'm kind of getting out of it. Eventually I'll be -","offset":341,"duration":10},{"text":"Felix: Fed life.","offset":351,"duration":0},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, yeah, exactly. Um, all right well why don't we talk about where the market's at. Obviously like we were just saying, it's it's somewhat Groundhog Day in terms of the geopolitical headlines. Like we had this this big Trump speech last night, addressing the nation. Not a lot not a lot of new news, but it's always interesting to contrast that with positioning where we had, you know, off the back of two days of rallying going into that point and a lot of expectations it felt like baked into the market that he's going to potentially announce some sort of ceasefire. Um, just the fact that there's no new information still, you know, reiterating this idea of a couple more weeks and and all of that and markets sold off and here we are again just mental and just chopping around. Um, Quinn, what's your read on the markets? Start with you here, what's going on?","offset":351,"duration":45},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah, I I mean, my conviction has waned in terms of near-term direction. Have been very decidedly and convictedly bearish for the whole start of the year pretty much. I mean, playing it long short from the metals longs to the energy longs and pretty much short tech and related things the whole whole way down. But um, here I just think that like the market is so hedged and you kind of have to have - I wrote in in this morning - you kind of have to have an egg timer on your plays. Like we've been pounding the table bearish Mag 7 and things for for like three or four months and and they're kind of not going down anymore. Like I - I had some charts if we want to start on those.","offset":396,"duration":53},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, let's see them.","offset":449,"duration":1},{"text":"Quinn: So maybe start with slide 30. I - this one is global CTA positioning, basically just showing and these these might be like a week old, so for probably from last Friday. So just you know, maybe even more degrossing has happened this week. But this is CTA showing just a very extreme deleveraging. Positioning isn't at lows, but you know, in terms of one-month change is very low. The the next slide shows the CTA positioning's very very flat to short. Um, the next one is the the implied moves of of S&P one-week straddle cost, which is extremely elevated. Um, you can kind of see 2022 as a pretty good comp for probably the environment we're going into there with just structurally elevated for the year. The next one is uh, the Move index, one-month change, which is bond volatility. Obviously, you know, this is like fourth highest in the last number of years. Um, so that's a pretty big jump. Um, the next one is S&P futures asset manager positioning, uh rolling three-week change, huge huge decline. And then on the sentiment stuff, you have AAII bearish, next next slide, bearish sentiments moving up. Next one, consolidated positioning moving down. Fundamental long short on the next one are, you know, sharpest weekly reduction since Liberation Day. And then the last one is uh, Nasdaq members above the 50-day moving average, which is which is extremely low. So it you know, a lot of these kind of saying the same thing, but to me it's it's the market has delevered and degrossed a a fair bit amount. Like so much so that shorting at these areas is a very tough place to make money when when you see these types of of moves and factor in on top of that volatility skew and put uh, put um, demand is still very high. So we've degrossed tremendously the last, a lot of the long-onlys, the trend followers, systematics, and the market is still very hedged. So like it was an obvious short to me when the market wasn't so hedged, VIX was lower and no one had delevered and degrossed and now it's kind of like eh, I don't want to be the last guy at the party and I've I've pretty much used this week to trim. It was kind of funny because coming into the week, I stayed short over last weekend, which was kind of different because every Monday we got a bounce and I stayed short, kind of covered early in the week and I was like so fatigued from - I was carrying very large risk on on this these positions for like two, three months straight. I was like all right, I'm going to just kind of wrap it up for for a week and reset, rejuvenate, write, think. And then the next two days, we just get the mother of all squeezes on completely BS news going into this Telegraph Trump press conference. And yesterday I'm sitting there I'm like I gotta short this thing again. I have to. There's no way a 9 p.m. press conference is to announce something good. You set up a 9 p.m.er to announce, you know, something bad. If it was good, he would have just telegraphed it to the world via Twitter and the market's kind of rising on lower volume. So I was like ah fuck it, I'll short again. And then this morning I the markets didn't open fast enough to cover and like I'm like all right, time to go enjoy Easter holy weekend and so I'm just waiting for the next fat pitch. I I don't I'm I still have stuff on, but it's it's very flat and way degrossed. So I don't know, like I think April's the best chance for a bounce out of any month. I don't think the medium-term picture's pretty at all. Like Trump told us point blank there's a month left to the war, which probably means two or three or more. So it's not going to be great, but I just don't see where the incremental selling comes from. I think everybody knows uh, all the information's out there. So I'm just waiting to watch and I'd love to short another couple percentage points higher on on risk again is is what I'd look for.","offset":450,"duration":261}],"startTime":321},{"title":"Market Structure & Options Volatility","summary":"Tyler and Felix break down market structure mechanics, including how retail 0DTE options decay and JPMorgan's collar rolls systematically drive market squeezes, causing volatility disconnects.","entries":[{"text":"Tyler: I think part of the uh, the problem is the market got overhedged and index actual index realized volatility did not rise commensurately with the implied volatility. So you know, implied volatility is forward looking, realized volatility is backward looking. And like we said, the index actual trading did not really move that much. So you know, the implied volatility rolls off as time goes on, causes that short squeeze effect that we saw today a little bit. So it's more of like the, you know, because of all the systematic trading, these things get so exacerbated in either direction and we saw like the VIX curve invert, that's usually a gr- my favorite sign for like when things are overhedged to the downside. I will say this though, the market was on the precipice of some sort of like if you looked at the dollar breaking out to new highs, if you looked at the yen at 160, like that could have broken out and caused a major credit vol and what what did we see? We saw the Bank of Japan lower their quantitative easing to so so the yen squeezed, right? The vol controllers always know these levels and and I guess it's a good thing that things don't just get completely derailed, your pr- they're proactive now with policy rather than reactive, which is you know, historically way different. So you have to think about that, you know, when you're at these levels. If they don't break through on high volume, that means they're probably going to reverse. So that's you know, I try to point them out on Twitter where I can, you know, when when I feel like this is a breaking point and obviously you know, the dollar rolled over, the yen squeezed and then all the vol metrics kind of rolled off after that. So it was a really bipolar outcome, you could have seen the market kind of cave and you still can, like you gotta watch the dollar and oil here, they're we're still not out of you know, the woods by any means. Um, and then I just wanted to show you this. Go to slide 56. There's a phenomenon, I'm like I'm always watching market structure and obviously retail has become a bigger component of uh, the market now in since retail's been conditioned to buy the dip. You know, we dr- generally have seen and you also have the zero days till expiry options. So this is from Citadel Securities, but you can see over the month of March, Monday has been up on S&P, Nasdaq, and the Russell and then you can see as those options bleed because retail traders are morons and they can't actually understand that like your theta your theta decay happens and then they're waiting for the end of the week where oh, it's just a Hail Mary, right? Like they need the call options, it's usually buying call options, right? And then the call options bleed and then the delta sell the dealer sells the delta once the retail gets stomped out on a Friday. So I think that was largely this month's whole um, that was what we saw continuously for the month of March and now I think a lot of those volatility things have reset, retail's really take gotten hammered here and we'll see what happens uh looking forward based on the geopolitics. But I don't know, a lot of the it feels like you need a little consolidation before you have another roll lower. And then I wanted to show these other two things where it's all - it's not all bearish, it's primarily in tech. So if you go to slide 51, there's a couple interesting things going on. It's like i- there's this guy was named Diego Parrilla and he called about the he called the bubble economy and then the anti-bubble economy and so the bubble economy was all the non-profitable stuff going up, like the tech tech things and the real economy was the inverse, which is like you know, natural resources, metals, etc. Um, but we can actually see you know, global manufacturing PMIs going up here and at the same time you know, central banks are are not easing anymore. So um, and you if that rolls over, that's I think that's really pressuring like the high multiple type sectors. But if you go go to the next slide, this is the uh, Goldman Sachs industrial metals index. Like this is not a bearish chart, right? And there's a lot of things happening in the real economy. And like and then if you go to the next slide, the Dow Transports. Like that's a gr- there's money leaving tech and going into like real things now. Um, and interestingly enough I'll give a shout out to these guys because they're moving to Austin, Texas, but there's a hedge fund down here I think it's called Schottenfeld Capital and their whole premise is to to invest in things that are real. And so this you know, if you get this you know, not only are they nailing the macro trade Austin, Texas, but they're nailing this generational trade from like you know, high multiple software stuff to like real things that you need for the economy. And I think like that that is a secular play here that's really kind of you know, important. Um, and we're seeing that on the ground. And then if you let's see, the last one is tr- if you go to the next one, I did the tran- transportation index versus QQQ and you can kind of see I circled the low, it's a little hard to see here, but this is the ratio between the two and we we're at a low where in 2000 we saw you know, the tech bubble burst and then the Dow Transports took off. So the the bottom green part is the ratio of when when that green line is rising, that means transports are outperforming and when it's falling, that means tech is outperforming. So we're you know, if this keeps up and you see the capital concentration out of tech into like real stuff, I think this you know, I think this line should should mean revert to the upside.","offset":711,"duration":363},{"text":"Felix: That's a sick, I like the way you put that all together with the market structure initially, too, because I think it really it leads into also what Quinn's talking about, just being neutral on the whole punting on on Iran situation here where it just like the easy shorts have happened, there's been so much degrossing, hedging. Um, I mean another one, too, is also this uh JPMorgan collar trade that that expired on Tuesday. That's that's you know, increasingly moving- I mean this is the whole theme, right? Is that there's these these macro ideas, but then the markets are so dislocated from those fundamentals and everybody goes insane because we're actually just being driven by these Opex flows, these CTAs, these uh JPMorgan collars that act as magnets to around expiry. So you know, you can see where actually, hold on, let me get this chart here. Um, this is a sweet chart from our our buddy Andy Constan, just looking at tracking that collar. And you can see right on the expiry on Tuesday, it we kind of expired right at it on the on the long put side and then as soon as that began the roll, markets rallied like crazy on that Tuesday. And you know, everybody's attributing it to it to like a single head like where's the news, what's the news, what did Trump say? And it's just like dude, this is just market structure. Like there's just it's just like every like it's just a game it's just a, you know, it's a Ponzi like you say Tyler. Like it's just all these like quant-driven flows and passive flows. It's just a - I don't know -","offset":1074,"duration":85},{"text":"Tyler: It's just a different management. If you think about it like I've been trying to relate it to if you think about it as if like a a manufacturing um plant for automobiles 50 years ago. You know, it was used to you had to manually put these cars together with hands on a on a conveyor belt. Now they're automated by robots and that's essentially kind of like the stock market's gotten way more efficient, but in that efficiency, you still have these moments where when stuff breaks down, when the robot breaks down, you really have drastic outcomes where that really can screw things up uh, because there's you know, it was my whole point about when you have a heterogeneous market with thousands of different things interacting, you don't really have systemic risk. But when you have a homogeneous market where all these things are have the same incentives and they have the same programmatic quant things, it makes for more sys- systemic risk, which is like that robot breaks down on a conveyor line and then you don't know what to do, right? Like you're then you have to buy all sorts of insurance and everyone rushes to buy the insurance, you know, because the supply chains are messed up. And so I think that's like the new because the world is so centralized and so efficient in a lot of ways, it causes when things start getting rocked it it makes me just want to start like a long vol fund and whenever whenever vol just spikes, oh you just sell it. Like you just sit there and you own insurance when it's cheap and you sell the insurance when it's expensive and you know it's going to happen because of these market structure types of things. So reach out to me if you want to - I'm just kidding.","offset":1159,"duration":98},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, go go talk to Nassim Taleb about that or something.","offset":1257,"duration":3},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, yeah, exactly. But it's happening more frequently because of