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Initial commit: Ten31 Signal Engine (ingest, scoring brain, corpus seeds)

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2026-06-15 09:24:29 -05:00
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seeds/battery_docs.manifest.yaml
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# Battery corpus documents to fetch (verified FREE+FETCHABLE, manifest workflow w7559rp1x).
# Loaded by: signal_engine ingest-doc-manifest --file seeds/battery_docs.manifest.yaml
# Each → documents row (kind=filing) + extract job. method auto-detects html/pdf; override where needed.
docs:
# ===== SUPPLY: in-window deployed-dollar disclosures (the only true supply measures) =====
- {source: bat-galaxy, method: html, date: "2024-01-01", title: "Galaxy Research — The State of Crypto Lending", url: "https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/the-state-of-crypto-lending"}
- {source: bat-galaxy, method: pdf, date: "2024-01-01", title: "Galaxy Research — State of Crypto Lending (full PDF)", url: "https://assets.ctfassets.net/h62aj7eo1csj/4vkA9567QmK4pyYoPBtrQa/fb039fd97d657d8151dcf4d3e969e481/The_State_of_Crypto_Lending_-_Galaxy_Research.pdf"}
- {source: co-coin, method: html, date: "2024-02-15", title: "Coinbase Q4'23 Shareholder Letter ($399M loans / $546M credit)", url: "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978824000019/shareholderletterq42023.htm"}
- {source: bat-galaxy, method: html, date: "2024-11-08", title: "Galaxy Q3'24 results (avg loan book $863M)", url: "https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/galaxy-announces-third-quarter-2024-financial-results-837407031.html"}
- {source: bat-9fin, method: html, date: "2024-01-01", title: "9fin — Bitcoin-backed direct lending brings crypto to private credit", url: "https://www.9fin.com/insights/bitcoin--backed-direct-lending-brings-crypto-to-private"}
- {source: bat-coinspeaker, method: html, date: "2023-09-01", title: "Coinbase to Launch Crypto Lending for Institutions (>$57M, Reg D)", url: "https://www.coinspeaker.com/coinbase-crypto-lending-institutional/"}
# ===== SUPPLY: announced-not-funded boundary anchors (the binding negative) =====
- {source: bat-cantor, method: html, date: "2024-07-27", title: "Cantor Fitzgerald to Launch Bitcoin Financing Business ($2B ANNOUNCED)", url: "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cantor-fitzgerald-to-launch-bitcoin-financing-business-302208093.html"}
- {source: bat-falconx, method: html, date: "2025-05-27", title: "FalconX Closes First Bitcoin-Backed Financing from Cantor (FUNDED, out-of-window)", url: "https://www.falconx.io/newsroom/falconx-closes-first-bitcoin-backed-financing-from-cantor"}
- {source: bat-maple, method: html, date: "2025-05-27", title: "Maple Closes First Cantor Tranche (FUNDED, out-of-window)", url: "https://maple.finance/insights/maple-cantor"}
- {source: bat-coindesk, method: html, date: "2025-05-27", title: "CoinDesk — Cantor Debuts Bitcoin Lending, First Tranches to FalconX/Maple", url: "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/05/27/wall-street-giant-cantor-debuts-bitcoin-lending-business-with-first-tranches-to-falconx-maple"}
- {source: bat-twoprime, method: html, date: "2023-11-08", title: "Two Prime sees $2B demand for bitcoin-backed loans (zero deployed disclosed)", url: "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/08/investment-advisor-two-prime-sees-2b-in-demand-for-bitcoin-backed-loans"}
- {source: bat-battery, method: html, date: "2024-11-25", title: "Newmarket Launches Battery Finance (1 funded deal; no pooled committed capital)", url: "https://www.newswire.com/news/newmarket-launches-battery-finance-a-pioneering-asset-management-and-22469517"}
- {source: bat-bitcoinmag, method: html, date: "2024-11-25", title: "Bitcoin Magazine — Newmarket Launches Battery Finance (interview)", url: "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/newmarket-capital-launches-battery-finance-bitcoin-collateralized-loan-strategy-"}
# ===== DEMAND: originator disclosures =====
- {source: bat-unchained, method: html, date: "2024-01-01", title: "Unchained — Announcing Institutional Lending (>$500M cumulative)", url: "https://www.unchained.com/blog/announcing-institutional-lending"}
- {source: bat-ledn, method: html, date: "2023-12-31", title: "Ledn Open Book — Dec 2023", url: "https://www.ledn.io/post/lednopenbook-dec23"}
# ===