centralized, I think.","offset":1260,"duration":8},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah. I mean it it's like when people want a reason why, you know, what did Trump say or whatever that the market's up um both days, it's like look at the VIX, it's down huge. So it's just this mechanical rebuying and no news, nothing changed. In fact, Trump's still saying throughout the whole time like, you know, aggressive things and it it just kind of I think you just need to see either the labor market deteriorate or you know, maybe it's boots on the ground, maybe it's whatever to to really frighten people. Like we all know that people I think there's still enough belief that things are not going to get extremely worse from here. I I think the outlook is horrendous. I mean, I think the inflation outlook is is totally being slept on for how for what oil prices are doing. I I think bonds are the next year to drop.","offset":1268,"duration":54}],"startTime":711},{"title":"Oil Prices & Alternative Energy Future","summary":"The conversation shifts to oil price manipulation, the lack of a U.S. supply response, and Pippa Malmgren's thesis that the U.S. might leverage nuclear fusion to counter geopolitical energy threats.","entries":[{"text":"Felix: That's the thing oil - oil prices aren't high enough for demand destruction but they're high enough for inflation. And that's actually the double-edged sword of what they're trying to do with manipulating these markets of trying to keep oil suppressed is that you're actually you're keeping it in the corridor of inflation without getting to the corridor of demand destruction. You could make the argument it's actually almost better for it to go higher because then it then you get the demand destruction like central bank's can actually fucking do something, but we're stuck in the corridor of of everybody's frozen and then we just have the inflationary side.","offset":1322,"duration":29},{"text":"Quinn: Well you also get the you also get the supply response if you let the market do its thing and find natural prices. But if you suppress prices and don't let it trade freely, there's no production response. If you look at rig counts, there's no uptick in U.S. rig counts in the Permian nowhere. No one is this whole month. Yes, it takes some time, you know, you you can't just get on the horn and mobilize dozens of rigs, but it's one month in and and there's no supply response in the U.S. and that that's not good. So you have to let -","offset":1351,"duration":36},{"text":"Felix: Yeah. I mean how do you plan a rig count coming online when you're when you're you know the other side of your trade is Scott Bessent in the front months or something?","offset":1387,"duration":7},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah, right. And so then and then you still have people hedging out in the back end. I think back to Andy uh a trade I - so yesterday I loaded up on front-dated oil um because you know part of the thesis that he wasn't going to end the war and it was it's not endable right now. And um, that paid huge and then I that idea floating around a about the huge differential because you know front months at like 110 but then December's only at 70 bucks. And so then like but but the things they're doing, selling front, buying back, doing these like basis trades, like manipulating the market, it you're on the same side as them then if you're buying the long-dated stuff because it like you said, Felix, it basically keeps demand in and helps prices stay higher for longer. So there's no you can't control inflation when the cat's out of the bag like this, even though they're going to try.","offset":1394,"duration":55},{"text":"Tyler: You know what on that point, this this was a really divergent view was I read Pippa Malmgren's last piece and who I want to ask her to come hopefully she can come in the next couple weeks, but she talked about maybe maybe this is all planned because like what does you know high oil prices really in from the Straits of Hormuz really kills China more and what if the biggest news she said that everyone missed was there was a I believe it was like a nuclear fusion breakthrough in late March, or maybe it was late February, where we figured out how to like unlock nuclear fusion in SMRs. So essentially like you could have nuclear power on a small basis. So what hurts China the most when we have this huge generational unlock from you know nuclear fusion and and small modular reactors, where it's like we're moving into the 21st century and the as in the U.S. and if you want to be in, you know, she calls it from molecules to atoms. We're we're moving from molecules to atoms meaning being stuck on an oil type uh petrodollar versus being stuck on, you know, a nuclear new type of of you know backing energy backing to whatever currency's going to win, right? And I think this is a really interesting divergent point, which is like maybe they don't want to rush to get oil prices lower because that we're a relative winner in that game and especially when you have this new technological unlock, it lowers our cost of capital at if your energy goes from you know old school oil to a nuclear solar type thing. I mean, what that makes us win the 21st century game. I don't know if that's it sounds nice.","offset":1449,"duration":111},{"text":"Felix: But I will say yeah, she's good at putting out those divergent mapping ideas. I I don't know about the track record of them, but they're how's the global peace dividend working? Yeah, that one didn't that one didn't - well but you know like these things are all I think from if you zoom out -","offset":1560,"duration":15},{"text":"Quinn: But China's ahead of us in nuclear, they're ahead of us in solar, they're ahead of us in using natural gas for transportation. China's absolutely eating our lunch on every one of these other energy sources.","offset":1575,"duration":12},{"text":"Tyler: That's why I would love to have her on and like kind of -","offset":1587,"duration":3},{"text":"Felix: That would be great, yeah. I would love that, that would be awesome.","offset":1590,"duration":3}],"startTime":1322},{"title":"Fuel Surcharges & Rising Treasury Yields","summary":"The hosts note Amazon's new fuel surcharge as a sign of incoming inflation inputs. They analyze rising U.S. Treasury yields bear-flattening the curve before pausing for an ad break.","entries":[{"text":"Tyler: - to to hear the contra, but like from I could see that future if that's really like the age of abundance and we move into this new frontier society, that's great. But you also have to deal with like the credit problems if you're in this giant debt bubble and credit constricts and you can't grow your way out of it, then you know, shit goes south real fast. Um, I think um to earlier point about the inflationary dynamic is yeah, like war is inflationary, plus when it's focused on an oil shock like this. And there's been a couple different news headlines come out today I want to get you guys's take on. The first one is that Amazon is actually putting on a 3.5% fuel surcharge on their fulfillment. So you know, it's like here we are, if if oil was 150, you know, maybe people wouldn't be buying as many things from Amazon, but because it's at 100, instead we're getting a 3.5% surcharge.","offset":1593,"duration":53},{"text":"Tyler: You know what on a small basis, I got a buddy who runs a landscaping company in Massachusetts and he puts he's putting a surcharge on his all the oil he uses for you know cutting people's lawns, doing you know all sorts of yard work. And you know, so this is this is going to factor into inflation in the future, which makes me really suspect of uh yields. And I actually got a good chart on uh let's see, this is from my buddy John at BTIG. He uh he's got one of the a really good note morning note, but if you go to slide 50, he shows you since the beginning of the war, this is how much U.S. treasuries have have risen across the yield curve and you can kind of see um you know this is pretty consistent and now you're getting the the cost spiral on from Amazon. I'm sure it's everybody you know tacking on some of the oil tax.","offset":1646,"duration":63},{"text":"Felix: Yeah.","offset":1709,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: Jordi Vistor said basically these inputs we're going to see flow through you know for the next couple months into CPI. So things can get a little funky on - what what this chart shows too, that's important to keep in mind, is that all the short-dated stuff uh except for the 12 months, the white line, but the two-year, the five-year, um they've risen much more than the 30-year and 10-year. So the curve is flattened through this period, basically people investors saying this is going to keep policy restrictive longer and therefore growth is going to be hurt by it. But it's bear flattened as every all yields have moved up. And the real problem I think is what happens when presumably you know June comes around, first first new Fed meeting, uh you're going to get policy response into the election, oil's still trading elevated, the inflation's kind of being pushed through at that point and then you start to cut and stimulate. You know assuming I'd imagine they also we haven't seen it yet, but probably do some sort of fiscal stimulus into the election. So then you get a bear steepening because so it's just yeah, the bonds are awfully here, awful awful awful.","offset":1710,"duration":78},{"text":"Quinn: [Ad break for Arkham Intelligence]","offset":1788,"duration":48},{"text":"[Ad break for Blockworks Investor Relations]","offset":1836,"duration":49}],"startTime":1593},{"title":"Yield Regimes & Radical Debt Policies","summary":"Felix shares a yield curve regime map, prompting a discussion on Jeffrey Gundlach's suggestion that the government might eventually have to cut Treasury coupons to manage the spiraling national debt.","entries":[{"text":"Felix: So this is a I've been considering on my Claude journey. I I made a twos-tens regime map. I just realized the way I screenshotted this it doesn't show the color codes, but yeah -","offset":1885,"duration":11},{"text":"Tyler: I was like what is this?","offset":1896,"duration":1},{"text":"Felix: Pretty, it's very pretty Felix.","offset":1897,"duration":1},{"text":"Felix: Thank you. I'll I'll say it verbally, but the green, so this is a rolling five day and it shows the green is the bear flattener. Um, the pink is bull bull flattener, the rest is yeah, the the pink one which is around what you were saying, Quinn, is the bear steepener. So um, you can see it's come down a lot. Um, and I've been thinking a lot about where does that go from here and if you look at like inflation swaps, contrasting that with what we just looked at with the yields, it's an interesting situation. You can see like the the one-year, two-year is up a lot, the five-year is up modestly since the since the war. Um, 30 years actually continued the trend down. So I don't know, kind of in the same camp where I see a lot of folks trying to bid the long end on this idea of like a recession play, but I think you're in this again in this weird corridor where you need things to get worse for that to happen. Um, so you're sort of in the doldrums.","offset":1898,"duration":54},{"text":"Quinn: But not worse enough where it brings down receipts and it's this double-edged sword of all assets up or all down because bonds if you plot them next to stock the indices, they've been trading like the indices. So -","offset":1952,"duration":14},{"text":"Tyler: Gundlach had a interesting call. He was on this podcast with I think her name's Julia LaRoche. He said this is the first time we've seen you know in these crisis scenarios bond yields have risen and there's no way out. Like they are so screwed here and he's he's basically saying they're going to have to do something crazy and he was even calling for everyone who has treasuries, all of a sudden oh your your coupon is cut by say like 50%. Imagine if you woke up overnight, it was just this giant like overnight policy where they just said oh by the way, your treasuries are down by 50% and the dollar rolls out of bed, like gold doubles. Like you could have there's a it's essentially a debt jubilee, right? Where they have to get the rates down on in debt and treasury debt because it's getting egregious and if you have a recession it's going to get more egregious. So you have to get you're going we're going to get into wacky wacky policy mode here.","offset":1966,"duration":62},{"text":"Felix: Gundlach - Gundlach, those words came out of his mouth, he said what if what if they cut coupons?","offset":2028,"duration":7},{"text":"Felix: Yes, he did, but he -","offset":2035,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: I've heard him say this before about um he does think this is like a medium or like a a something that's on the cards at some point down the line.","offset":2036,"duration":8},{"text":"Quinn: And he's legitimate. He's he's the Bond King, or one of them.","offset":2044,"duration":5},{"text":"Tyler: And you know Lyn Alden's been saying the same thing. She had a great interview with uh was it Peter McCormack, too, and I I I'm seeing the same thing, but here's a good chart for that. Go to 62. So this is uh this is gold. You can see gold, there's secular stuff going on that's probably going to work. So gold producer cash flow is the dark blue line, that's on the left, so you can see their like margins are huge. But then if you look to the the relative performance of gold equities versus gold bullion, we're at even though you know margins are more than double what they were at in 2020, the the ratio is still the same. So like if you have some sort of crazy policy like a yield curve control or like a tax on boomers vi- via like you know they won't even know if you just cut their divi- you know cut their you know treasuries by all a percentage point, oh by the way your coupon's 3% instead of 2%. Sorry, the dollar would roll over and I mean god you're looking at some crazy stuff happening and I just don't you know that's why I think you got to look at what displays relative strength in sell-offs and that's where you want to be going forward.","offset":2049,"duration":78}],"startTime":1885},{"title":"Bitcoin & Wartime Capital Allocation","summary":"The group examines Bitcoin's relative stability and the shift back to positive stock-bond correlations. They emphasize the importance of allocating capital into scarce, real-world assets during times of geopolitical conflict.","entries":[{"text":"Felix: Well you know what's been holding up okay is Bitcoin. I feel like we we've stopped talking about it for the last while, I've seen we've gotten a little bit of shit for that from some people. But it's just been chopping around, but it hasn't been breaking down lower either. And you know it's not getting the big sexy gains either, but -","offset":2127,"duration":15},{"text":"Tyler: It makes me nervous, which means it's either a low or there's one last big -","offset":2142,"duration":4},{"text":"Felix: That's that's always what's so hard, right? Because it was the thing that sold off first even before this whole thing, you know, January and all of that. Um, so either it's just technical support, though, that's what makes me nervous is like if you look at gold's got great support, defended it you know big. But Bitcoin has - I agree - relatively thin. But any time we start talking about haircuts on sovereign debt, I'm like hm, you know, you start you have to at least put it into the conversation. I don't know where it sits with it, but -","offset":2146,"duration":26},{"text":"Tyler: You know what people are figuring out, though, is go to this last slide, slide 63. I think they're figuring out that you can't actually save money in fixed income anymore because look at stocks as a percentage of household financial assets and like in a world where the policy is getting wonky like Gundlach and Lyn Alden everyone kind of sees, I don't know where you put your money besides stocks. And maybe that's the phenomenon of why things mean revert higher anyway is because it's just this is the great rotation out of debt.","offset":2172,"duration":37},{"text":"Felix: You know what's I have another one here just to bounce off of that. But you know what's so insane is that like the entire modern financial system was based on this little phase here where stocks and bonds are negatively correlated and like we completely ignored history where it's like mostly positively correlated and then we just built up every portfolio on this idea of like a negative correlation between stocks and bonds and now we're just we're not going to this new weird regime, we're going back to normal.","offset":2209,"duration":31},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, yeah, it's a really good point. It's a really good point.","offset":2240,"duration":1},{"text":"Quinn: I mean, where people are putting their money, Tyler, is when I mean the labor market's horrendous, savings rate is falling, stock market is at all-time highs. So people need to spend and they're putting the their money from financial assets and financial market that market capitalization, which is at the most extreme level it's ever been in history relative to real things, they're they're taking the money and putting it in in things they have to buy to live and enjoy life and so that's what makes these periods so tough because like post-COVID -","offset":2241,"duration":37},{"text":"Felix: Or hedge their employment with the AI supply chain. That's what I'm doing.","offset":2278,"duration":6},{"text":"Quinn: That's what makes these periods so tough to for investors because it's everything that's it's very difficult to to maneuver and the things that work over the periods are are like the least sexy, the places no one's ever no one's been and you know think are very just left for dead and but look at what's worked over the last it's like all the most boring businesses, people said oil is never going above $60 a barrel again. Like I'm I'm more in the camp of Michael Howell had a a nice piece. I'm in the I'm a like mean reversion guy uh over over long periods of time. Like if history's given you a hundred years of trading look back in in the gold-oil ratio. Like I'm gonna bet that it's gonna adhere to the to that decades-long trend line and so what Michael Howell kind of was arguing for in the piece, not not that it's going to happen today or tomorrow, but that gold implies the gold-oil ratio implies $250 oil sometime in the next you know multiple years. And and so if you think about it like from the Bitcoin perspective, okay yes um debasement, monetization of debt, right. Bitcoin's price at some point will stop going down in nominal terms because the the denominator's getting debased. So - but that doesn't necessarily mean that in real terms it will be a good investment because you need peace, you need um animal spirits, you need you know fun times and you'll get countertrend bounces here. But over the next if you look out over the next year, like do you envision us immediately anytime soon going back to a place where you know everyone just relies on globalization and believes shipping lanes are open and you know my neighbor's gonna give me that commodity that scarce one when I need it and I trust the the U.S. treasury to hold my funds in treasury? No, none of this stuff. So when you think about this is wartime allocation of capital. And and this isn't just about the Iran situation. This is about what's been building for three years, four years, five years and it just favors scarce resources you can't print. And right now leading up to this, it was gold and metals, now it's oil and energy. You know soon it might be food, it might go back to metals, but these are things you need. And if everybody's piled in the gold, that's why it's not working, it's trading like equities because at some point these countries gotta spend their gold, they bought gold as a fiat hedge, as a store of value. And at some point if they aren't getting oil, you know UK just announced some stimulus measures for their citizens, some people I know there said there's lines at every gas station and four of the five are out of like gasoline. Like wow these are there's serious issues and people are going to throw the kitchen sink at it.","offset":2284,"duration":188}],"startTime":2127},{"title":"Distressed Debt & Demand Destruction","summary":"Looking at the rising high-yield distressed debt universe, the hosts discuss how prolonged high commodity prices drain consumer wealth, leading to demand destruction in areas like expensive, unhedged airline travel.","entries":[{"text":"Tyler: Check this, go to slide 57, JPMorgan had their uh default monitor this week, their note and this is the combined high-yield loan distressed universe, it's hit it's highest level since June of 2023. You know if they can't figure out how to get policy rates lower, these things have a tendency to spiral and we saw a little bit of loosening from the credit spreads this week, that keeps going you could see a major squeeze in risk assets, but this definitely these things are hard to unwind and we've seen obviously what so there was a great tweet it said something like if Iran never happened all we'd be talking about is like Blue Owl distressed debt and private equity problems because like that's really a huge issue that's not going away anytime soon and can really spiral. But and that'll affect like all sorts of asset classes eventually, but it could just be a slow default, it's really I don't know it's hard to decipher, but I do know that's a real big issue underlying this all.","offset":2472,"duration":69},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah I I think one of the things I actually wrote about this week I haven't put it out yet, but um I was just kind of like blank sheet of paper, it's like if I look into the into the future what what are the things I see most clearly? And one of them is sustained higher for longer commodity prices. Like yeah okay, we get a resolution oil drops 20 bucks, I'm not talking about that, but we're not going back to 60. Maybe it goes to 80, you know that's probably a great dip to buy um and the whole complex is now a scarce thing that you have to put a premium on. So I see higher for longer there. Uh and the other thing I see is kind of tangential is like conflict not going away and in one of the best ways to play that in addition to I mentioned the long-dated oil futures contracts is credit problems because the consumer's getting hit both two ways, one um it's a it's a demand destruction because higher prices, inflation, they can't travel, the things more expensive, it costs them more money to get to work. So higher gas energy food prices really affects consumers, but then two the negative reflexive wealth effect as as already going into this savings rate was falling, so people were dipping into their wealth via assets and savings and that's falling reflexively via lower asset prices. So now their their kitty to to spend from is also lower. So what does that look like in the future? Like that looks like cutting back your summer vacation plans, that looks like you know kids aren't getting you know the extra thing. And so that's just weaker and that's credit credit problems. At the end of the day, like I I think financials like I don't really see a good case to be made for financials here um and so I in small caps and all these sort of cyclical uh we were saying a couple weeks ago before the war, we said the cyclical reacceleration, yes there's some bright spots, green shoots, but without Fed accommodation and and follow through it's it's dicey and now it's -","offset":2541,"duration":121},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, yeah, we get the emerging little sprinkles of it and then now it's totally smoked. You know, like we went from quite a few cuts priced to almost zero cuts priced, you know. You have a doubling of oil price you just can't you just can't get that sort of a reacceleration when it's like just barely alive. Um, it's yeah, it's it's done.","offset":2662,"duration":20},{"text":"Tyler: Here's a good snippet, I have to fly home to Jersey uh just from Jersey to Austin and we were booking flights for my family, you guys this is little microcosm, guess guess give me a guess on how many for five people how much the flights were all together round trip?","offset":2682,"duration":20},{"text":"Felix: Three grand.","offset":2702,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: 3,500 bucks. Bro, stick for lower for one round trip flight and you're just like eventually that's gotta cause demand destruction, you know.","offset":2703,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Totally. I guess yeah, I mean to earlier point, like the 150-dollar barrel situation, that's like the very quick demand destruction but there is these more long-tailed ones. Um, you know, you're starting to see different airlines start to cancel these flights uh you know these flight routes that just aren't as profitable now at at this sort of level. And you know what I realized too is over the past few years, airlines have stopped hedging their jet fuel. Have you guys heard about this? Like for whatever for whatever reason the trend these days in the airline industry's to not hedge your jet fuel, so none of them are hedged going into this.","offset":2715,"duration":31},{"text":"Tyler: Scary. Yeah, there's you know what else you know what else I've been thinking about too is like so you have the price insensitive buyer and then you have like stuff like Hyperliquid that you can take out 40x leverage on, you know, oil contracts. It's like how how much more volatile we're going to be in certain asset classes. Like this is all the market structure stuff, but -","offset":2746,"duration":25},{"text":"Quinn: I mean it's just classic it's how cycles work because they probably got berated for last few years like why are you hedging oil, it only goes down, aren't you don't you know this, you're stupid and then right when they it's just classic. Like that it's just how cycles always work.","offset":2771,"duration":16},{"text":"Felix: Yeah. You hedge after the crisis and then right before the crisis you're you're like wait why am I paying all this carry so then you yeah.","offset":2787,"duration":9}],"startTime":2472},{"title":"AI Compute Demand & Infrastructure","summary":"Despite macro headwinds, Tyler and Felix highlight the explosive demand for GPU rentals and AI computing power, questioning how data center infrastructure will continue to be financed.","entries":[{"text":"Tyler: You try to get the max P multiple off your you know by cutting little corners and then it's a sharp reversal. But this is to to that point, this is very typical late cycle. You have the dollar rallying, the oil rallying, credit spreads widening. Like the these things they take a while to play out before they really hit earnings. Uh the one thing that's really confusing me on check this out, this is uh last chart I promise and then I'll stop. But this is the GPU rentals, slide 45. Like we're clearly in some sort of secular growth in AI. Like there's no doubt about it. Will the credit markets completely punish these these stocks before they can build out the infrastructure? Possibly. But look at the demand for this stuff. I mean it's your GPUs are rentals are rising and I mean from from the OpenAI raises $100 billion. Like that's that's kind of nuts. Like that money's got to go somewhere and have a multiplier effect to it. So -","offset":2796,"duration":65},{"text":"Felix: And Anthropic, yeah. I continue to be in the camp that like the demand for compute is way higher than we expect because like if you look at actually what's going on right now, like ever since the AI agent wave that started a few months ago, like dude the I'm getting smoked on my Claude usage. I have a max plan and like all this stuff and suddenly it's like I do I try to do a few things and I'm and and my I get smoked on my usage. So like there's I imagine everybody like this right now is that they're throttling the usage because suddenly everybody's trying to actually do things with it. Um and so it's limiting the amount of innovation that you can do, but if you increase the compute, new innovation, new ideas. So I don't know, I I don't want to completely fade it.","offset":2861,"duration":42},{"text":"Tyler: I don't either. I think I think that's something that you have to really it's going to be volatile in the macro, but like underneath fundamentals are pretty damn good.","offset":2903,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, I guess I guess the big question is who's who's the one underwriting that compute, these data centers, right? And and what are the cost inputs? Because you know it's stuff like, you know, semis which is related to helium, which is related to the Middle East where there's these helium- like there's that stuff, there's the fact that like the financing deals are coming from the big dogs in Dubai and now nobody's actually living in Dubai, so suddenly tax revenues are down, so suddenly you can't finance- like it just it's a cascade, right? And that's why -","offset":2915,"duration":28}],"startTime":2796},{"title":"Politics, Interventions & Inflation Risks","summary":"The conversation shifts to how the Trump administration might handle credit market breakdowns and AI transitions. The hosts weigh the inflationary risks of desperate macro interventions and the potential for severe social backlash.","entries":[{"text":"Tyler: Well I was going to say, that's why I'm watching the macro so hard here and these levels and in particular FX. If you start to see funky FX vol and you get that repatriation, it could p- put the nail in the coffin on a lot of stuff. But given the genesis plan, this is the Manhattan Project, right? They ha- they can't derail the capital markets and so I bet Trump would just if it got to that level where the credit markets started shutting off, he would probably say we're out of we're out of Iran, we're going back and like you know we're going to unleash all of our reserves and by the way, no one has to pay taxes and by the way you know like that's the vol controller thing that you it's really hard to play, but secularly you know you have to pick. I think there's there's a couple themes that that work and it's just going to be really hard through the vol. You know like the gold gold is is I feel like it's secular here, I feel like AI's probably secular, I feel like space is probably secular, but you're going to have these vicious drawdowns.","offset":2943,"duration":69},{"text":"Quinn: That that's what we're getting into a difficult period though because it's not guaranteed that those mechanisms work when inflation is spiraling and you try price controls that make production worse and then stimulate like because if Trump announces stimu- stimulus tomorrow and forces the Fed down 75 basis points and all these things, I'm not buying semiconductors, I'm buying I'm buying Main Street stuff, I'm buying inflation protection, I'm buying I'm selling bonds, I'm buying I'm buying real real things that everyone can go get their hands on. I'm not I'm selling semis. So that's why I just it's such a delicate back against the wall balance right now. And I'm not saying -","offset":3012,"duration":48},{"text":"Felix: Yeah.","offset":3060,"duration":1},{"text":"Quinn: - actually right now I have I went into the weekend with zero semiconductor shorts on, I I covered my Nvidia, so I'm you know that's not even just I actually think there's a little bit of a with how beaten down Mag 7 and you know the megacaps have become, I think people might actually seek them out as safe havens over over the next few weeks if we get a bounce and you know flight to quality and safety type of thing. So I don't love that that play right here, but -","offset":3061,"duration":29},{"text":"Tyler: I do think it sets up because really what you do, right, Tyler, if you if we're go- if credit spreads are blowing out, if um the labor market's weakening and they step in to support AI in a time where Main Street's already just been getting the hammer for two two years straight, you're just guaranteeing sowing the seeds with a bow on top the demise -","offset":3090,"duration":25},{"text":"Tyler: French Revolution.","offset":3115,"duration":1},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, I mean the Main Street hates AI, you know. They're they're protesting data centers in their towns and losing the yeah.","offset":3116,"duration":7},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah. So if which I'm not this is not I actually think you're probably right that they will do everything to to support but the second they do that and you play that maybe you play that bounce or if you don't you just wait for the short again, it will sow the seeds politically and societally for that demise to be even worse because it it will be just an absolute slap in the face times a million if unemployment's you know shooting up to five.","offset":3123,"duration":30},{"text":"Tyler: Our biggest problem with that is you have a guy in office that will he's like the lowest ratings of any president in history I think it just came out today. And if you want to message that this is really important from a geopolitical standpoint to win in AI, you have to have a high trust rating and you have to be able to like say, hey we're going to take a pain as a team. You know we're going to do this together and then this is a national priority as a labor and we're going to make sure we listen to the labor pool and and say, hey we're watching out for you and like when things get bad enough we're going to pass policies that take care of you in this transition. You have to have this messaging way you got to be way out ahead of it and and this is part of the situational awareness piece is like you're going to have people fall through the cracks as this stuff is so productive. But you need to b- you need to be out there in policy and already formulating ideas and messaging it. And he's he's behind on Iran messaging like he could have messaged this way better. And and it's because he's like a he's like a TV star or like a reality TV star that likes drama rather than like actually keeping the social fabric together. And so I don't know he's going your propensity my point is your propensity for these things to break with Trump is way higher even though he might have the national like geopolitical priority correct. He doesn't have the capability of actually doing that. And it's based off the you know his polls are showing that like he's kind of just a narcissistic loser in that sense and like maybe it works, you know, maybe it works and he's in 10 years we think he's the greatest thing ever even though you know right now we I like to fade the extremes, right? And everyone hates him so much right now, maybe maybe there's some genius to it. But I don't know, I the Epstein stuff really the fucking lost me. Excuse my Fr- and like now he you know he throws Pam Bondi out to dry the whole thing is -","offset":3153,"duration":129},{"text":"Felix: That's that's because we lost the the key level at 50,000 on the Dow so she had to go.","offset":3282,"duration":6},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, yeah, you know what that might be a great point. In hindsight like watching that and be like that was the top of the market. That was the absolute top. Imagine.","offset":3288,"duration":10},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, yeah, oh man. And now that she's fired, it's like yeah.","offset":3298,"duration":3},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah. The the thing is that you know put the politics aside like emotions and I don't like him and I like her better and whatever, at the end of the day, the the incentives here point to inflation. And inflation is really bad for risk assets because it sends bond yields higher and equity multiples lower and nobody wins. And so whether or not like what we think he's doing is good or dumb or bad or crazy, like that's that's kind of the direction we're headed. Like they're going to stimulate, they're going to figure out ways to try and support markets and support the economy and it's just like the path is sort of paved. It's just kind of like or the destination is is kind of paved, it's sort of the path now. And so he's like, well we might as well make the path bumpy so we can insider trade it. But like yeah, it's there's not a lot they can do um and I think that's that's why as an investor you should be more cautious going into into the midterms because you have this huge vol event sitting out on the horizon and the stakes are you know fever pitch record stakes like he's going to get impeached if he loses, yada yada yada and the the you know the desperation is rising with it. And and so you're just not saying go buy volatility here because it's super elevated, but that's why volatility is so high is because it's correlated, it's people have no idea, people are expecting wilder and wilder things. Uh you know we thought Venezuela was still this year, that we thought that was crazy and that was literally still this year and then we said it's going to get crazier and then Iran happened. And it's going to still get crazier. And so cash is a big position and you know sometimes it's just it's just better to to know that these are this is what's going on and and not try and you know get too cute about it because it's just frankly not going to be good for most most people in the markets. Unless you have inside information and you're out you're out of the administration. But Hedgesat tried it and he he he tried to front run some defense spending and then still got murked. So that just shows how hard it is to be in the markets.","offset":3301,"duration":150}],"startTime":2943},{"title":"Geopolitical Desperation on Social Media","summary":"The hosts briefly critique the bizarre, desperate, and overly aggressive behavior seen on political Twitter regarding global conflicts.","entries":[{"text":"Tyler: You know I gotta I gotta say this is just like Hedgesat had this tweet that he said it's like into the Stone Ages or something. And I just I never like I think of maybe it's me getting older and being more like I never root for death. And it's such a weird you know -","offset":3451,"duration":22},{"text":"Felix: Dude they make Twitter video montages of them like killing people. Are you kidding me?","offset":3473,"duration":4},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah it's it's really bizarre. And I just I'm not like you know I don't get it. And it desperate it desperation causes you know irrational thinking.","offset":3477,"duration":11},{"text":"Quinn: It feels it feels like beta male to me where I'm like you know the alpha male sits there and he's quiet and he's you know lets his confidence speak for himself. It's just so beta and it's sorry.","offset":3488,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, we just need to get somebody under 30 years old on here to explain us if this is cool or not because I don't see it anyway.","offset":3500,"duration":7},{"text":"Quinn: It's it's it's it's what anyone would do in these this position is what it is. It's just when your back's against the wall, when you not when you don't have the winning cards, you lost all your leverage, you lost approval, you lost confidence in yourself, you know, it's what humans do in these situations. I I think it's a ugly side of humans for sure.","offset":3507,"duration":23}],"startTime":3451},{"title":"Outro Banter: Haircuts & Houseplants","summary":"The episode wraps up with lighthearted jokes about Felix's slicked-back hairstyle, interior design in bachelor pads, and how having children will eventually disrupt their sleep schedules.","entries":[{"text":"Tyler: I I'm open to the contra and proven wrong in hindsight, like honestly like I try to keep you as an investor you can't be too dogmatic about these things. If there is a bigger geopolitical 4D chess thing going on right now with Saudi Arabia and all these other countries that we don't know about, totally in hindsight that'll I can admit that, but right now it's not looking good. And and lastly before we end, how come I didn't get the slick back hair black shirt note? Like what is this is this like Johnny Depp and you know Cusack getting together like you got you even got the little swirl coming down, it's great.","offset":3530,"duration":38},{"text":"Felix: Look at this thing, I know dude.","offset":3568,"duration":2},{"text":"Quinn: Next week we'll plan something and loop you in this time.","offset":3570,"duration":3},{"text":"Felix: And you guys on my side I gotta start tanning because like you guys down in the South are just looking good. I'm up here in Canada looking pretty rough.","offset":3573,"duration":8},{"text":"Tyler: You're pasty, bro. I will say you guys are definitely, you know, I know how you you you're in serious relationships is that you guys have plants. No single male has a plant. It's like -","offset":3581,"duration":14},{"text":"Quinn: I actually went to this nursery last weekend to to accumulate more plants.","offset":3595,"duration":4},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, every every bachelor just got like it's like the most stone-cold room, nothing on the walls, it's like just a TV and a seat.","offset":3599,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, TV, a campy chair and then like your your computer.","offset":3611,"duration":5},{"text":"Tyler: Dude yeah all grown up man. Just trying to be like you. Yeah now you got art and you got like plants and stuff, it's great. Look at you guys.","offset":3616,"duration":8},{"text":"Felix: We're trying, we're trying out here. Appreciate it.","offset":3624,"duration":3},{"text":"Quinn: Doing our best.","offset":3627,"duration":1},{"text":"Felix: We missed you, Tyler, glad you're back.","offset":3628,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: All right bro. I can't wait to roast you guys when you have kids because you're going to come in and be like, I didn't sleep, I got I didn't sleep with take two hours of sleep, how do you do this?","offset":3629,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Yeah the show's going to fall apart, you're just going to be there laughing at us and be like see!","offset":3641,"duration":3},{"text":"Tyler: I'll have to carry it. All right good, it's good to be back, that was awesome.","offset":3644,"duration":5},{"text":"Felix: All right fellas. Have a good weekend, Happy Easter everybody.","offset":3649,"duration":3},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah, Happy long weekend everybody, yeah. Happy Easter.","offset":3652,"duration":3},{"text":"[outro music plays]","offset":3655,"duration":15}],"startTime":3530}],"entries":[{"text":"Tyler: This is wartime allocation of capital. And this isn't just about the Iran situation. This is about what's been building for three years, four years, five years. It just favors scarce resources you can't print.","offset":0,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Oil prices aren't high enough for demand destruction, but they're high enough for inflation. You could make the argument it's actually almost better for it to go higher, then you get the demand destruction like central bank's gonna actually fucking do something. We're stuck in the corridor of everybody's frozen.","offset":12,"duration":14},{"text":"Quinn: The incentives here point to inflation, and inflation is really bad for risk assets because it sends bond yields higher and equity multiples lower. I think the outlook is horrendous.","offset":26,"duration":16},{"text":"Quinn: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of Blockworks. Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk. Terms and conditions apply. Do your own research.","offset":42,"duration":24},{"text":"[intro music plays]","offset":66,"duration":7},{"text":"Felix: All right, what's going on everybody? Welcome back to another roundup edition of Forward Guidance and we are back with the trio. We're back at home. No more conference, no more sick Tyler. The boys are back, the trio's back. Kind of feels like we didn't miss anything. Oil's still at 100 bucks. It's like nothing's changed in the last three weeks, so I guess we didn't miss anything in that whole time.","offset":73,"duration":23},{"text":"Tyler: It was at 110 now. There you go, yeah, it is. Did you guys notice I'm a little more svelte from my weeklong hiatus from food?","offset":96,"duration":10},{"text":"Felix: You look so good dude. It's not the red light tree tied? You're not on the GLPs or what?","offset":106,"duration":5},{"text":"Tyler: No, I lost like 10 pounds from that virus. I couldn't eat for like six days. It was terrible.","offset":111,"duration":7},{"text":"Felix: That's brutal.","offset":118,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, it wasn't fun.","offset":119,"duration":0},{"text":"Quinn: It is kind of groundhog day-esque because when I look at the Russell, we're closed basically smack dab where we were on Friday, March 6th. So it's like we just chopped everybody to shreds over the course of the month.","offset":119,"duration":13},{"text":"Felix: That's that's my whole thing is just like burning at the stake of put premium, even call premium, just premium everywhere just getting smoked as we just chop around. Like it's just brutal out there.","offset":132,"duration":10},{"text":"Tyler: You know what is so fascinating is like from an index basis, things - not much happens. But underneath the hood, if you look on like a sectoral basis, everything happens and that's really where all the alpha is generated. But you even notice from, you know, the - like you said, the indexes are unchanged, but some of the hedge fund performance numbers came out and some of these multi-platform funds got absolutely rocked, even in, you know, because single stock vol's super high and factor volatility's super high.","offset":142,"duration":29},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, the the potshops are all down like 4% over the last month or so, which is kind of nuts. You know who I saw was at the top, though, is Pierre Andurand, the French oil trader. He's up 30% month over month, which is kind of sick. Even though I mean, he was down like 50% last year. I don't know, his Sharpe ratio, I don't even know.","offset":171,"duration":20},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, he's got an iron stomach, dude.","offset":191,"duration":3},{"text":"Felix: Oh, dude, it's insane.","offset":194,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: We were talking about that is like, it's pretty incredible. Like you have to consistently manage risk to get to that point of success, to then have enough of your LPs to stick with you through that volatility. Like they - it's not like you're going to get like a billion dollars if you're that volatile at the start of your career. So you have to be doing something right to take those drawdowns and anyway, it's just kind of -","offset":195,"duration":21},{"text":"Felix: Yeah. It is an interesting comparison compared to the potshop model, where their drawdowns are pretty limited honestly, past that 4% because, you know, if you max out your risk limits there, you just get fired. So you know, there's probably a whole new cohort at the potshops for April. Um, the rest of those guys who are down 4% have all been fired. So you know, it's a new cohort in and, you know, just roll the dice once again.","offset":216,"duration":22},{"text":"Tyler: Absolutely.","offset":238,"duration":1},{"text":"Quinn: That must be the most stressful job in the whole entire world if in this market if you can't have any any lean.","offset":239,"duration":7},{"text":"Felix: You're down 1% this week. You're like, oh god. You're getting smoked by Trump tweets and then you just get carried out of your pod like man. I yeah, you know, it's the cool place these days, but that's a lot to handle.","offset":246,"duration":15},{"text":"Tyler: You know what existentially it's just not in my DNA because like I - I'd like to think like investing that's a risk management job. Like you - you might as well be like an insurance, you know, risk person, rather than like the whole point of investing is to grow the economy and be risk-forward. And if you have one good year as like a growth investor, you can like compound that. Although the guys that are the heads of the multi-platform funds and have figured out are clearly like, you know, what's just men of the world. But like if you're just a risk manager PM, like these these long-only guys, long-only schlobs that ride like, you know, frontier assets may crush it comparatively, with way less stress.","offset":261,"duration":47},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, I mean their mandate's long-only, you're just like, well, everything's down.","offset":308,"duration":4},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, just buy it, it's going up. You know, like, oh let's - we're going to invest in space stocks, yeah, let's go, let's keep going, pump this thing.","offset":312,"duration":9},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, yeah, all right. Um, anyway we're back from DAS. Great time, had some great interviews. Quinn had a great interview with with Tony G, TG Macro. We had a good roundup at Joseph Wang. I had my my fireside chat with Fed Governor Stephen Ryan, that was super cool. We put that out on the platform yesterday or Wednesday, this is coming out Friday. So check that out. But yeah, man, Tyler we missed you there.","offset":321,"duration":20},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, I really missed you guys. It was uh, you know, tough traveling these days, but I'm kind of getting out of it. Eventually I'll be -","offset":341,"duration":10},{"text":"Felix: Fed life.","offset":351,"duration":0},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, yeah, exactly. Um, all right well why don't we talk about where the market's at. Obviously like we were just saying, it's it's somewhat Groundhog Day in terms of the geopolitical headlines. Like we had this this big Trump speech last night, addressing the nation. Not a lot not a lot of new news, but it's always interesting to contrast that with positioning where we had, you know, off the back of two days of rallying going into that point and a lot of expectations it felt like baked into the market that he's going to potentially announce some sort of ceasefire. Um, just the fact that there's no new information still, you know, reiterating this idea of a couple more weeks and and all of that and markets sold off and here we are again just mental and just chopping around. Um, Quinn, what's your read on the markets? Start with you here, what's going on?","offset":351,"duration":45},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah, I I mean, my conviction has waned in terms of near-term direction. Have been very decidedly and convictedly bearish for the whole start of the year pretty much. I mean, playing it long short from the metals longs to the energy longs and pretty much short tech and related things the whole whole way down. But um, here I just think that like the market is so hedged and you kind of have to have - I wrote in in this morning - you kind of have to have an egg timer on your plays. Like we've been pounding the table bearish Mag 7 and things for for like three or four months and and they're kind of not going down anymore. Like I - I had some charts if we want to start on those.","offset":396,"duration":53},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, let's see them.","offset":449,"duration":1},{"text":"Quinn: So maybe start with slide 30. I - this one is global CTA positioning, basically just showing and these these might be like a week old, so for probably from last Friday. So just you know, maybe even more degrossing has happened this week. But this is CTA showing just a very extreme deleveraging. Positioning isn't at lows, but you know, in terms of one-month change is very low. The the next slide shows the CTA positioning's very very flat to short. Um, the next one is the the implied moves of of S&P one-week straddle cost, which is extremely elevated. Um, you can kind of see 2022 as a pretty good comp for probably the environment we're going into there with just structurally elevated for the year. The next one is uh, the Move index, one-month change, which is bond volatility. Obviously, you know, this is like fourth highest in the last number of years. Um, so that's a pretty big jump. Um, the next one is S&P futures asset manager positioning, uh rolling three-week change, huge huge decline. And then on the sentiment stuff, you have AAII bearish, next next slide, bearish sentiments moving up. Next one, consolidated positioning moving down. Fundamental long short on the next one are, you know, sharpest weekly reduction since Liberation Day. And then the last one is uh, Nasdaq members above the 50-day moving average, which is which is extremely low. So it you know, a lot of these kind of saying the same thing, but to me it's it's the market has delevered and degrossed a a fair bit amount. Like so much so that shorting at these areas is a very tough place to make money when when you see these types of of moves and factor in on top of that volatility skew and put uh, put um, demand is still very high. So we've degrossed tremendously the last, a lot of the long-onlys, the trend followers, systematics, and the market is still very hedged. So like it was an obvious short to me when the market wasn't so hedged, VIX was lower and no one had delevered and degrossed and now it's kind of like eh, I don't want to be the last guy at the party and I've I've pretty much used this week to trim. It was kind of funny because coming into the week, I stayed short over last weekend, which was kind of different because every Monday we got a bounce and I stayed short, kind of covered early in the week and I was like so fatigued from - I was carrying very large risk on on this these positions for like two, three months straight. I was like all right, I'm going to just kind of wrap it up for for a week and reset, rejuvenate, write, think. And then the next two days, we just get the mother of all squeezes on completely BS news going into this Telegraph Trump press conference. And yesterday I'm sitting there I'm like I gotta short this thing again. I have to. There's no way a 9 p.m. press conference is to announce something good. You set up a 9 p.m.er to announce, you know, something bad. If it was good, he would have just telegraphed it to the world via Twitter and the market's kind of rising on lower volume. So I was like ah fuck it, I'll short again. And then this morning I the markets didn't open fast enough to cover and like I'm like all right, time to go enjoy Easter holy weekend and so I'm just waiting for the next fat pitch. I I don't I'm I still have stuff on, but it's it's very flat and way degrossed. So I don't know, like I think April's the best chance for a bounce out of any month. I don't think the medium-term picture's pretty at all. Like Trump told us point blank there's a month left to the war, which probably means two or three or more. So it's not going to be great, but I just don't see where the incremental selling comes from. I think everybody knows uh, all the information's out there. So I'm just waiting to watch and I'd love to short another couple percentage points higher on on risk again is is what I'd look for.","offset":450,"duration":261},{"text":"Tyler: I think part of the uh, the problem is the market got overhedged and index actual index realized volatility did not rise commensurately with the implied volatility. So you know, implied volatility is forward looking, realized volatility is backward looking. And like we said, the index actual trading did not really move that much. So you know, the implied volatility rolls off as time goes on, causes that short squeeze effect that we saw today a little bit. So it's more of like the, you know, because of all the systematic trading, these things get so exacerbated in either direction and we saw like the VIX curve invert, that's usually a gr- my favorite sign for like when things are overhedged to the downside. I will say this though, the market was on the precipice of some sort of like if you looked at the dollar breaking out to new highs, if you looked at the yen at 160, like that could have broken out and caused a major credit vol and what what did we see? We saw the Bank of Japan lower their quantitative easing to so so the yen squeezed, right? The vol controllers always know these levels and and I guess it's a good thing that things don't just get completely derailed, your pr- they're proactive now with policy rather than reactive, which is you know, historically way different. So you have to think about that, you know, when you're at these levels. If they don't break through on high volume, that means they're probably going to reverse. So that's you know, I try to point them out on Twitter where I can, you know, when when I feel like this is a breaking point and obviously you know, the dollar rolled over, the yen squeezed and then all the vol metrics kind of rolled off after that. So it was a really bipolar outcome, you could have seen the market kind of cave and you still can, like you gotta watch the dollar and oil here, they're we're still not out of you know, the woods by any means. Um, and then I just wanted to show you this. Go to slide 56. There's a phenomenon, I'm like I'm always watching market structure and obviously retail has become a bigger component of uh, the market now in since retail's been conditioned to buy the dip. You know, we dr- generally have seen and you also have the zero days till expiry options. So this is from Citadel Securities, but you can see over the month of March, Monday has been up on S&P, Nasdaq, and the Russell and then you can see as those options bleed because retail traders are morons and they can't actually understand that like your theta your theta decay happens and then they're waiting for the end of the week where oh, it's just a Hail Mary, right? Like they need the call options, it's usually buying call options, right? And then the call options bleed and then the delta sell the dealer sells the delta once the retail gets stomped out on a Friday. So I think that was largely this month's whole um, that was what we saw continuously for the month of March and now I think a lot of those volatility things have reset, retail's really take gotten hammered here and we'll see what happens uh looking forward based on the geopolitics. But I don't know, a lot of the it feels like you need a little consolidation before you have another roll lower. And then I wanted to show these other two things where it's all - it's not all bearish, it's primarily in tech. So if you go to slide 51, there's a couple interesting things going on. It's like i- there's this guy was named Diego Parrilla and he called about the he called the bubble economy and then the anti-bubble economy and so the bubble economy was all the non-profitable stuff going up, like the tech tech things and the real economy was the inverse, which is like you know, natural resources, metals, etc. Um, but we can actually see you know, global manufacturing PMIs going up here and at the same time you know, central banks are are not easing anymore. So um, and you if that rolls over, that's I think that's really pressuring like the high multiple type sectors. But if you go go to the next slide, this is the uh, Goldman Sachs industrial metals index. Like this is not a bearish chart, right? And there's a lot of things happening in the real economy. And like and then if you go to the next slide, the Dow Transports. Like that's a gr- there's money leaving tech and going into like real things now. Um, and interestingly enough I'll give a shout out to these guys because they're moving to Austin, Texas, but there's a hedge fund down here I think it's called Schottenfeld Capital and their whole premise is to to invest in things that are real. And so this you know, if you get this you know, not only are they nailing the macro trade Austin, Texas, but they're nailing this generational trade from like you know, high multiple software stuff to like real things that you need for the economy. And I think like that that is a secular play here that's really kind of you know, important. Um, and we're seeing that on the ground. And then if you let's see, the last one is tr- if you go to the next one, I did the tran- transportation index versus QQQ and you can kind of see I circled the low, it's a little hard to see here, but this is the ratio between the two and we we're at a low where in 2000 we saw you know, the tech bubble burst and then the Dow Transports took off. So the the bottom green part is the ratio of when when that green line is rising, that means transports are outperforming and when it's falling, that means tech is outperforming. So we're you know, if this keeps up and you see the capital concentration out of tech into like real stuff, I think this you know, I think this line should should mean revert to the upside.","offset":711,"duration":363},{"text":"Felix: That's a sick, I like the way you put that all together with the market structure initially, too, because I think it really it leads into also what Quinn's talking about, just being neutral on the whole punting on on Iran situation here where it just like the easy shorts have happened, there's been so much degrossing, hedging. Um, I mean another one, too, is also this uh JPMorgan collar trade that that expired on Tuesday. That's that's you know, increasingly moving- I mean this is the whole theme, right? Is that there's these these macro ideas, but then the markets are so dislocated from those fundamentals and everybody goes insane because we're actually just being driven by these Opex flows, these CTAs, these uh JPMorgan collars that act as magnets to around expiry. So you know, you can see where actually, hold on, let me get this chart here. Um, this is a sweet chart from our our buddy Andy Constan, just looking at tracking that collar. And you can see right on the expiry on Tuesday, it we kind of expired right at it on the on the long put side and then as soon as that began the roll, markets rallied like crazy on that Tuesday. And you know, everybody's attributing it to it to like a single head like where's the news, what's the news, what did Trump say? And it's just like dude, this is just market structure. Like there's just it's just like every like it's just a game it's just a, you know, it's a Ponzi like you say Tyler. Like it's just all these like quant-driven flows and passive flows. It's just a - I don't know -","offset":1074,"duration":85},{"text":"Tyler: It's just a different management. If you think about it like I've been trying to relate it to if you think about it as if like a a manufacturing um plant for automobiles 50 years ago. You know, it was used to you had to manually put these cars together with hands on a on a conveyor belt. Now they're automated by robots and that's essentially kind of like the stock market's gotten way more efficient, but in that efficiency, you still have these moments where when stuff breaks down, when the robot breaks down, you really have drastic outcomes where that really can screw things up uh, because there's you know, it was my whole point about when you have a heterogeneous market with thousands of different things interacting, you don't really have systemic risk. But when you have a homogeneous market where all these things are have the same incentives and they have the same programmatic quant things, it makes for more sys- systemic risk, which is like that robot breaks down on a conveyor line and then you don't know what to do, right? Like you're then you have to buy all sorts of insurance and everyone rushes to buy the insurance, you know, because the supply chains are messed up. And so I think that's like the new because the world is so centralized and so efficient in a lot of ways, it causes when things start getting rocked it it makes me just want to start like a long vol fund and whenever whenever vol just spikes, oh you just sell it. Like you just sit there and you own insurance when it's cheap and you sell the insurance when it's expensive and you know it's going to happen because of these market structure types of things. So reach out to me if you want to - I'm just kidding.","offset":1159,"duration":98},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, go go talk to Nassim Taleb about that or something.","offset":1257,"duration":3},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, yeah, exactly. But it's happening more frequently because of centralized, I think.","offset":1260,"duration":8},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah. I mean it it's like when people want a reason why, you know, what did Trump say or whatever that the market's up um both days, it's like look at the VIX, it's down huge. So it's just this mechanical rebuying and no news, nothing changed. In fact, Trump's still saying throughout the whole time like, you know, aggressive things and it it just kind of I think you just need to see either the labor market deteriorate or you know, maybe it's boots on the ground, maybe it's whatever to to really frighten people. Like we all know that people I think there's still enough belief that things are not going to get extremely worse from here. I I think the outlook is horrendous. I mean, I think the inflation outlook is is totally being slept on for how for what oil prices are doing. I I think bonds are the next year to drop.","offset":1268,"duration":54},{"text":"Felix: That's the thing oil - oil prices aren't high enough for demand destruction but they're high enough for inflation. And that's actually the double-edged sword of what they're trying to do with manipulating these markets of trying to keep oil suppressed is that you're actually you're keeping it in the corridor of inflation without getting to the corridor of demand destruction. You could make the argument it's actually almost better for it to go higher because then it then you get the demand destruction like central bank's can actually fucking do something, but we're stuck in the corridor of of everybody's frozen and then we just have the inflationary side.","offset":1322,"duration":29},{"text":"Quinn: Well you also get the you also get the supply response if you let the market do its thing and find natural prices. But if you suppress prices and don't let it trade freely, there's no production response. If you look at rig counts, there's no uptick in U.S. rig counts in the Permian nowhere. No one is this whole month. Yes, it takes some time, you know, you you can't just get on the horn and mobilize dozens of rigs, but it's one month in and and there's no supply response in the U.S. and that that's not good. So you have to let -","offset":1351,"duration":36},{"text":"Felix: Yeah. I mean how do you plan a rig count coming online when you're when you're you know the other side of your trade is Scott Bessent in the front months or something?","offset":1387,"duration":7},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah, right. And so then and then you still have people hedging out in the back end. I think back to Andy uh a trade I - so yesterday I loaded up on front-dated oil um because you know part of the thesis that he wasn't going to end the war and it was it's not endable right now. And um, that paid huge and then I that idea floating around a about the huge differential because you know front months at like 110 but then December's only at 70 bucks. And so then like but but the things they're doing, selling front, buying back, doing these like basis trades, like manipulating the market, it you're on the same side as them then if you're buying the long-dated stuff because it like you said, Felix, it basically keeps demand in and helps prices stay higher for longer. So there's no you can't control inflation when the cat's out of the bag like this, even though they're going to try.","offset":1394,"duration":55},{"text":"Tyler: You know what on that point, this this was a really divergent view was I read Pippa Malmgren's last piece and who I want to ask her to come hopefully she can come in the next couple weeks, but she talked about maybe maybe this is all planned because like what does you know high oil prices really in from the Straits of Hormuz really kills China more and what if the biggest news she said that everyone missed was there was a I believe it was like a nuclear fusion breakthrough in late March, or maybe it was late February, where we figured out how to like unlock nuclear fusion in SMRs. So essentially like you could have nuclear power on a small basis. So what hurts China the most when we have this huge generational unlock from you know nuclear fusion and and small modular reactors, where it's like we're moving into the 21st century and the as in the U.S. and if you want to be in, you know, she calls it from molecules to atoms. We're we're moving from molecules to atoms meaning being stuck on an oil type uh petrodollar versus being stuck on, you know, a nuclear new type of of you know backing energy backing to whatever currency's going to win, right? And I think this is a really interesting divergent point, which is like maybe they don't want to rush to get oil prices lower because that we're a relative winner in that game and especially when you have this new technological unlock, it lowers our cost of capital at if your energy goes from you know old school oil to a nuclear solar type thing. I mean, what that makes us win the 21st century game. I don't know if that's it sounds nice.","offset":1449,"duration":111},{"text":"Felix: But I will say yeah, she's good at putting out those divergent mapping ideas. I I don't know about the track record of them, but they're how's the global peace dividend working? Yeah, that one didn't that one didn't - well but you know like these things are all I think from if you zoom out -","offset":1560,"duration":15},{"text":"Quinn: But China's ahead of us in nuclear, they're ahead of us in solar, they're ahead of us in using natural gas for transportation. China's absolutely eating our lunch on every one of these other energy sources.","offset":1575,"duration":12},{"text":"Tyler: That's why I would love to have her on and like kind of -","offset":1587,"duration":3},{"text":"Felix: That would be great, yeah. I would love that, that would be awesome.","offset":1590,"duration":3},{"text":"Tyler: - to to hear the contra, but like from I could see that future if that's really like the age of abundance and we move into this new frontier society, that's great. But you also have to deal with like the credit problems if you're in this giant debt bubble and credit constricts and you can't grow your way out of it, then you know, shit goes south real fast. Um, I think um to earlier point about the inflationary dynamic is yeah, like war is inflationary, plus when it's focused on an oil shock like this. And there's been a couple different news headlines come out today I want to get you guys's take on. The first one is that Amazon is actually putting on a 3.5% fuel surcharge on their fulfillment. So you know, it's like here we are, if if oil was 150, you know, maybe people wouldn't be buying as many things from Amazon, but because it's at 100, instead we're getting a 3.5% surcharge.","offset":1593,"duration":53},{"text":"Tyler: You know what on a small basis, I got a buddy who runs a landscaping company in Massachusetts and he puts he's putting a surcharge on his all the oil he uses for you know cutting people's lawns, doing you know all sorts of yard work. And you know, so this is this is going to factor into inflation in the future, which makes me really suspect of uh yields. And I actually got a good chart on uh let's see, this is from my buddy John at BTIG. He uh he's got one of the a really good note morning note, but if you go to slide 50, he shows you since the beginning of the war, this is how much U.S. treasuries have have risen across the yield curve and you can kind of see um you know this is pretty consistent and now you're getting the the cost spiral on from Amazon. I'm sure it's everybody you know tacking on some of the oil tax.","offset":1646,"duration":63},{"text":"Felix: Yeah.","offset":1709,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: Jordi Vistor said basically these inputs we're going to see flow through you know for the next couple months into CPI. So things can get a little funky on - what what this chart shows too, that's important to keep in mind, is that all the short-dated stuff uh except for the 12 months, the white line, but the two-year, the five-year, um they've risen much more than the 30-year and 10-year. So the curve is flattened through this period, basically people investors saying this is going to keep policy restrictive longer and therefore growth is going to be hurt by it. But it's bear flattened as every all yields have moved up. And the real problem I think is what happens when presumably you know June comes around, first first new Fed meeting, uh you're going to get policy response into the election, oil's still trading elevated, the inflation's kind of being pushed through at that point and then you start to cut and stimulate. You know assuming I'd imagine they also we haven't seen it yet, but probably do some sort of fiscal stimulus into the election. So then you get a bear steepening because so it's just yeah, the bonds are awfully here, awful awful awful.","offset":1710,"duration":78},{"text":"Quinn: [Ad break for Arkham Intelligence]","offset":1788,"duration":48},{"text":"[Ad break for Blockworks Investor Relations]","offset":1836,"duration":49},{"text":"Felix: So this is a I've been considering on my Claude journey. I I made a twos-tens regime map. I just realized the way I screenshotted this it doesn't show the color codes, but yeah -","offset":1885,"duration":11},{"text":"Tyler: I was like what is this?","offset":1896,"duration":1},{"text":"Felix: Pretty, it's very pretty Felix.","offset":1897,"duration":1},{"text":"Felix: Thank you. I'll I'll say it verbally, but the green, so this is a rolling five day and it shows the green is the bear flattener. Um, the pink is bull bull flattener, the rest is yeah, the the pink one which is around what you were saying, Quinn, is the bear steepener. So um, you can see it's come down a lot. Um, and I've been thinking a lot about where does that go from here and if you look at like inflation swaps, contrasting that with what we just looked at with the yields, it's an interesting situation. You can see like the the one-year, two-year is up a lot, the five-year is up modestly since the since the war. Um, 30 years actually continued the trend down. So I don't know, kind of in the same camp where I see a lot of folks trying to bid the long end on this idea of like a recession play, but I think you're in this again in this weird corridor where you need things to get worse for that to happen. Um, so you're sort of in the doldrums.","offset":1898,"duration":54},{"text":"Quinn: But not worse enough where it brings down receipts and it's this double-edged sword of all assets up or all down because bonds if you plot them next to stock the indices, they've been trading like the indices. So -","offset":1952,"duration":14},{"text":"Tyler: Gundlach had a interesting call. He was on this podcast with I think her name's Julia LaRoche. He said this is the first time we've seen you know in these crisis scenarios bond yields have risen and there's no way out. Like they are so screwed here and he's he's basically saying they're going to have to do something crazy and he was even calling for everyone who has treasuries, all of a sudden oh your your coupon is cut by say like 50%. Imagine if you woke up overnight, it was just this giant like overnight policy where they just said oh by the way, your treasuries are down by 50% and the dollar rolls out of bed, like gold doubles. Like you could have there's a it's essentially a debt jubilee, right? Where they have to get the rates down on in debt and treasury debt because it's getting egregious and if you have a recession it's going to get more egregious. So you have to get you're going we're going to get into wacky wacky policy mode here.","offset":1966,"duration":62},{"text":"Felix: Gundlach - Gundlach, those words came out of his mouth, he said what if what if they cut coupons?","offset":2028,"duration":7},{"text":"Felix: Yes, he did, but he -","offset":2035,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: I've heard him say this before about um he does think this is like a medium or like a a something that's on the cards at some point down the line.","offset":2036,"duration":8},{"text":"Quinn: And he's legitimate. He's he's the Bond King, or one of them.","offset":2044,"duration":5},{"text":"Tyler: And you know Lyn Alden's been saying the same thing. She had a great interview with uh was it Peter McCormack, too, and I I I'm seeing the same thing, but here's a good chart for that. Go to 62. So this is uh this is gold. You can see gold, there's secular stuff going on that's probably going to work. So gold producer cash flow is the dark blue line, that's on the left, so you can see their like margins are huge. But then if you look to the the relative performance of gold equities versus gold bullion, we're at even though you know margins are more than double what they were at in 2020, the the ratio is still the same. So like if you have some sort of crazy policy like a yield curve control or like a tax on boomers vi- via like you know they won't even know if you just cut their divi- you know cut their you know treasuries by all a percentage point, oh by the way your coupon's 3% instead of 2%. Sorry, the dollar would roll over and I mean god you're looking at some crazy stuff happening and I just don't you know that's why I think you got to look at what displays relative strength in sell-offs and that's where you want to be going forward.","offset":2049,"duration":78},{"text":"Felix: Well you know what's been holding up okay is Bitcoin. I feel like we we've stopped talking about it for the last while, I've seen we've gotten a little bit of shit for that from some people. But it's just been chopping around, but it hasn't been breaking down lower either. And you know it's not getting the big sexy gains either, but -","offset":2127,"duration":15},{"text":"Tyler: It makes me nervous, which means it's either a low or there's one last big -","offset":2142,"duration":4},{"text":"Felix: That's that's always what's so hard, right? Because it was the thing that sold off first even before this whole thing, you know, January and all of that. Um, so either it's just technical support, though, that's what makes me nervous is like if you look at gold's got great support, defended it you know big. But Bitcoin has - I agree - relatively thin. But any time we start talking about haircuts on sovereign debt, I'm like hm, you know, you start you have to at least put it into the conversation. I don't know where it sits with it, but -","offset":2146,"duration":26},{"text":"Tyler: You know what people are figuring out, though, is go to this last slide, slide 63. I think they're figuring out that you can't actually save money in fixed income anymore because look at stocks as a percentage of household financial assets and like in a world where the policy is getting wonky like Gundlach and Lyn Alden everyone kind of sees, I don't know where you put your money besides stocks. And maybe that's the phenomenon of why things mean revert higher anyway is because it's just this is the great rotation out of debt.","offset":2172,"duration":37},{"text":"Felix: You know what's I have another one here just to bounce off of that. But you know what's so insane is that like the entire modern financial system was based on this little phase here where stocks and bonds are negatively correlated and like we completely ignored history where it's like mostly positively correlated and then we just built up every portfolio on this idea of like a negative correlation between stocks and bonds and now we're just we're not going to this new weird regime, we're going back to normal.","offset":2209,"duration":31},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, yeah, it's a really good point. It's a really good point.","offset":2240,"duration":1},{"text":"Quinn: I mean, where people are putting their money, Tyler, is when I mean the labor market's horrendous, savings rate is falling, stock market is at all-time highs. So people need to spend and they're putting the their money from financial assets and financial market that market capitalization, which is at the most extreme level it's ever been in history relative to real things, they're they're taking the money and putting it in in things they have to buy to live and enjoy life and so that's what makes these periods so tough because like post-COVID -","offset":2241,"duration":37},{"text":"Felix: Or hedge their employment with the AI supply chain. That's what I'm doing.","offset":2278,"duration":6},{"text":"Quinn: That's what makes these periods so tough to for investors because it's everything that's it's very difficult to to maneuver and the things that work over the periods are are like the least sexy, the places no one's ever no one's been and you know think are very just left for dead and but look at what's worked over the last it's like all the most boring businesses, people said oil is never going above $60 a barrel again. Like I'm I'm more in the camp of Michael Howell had a a nice piece. I'm in the I'm a like mean reversion guy uh over over long periods of time. Like if history's given you a hundred years of trading look back in in the gold-oil ratio. Like I'm gonna bet that it's gonna adhere to the to that decades-long trend line and so what Michael Howell kind of was arguing for in the piece, not not that it's going to happen today or tomorrow, but that gold implies the gold-oil ratio implies $250 oil sometime in the next you know multiple years. And and so if you think about it like from the Bitcoin perspective, okay yes um debasement, monetization of debt, right. Bitcoin's price at some point will stop going down in nominal terms because the the denominator's getting debased. So - but that doesn't necessarily mean that in real terms it will be a good investment because you need peace, you need um animal spirits, you need you know fun times and you'll get countertrend bounces here. But over the next if you look out over the next year, like do you envision us immediately anytime soon going back to a place where you know everyone just relies on globalization and believes shipping lanes are open and you know my neighbor's gonna give me that commodity that scarce one when I need it and I trust the the U.S. treasury to hold my funds in treasury? No, none of this stuff. So when you think about this is wartime allocation of capital. And and this isn't just about the Iran situation. This is about what's been building for three years, four years, five years and it just favors scarce resources you can't print. And right now leading up to this, it was gold and metals, now it's oil and energy. You know soon it might be food, it might go back to metals, but these are things you need. And if everybody's piled in the gold, that's why it's not working, it's trading like equities because at some point these countries gotta spend their gold, they bought gold as a fiat hedge, as a store of value. And at some point if they aren't getting oil, you know UK just announced some stimulus measures for their citizens, some people I know there said there's lines at every gas station and four of the five are out of like gasoline. Like wow these are there's serious issues and people are going to throw the kitchen sink at it.","offset":2284,"duration":188},{"text":"Tyler: Check this, go to slide 57, JPMorgan had their uh default monitor this week, their note and this is the combined high-yield loan distressed universe, it's hit it's highest level since June of 2023. You know if they can't figure out how to get policy rates lower, these things have a tendency to spiral and we saw a little bit of loosening from the credit spreads this week, that keeps going you could see a major squeeze in risk assets, but this definitely these things are hard to unwind and we've seen obviously what so there was a great tweet it said something like if Iran never happened all we'd be talking about is like Blue Owl distressed debt and private equity problems because like that's really a huge issue that's not going away anytime soon and can really spiral. But and that'll affect like all sorts of asset classes eventually, but it could just be a slow default, it's really I don't know it's hard to decipher, but I do know that's a real big issue underlying this all.","offset":2472,"duration":69},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah I I think one of the things I actually wrote about this week I haven't put it out yet, but um I was just kind of like blank sheet of paper, it's like if I look into the into the future what what are the things I see most clearly? And one of them is sustained higher for longer commodity prices. Like yeah okay, we get a resolution oil drops 20 bucks, I'm not talking about that, but we're not going back to 60. Maybe it goes to 80, you know that's probably a great dip to buy um and the whole complex is now a scarce thing that you have to put a premium on. So I see higher for longer there. Uh and the other thing I see is kind of tangential is like conflict not going away and in one of the best ways to play that in addition to I mentioned the long-dated oil futures contracts is credit problems because the consumer's getting hit both two ways, one um it's a it's a demand destruction because higher prices, inflation, they can't travel, the things more expensive, it costs them more money to get to work. So higher gas energy food prices really affects consumers, but then two the negative reflexive wealth effect as as already going into this savings rate was falling, so people were dipping into their wealth via assets and savings and that's falling reflexively via lower asset prices. So now their their kitty to to spend from is also lower. So what does that look like in the future? Like that looks like cutting back your summer vacation plans, that looks like you know kids aren't getting you know the extra thing. And so that's just weaker and that's credit credit problems. At the end of the day, like I I think financials like I don't really see a good case to be made for financials here um and so I in small caps and all these sort of cyclical uh we were saying a couple weeks ago before the war, we said the cyclical reacceleration, yes there's some bright spots, green shoots, but without Fed accommodation and and follow through it's it's dicey and now it's -","offset":2541,"duration":121},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, yeah, we get the emerging little sprinkles of it and then now it's totally smoked. You know, like we went from quite a few cuts priced to almost zero cuts priced, you know. You have a doubling of oil price you just can't you just can't get that sort of a reacceleration when it's like just barely alive. Um, it's yeah, it's it's done.","offset":2662,"duration":20},{"text":"Tyler: Here's a good snippet, I have to fly home to Jersey uh just from Jersey to Austin and we were booking flights for my family, you guys this is little microcosm, guess guess give me a guess on how many for five people how much the flights were all together round trip?","offset":2682,"duration":20},{"text":"Felix: Three grand.","offset":2702,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: 3,500 bucks. Bro, stick for lower for one round trip flight and you're just like eventually that's gotta cause demand destruction, you know.","offset":2703,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Totally. I guess yeah, I mean to earlier point, like the 150-dollar barrel situation, that's like the very quick demand destruction but there is these more long-tailed ones. Um, you know, you're starting to see different airlines start to cancel these flights uh you know these flight routes that just aren't as profitable now at at this sort of level. And you know what I realized too is over the past few years, airlines have stopped hedging their jet fuel. Have you guys heard about this? Like for whatever for whatever reason the trend these days in the airline industry's to not hedge your jet fuel, so none of them are hedged going into this.","offset":2715,"duration":31},{"text":"Tyler: Scary. Yeah, there's you know what else you know what else I've been thinking about too is like so you have the price insensitive buyer and then you have like stuff like Hyperliquid that you can take out 40x leverage on, you know, oil contracts. It's like how how much more volatile we're going to be in certain asset classes. Like this is all the market structure stuff, but -","offset":2746,"duration":25},{"text":"Quinn: I mean it's just classic it's how cycles work because they probably got berated for last few years like why are you hedging oil, it only goes down, aren't you don't you know this, you're stupid and then right when they it's just classic. Like that it's just how cycles always work.","offset":2771,"duration":16},{"text":"Felix: Yeah. You hedge after the crisis and then right before the crisis you're you're like wait why am I paying all this carry so then you yeah.","offset":2787,"duration":9},{"text":"Tyler: You try to get the max P multiple off your you know by cutting little corners and then it's a sharp reversal. But this is to to that point, this is very typical late cycle. You have the dollar rallying, the oil rallying, credit spreads widening. Like the these things they take a while to play out before they really hit earnings. Uh the one thing that's really confusing me on check this out, this is uh last chart I promise and then I'll stop. But this is the GPU rentals, slide 45. Like we're clearly in some sort of secular growth in AI. Like there's no doubt about it. Will the credit markets completely punish these these stocks before they can build out the infrastructure? Possibly. But look at the demand for this stuff. I mean it's your GPUs are rentals are rising and I mean from from the OpenAI raises $100 billion. Like that's that's kind of nuts. Like that money's got to go somewhere and have a multiplier effect to it. So -","offset":2796,"duration":65},{"text":"Felix: And Anthropic, yeah. I continue to be in the camp that like the demand for compute is way higher than we expect because like if you look at actually what's going on right now, like ever since the AI agent wave that started a few months ago, like dude the I'm getting smoked on my Claude usage. I have a max plan and like all this stuff and suddenly it's like I do I try to do a few things and I'm and and my I get smoked on my usage. So like there's I imagine everybody like this right now is that they're throttling the usage because suddenly everybody's trying to actually do things with it. Um and so it's limiting the amount of innovation that you can do, but if you increase the compute, new innovation, new ideas. So I don't know, I I don't want to completely fade it.","offset":2861,"duration":42},{"text":"Tyler: I don't either. I think I think that's something that you have to really it's going to be volatile in the macro, but like underneath fundamentals are pretty damn good.","offset":2903,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, I guess I guess the big question is who's who's the one underwriting that compute, these data centers, right? And and what are the cost inputs? Because you know it's stuff like, you know, semis which is related to helium, which is related to the Middle East where there's these helium- like there's that stuff, there's the fact that like the financing deals are coming from the big dogs in Dubai and now nobody's actually living in Dubai, so suddenly tax revenues are down, so suddenly you can't finance- like it just it's a cascade, right? And that's why -","offset":2915,"duration":28},{"text":"Tyler: Well I was going to say, that's why I'm watching the macro so hard here and these levels and in particular FX. If you start to see funky FX vol and you get that repatriation, it could p- put the nail in the coffin on a lot of stuff. But given the genesis plan, this is the Manhattan Project, right? They ha- they can't derail the capital markets and so I bet Trump would just if it got to that level where the credit markets started shutting off, he would probably say we're out of we're out of Iran, we're going back and like you know we're going to unleash all of our reserves and by the way, no one has to pay taxes and by the way you know like that's the vol controller thing that you it's really hard to play, but secularly you know you have to pick. I think there's there's a couple themes that that work and it's just going to be really hard through the vol. You know like the gold gold is is I feel like it's secular here, I feel like AI's probably secular, I feel like space is probably secular, but you're going to have these vicious drawdowns.","offset":2943,"duration":69},{"text":"Quinn: That that's what we're getting into a difficult period though because it's not guaranteed that those mechanisms work when inflation is spiraling and you try price controls that make production worse and then stimulate like because if Trump announces stimu- stimulus tomorrow and forces the Fed down 75 basis points and all these things, I'm not buying semiconductors, I'm buying I'm buying Main Street stuff, I'm buying inflation protection, I'm buying I'm selling bonds, I'm buying I'm buying real real things that everyone can go get their hands on. I'm not I'm selling semis. So that's why I just it's such a delicate back against the wall balance right now. And I'm not saying -","offset":3012,"duration":48},{"text":"Felix: Yeah.","offset":3060,"duration":1},{"text":"Quinn: - actually right now I have I went into the weekend with zero semiconductor shorts on, I I covered my Nvidia, so I'm you know that's not even just I actually think there's a little bit of a with how beaten down Mag 7 and you know the megacaps have become, I think people might actually seek them out as safe havens over over the next few weeks if we get a bounce and you know flight to quality and safety type of thing. So I don't love that that play right here, but -","offset":3061,"duration":29},{"text":"Tyler: I do think it sets up because really what you do, right, Tyler, if you if we're go- if credit spreads are blowing out, if um the labor market's weakening and they step in to support AI in a time where Main Street's already just been getting the hammer for two two years straight, you're just guaranteeing sowing the seeds with a bow on top the demise -","offset":3090,"duration":25},{"text":"Tyler: French Revolution.","offset":3115,"duration":1},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, I mean the Main Street hates AI, you know. They're they're protesting data centers in their towns and losing the yeah.","offset":3116,"duration":7},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah. So if which I'm not this is not I actually think you're probably right that they will do everything to to support but the second they do that and you play that maybe you play that bounce or if you don't you just wait for the short again, it will sow the seeds politically and societally for that demise to be even worse because it it will be just an absolute slap in the face times a million if unemployment's you know shooting up to five.","offset":3123,"duration":30},{"text":"Tyler: Our biggest problem with that is you have a guy in office that will he's like the lowest ratings of any president in history I think it just came out today. And if you want to message that this is really important from a geopolitical standpoint to win in AI, you have to have a high trust rating and you have to be able to like say, hey we're going to take a pain as a team. You know we're going to do this together and then this is a national priority as a labor and we're going to make sure we listen to the labor pool and and say, hey we're watching out for you and like when things get bad enough we're going to pass policies that take care of you in this transition. You have to have this messaging way you got to be way out ahead of it and and this is part of the situational awareness piece is like you're going to have people fall through the cracks as this stuff is so productive. But you need to b- you need to be out there in policy and already formulating ideas and messaging it. And he's he's behind on Iran messaging like he could have messaged this way better. And and it's because he's like a he's like a TV star or like a reality TV star that likes drama rather than like actually keeping the social fabric together. And so I don't know he's going your propensity my point is your propensity for these things to break with Trump is way higher even though he might have the national like geopolitical priority correct. He doesn't have the capability of actually doing that. And it's based off the you know his polls are showing that like he's kind of just a narcissistic loser in that sense and like maybe it works, you know, maybe it works and he's in 10 years we think he's the greatest thing ever even though you know right now we I like to fade the extremes, right? And everyone hates him so much right now, maybe maybe there's some genius to it. But I don't know, I the Epstein stuff really the fucking lost me. Excuse my Fr- and like now he you know he throws Pam Bondi out to dry the whole thing is -","offset":3153,"duration":129},{"text":"Felix: That's that's because we lost the the key level at 50,000 on the Dow so she had to go.","offset":3282,"duration":6},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, yeah, you know what that might be a great point. In hindsight like watching that and be like that was the top of the market. That was the absolute top. Imagine.","offset":3288,"duration":10},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, yeah, oh man. And now that she's fired, it's like yeah.","offset":3298,"duration":3},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah. The the thing is that you know put the politics aside like emotions and I don't like him and I like her better and whatever, at the end of the day, the the incentives here point to inflation. And inflation is really bad for risk assets because it sends bond yields higher and equity multiples lower and nobody wins. And so whether or not like what we think he's doing is good or dumb or bad or crazy, like that's that's kind of the direction we're headed. Like they're going to stimulate, they're going to figure out ways to try and support markets and support the economy and it's just like the path is sort of paved. It's just kind of like or the destination is is kind of paved, it's sort of the path now. And so he's like, well we might as well make the path bumpy so we can insider trade it. But like yeah, it's there's not a lot they can do um and I think that's that's why as an investor you should be more cautious going into into the midterms because you have this huge vol event sitting out on the horizon and the stakes are you know fever pitch record stakes like he's going to get impeached if he loses, yada yada yada and the the you know the desperation is rising with it. And and so you're just not saying go buy volatility here because it's super elevated, but that's why volatility is so high is because it's correlated, it's people have no idea, people are expecting wilder and wilder things. Uh you know we thought Venezuela was still this year, that we thought that was crazy and that was literally still this year and then we said it's going to get crazier and then Iran happened. And it's going to still get crazier. And so cash is a big position and you know sometimes it's just it's just better to to know that these are this is what's going on and and not try and you know get too cute about it because it's just frankly not going to be good for most most people in the markets. Unless you have inside information and you're out you're out of the administration. But Hedgesat tried it and he he he tried to front run some defense spending and then still got murked. So that just shows how hard it is to be in the markets.","offset":3301,"duration":150},{"text":"Tyler: You know I gotta I gotta say this is just like Hedgesat had this tweet that he said it's like into the Stone Ages or something. And I just I never like I think of maybe it's me getting older and being more like I never root for death. And it's such a weird you know -","offset":3451,"duration":22},{"text":"Felix: Dude they make Twitter video montages of them like killing people. Are you kidding me?","offset":3473,"duration":4},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah it's it's really bizarre. And I just I'm not like you know I don't get it. And it desperate it desperation causes you know irrational thinking.","offset":3477,"duration":11},{"text":"Quinn: It feels it feels like beta male to me where I'm like you know the alpha male sits there and he's quiet and he's you know lets his confidence speak for himself. It's just so beta and it's sorry.","offset":3488,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, we just need to get somebody under 30 years old on here to explain us if this is cool or not because I don't see it anyway.","offset":3500,"duration":7},{"text":"Quinn: It's it's it's it's what anyone would do in these this position is what it is. It's just when your back's against the wall, when you not when you don't have the winning cards, you lost all your leverage, you lost approval, you lost confidence in yourself, you know, it's what humans do in these situations. I I think it's a ugly side of humans for sure.","offset":3507,"duration":23},{"text":"Tyler: I I'm open to the contra and proven wrong in hindsight, like honestly like I try to keep you as an investor you can't be too dogmatic about these things. If there is a bigger geopolitical 4D chess thing going on right now with Saudi Arabia and all these other countries that we don't know about, totally in hindsight that'll I can admit that, but right now it's not looking good. And and lastly before we end, how come I didn't get the slick back hair black shirt note? Like what is this is this like Johnny Depp and you know Cusack getting together like you got you even got the little swirl coming down, it's great.","offset":3530,"duration":38},{"text":"Felix: Look at this thing, I know dude.","offset":3568,"duration":2},{"text":"Quinn: Next week we'll plan something and loop you in this time.","offset":3570,"duration":3},{"text":"Felix: And you guys on my side I gotta start tanning because like you guys down in the South are just looking good. I'm up here in Canada looking pretty rough.","offset":3573,"duration":8},{"text":"Tyler: You're pasty, bro. I will say you guys are definitely, you know, I know how you you you're in serious relationships is that you guys have plants. No single male has a plant. It's like -","offset":3581,"duration":14},{"text":"Quinn: I actually went to this nursery last weekend to to accumulate more plants.","offset":3595,"duration":4},{"text":"Tyler: Yeah, every every bachelor just got like it's like the most stone-cold room, nothing on the walls, it's like just a TV and a seat.","offset":3599,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Yeah, TV, a campy chair and then like your your computer.","offset":3611,"duration":5},{"text":"Tyler: Dude yeah all grown up man. Just trying to be like you. Yeah now you got art and you got like plants and stuff, it's great. Look at you guys.","offset":3616,"duration":8},{"text":"Felix: We're trying, we're trying out here. Appreciate it.","offset":3624,"duration":3},{"text":"Quinn: Doing our best.","offset":3627,"duration":1},{"text":"Felix: We missed you, Tyler, glad you're back.","offset":3628,"duration":1},{"text":"Tyler: All right bro. I can't wait to roast you guys when you have kids because you're going to come in and be like, I didn't sleep, I got I didn't sleep with take two hours of sleep, how do you do this?","offset":3629,"duration":12},{"text":"Felix: Yeah the show's going to fall apart, you're just going to be there laughing at us and be like see!","offset":3641,"duration":3},{"text":"Tyler: I'll have to carry it. All right good, it's good to be back, that was awesome.","offset":3644,"duration":5},{"text":"Felix: All right fellas. Have a good weekend, Happy Easter everybody.","offset":3649,"duration":3},{"text":"Quinn: Yeah, Happy long weekend everybody, yeah. Happy Easter.","offset":3652,"duration":3},{"text":"[outro music plays]","offset":3655,"duration":15}],"logs":[{"elapsed":"0.0","message":"Downloading audio from YouTube...","detail":null},{"elapsed":"0.0","message":"Trying download with browser cookies (ad-free)...","detail":null},{"elapsed":"4.1","message":"⚠ Cookie download failed: WARNING: [youtube] [jsc] Error solving n challenge request using \"deno\" provider: Error running deno process (returncode: 1): \u001b[0m\u001b[1m\u001b[31merror\u001b[0m: Uncaught (in promise) TypeError: Cannot read prope","detail":null},{"elapsed":"4.1","message":"Retrying without cookies...","detail":null},{"elapsed":"36.1","message":"⚠ Downloaded without cookies — audio may contain ads","detail":null},{"elapsed":"36.1","message":"Audio downloaded (31.6 MB) in 36.1s","detail":"File size: 31.6 MB"},{"elapsed":"36.1","message":"Video title: Market Structure is Distorting Reality as Inflation Builds | Weekly Roundup","detail":null},{"elapsed":"36.1","message":"Audio duration: 1:01:05 (61.1 min)","detail":null},{"elapsed":"36.1","message":"Uploading audio to Gemini File API...","detail":null},{"elapsed":"40.3","message":"Audio uploaded in 4.2s","detail":"File ref: files/bfg7vby51k7z"},{"elapsed":"40.3","message":"Audio processed in 0.0s. Transcribing with gemini-3-flash-preview...","detail":null},{"elapsed":"124.2","message":"Transcription complete in 88.1s","detail":"58705 chars received"},{"elapsed":"124.3","message":"Transcription tokens: 91,857 in / 14,751 out — cost: $0.0902","detail":null},{"elapsed":"124.3","message":"Parsed 124 transcript segments","detail":null},{"elapsed":"124.3","message":"Transcript coverage: 1:00:55 of 1:01:05 (100%) — OK","detail":null},{"elapsed":"124.3","message":"Total transcription time: 88.2s — 124 segments","detail":null},{"elapsed":"124.3","message":"Analyzing topics across 124 segments with gemini-3.1-pro-preview...","detail":null},{"elapsed":"152.9","message":"Topic analysis complete in 28.6s — found 14 topics","detail":null},{"elapsed":"152.9","message":"Analysis tokens: 15,517 in / 1,122 out / 2,376 thinking — cost: $0.0730","detail":null},{"elapsed":"152.9","message":"Pipeline finished in 152.9s — total cost: $0.1632 (125,623 tokens)","detail":null}]}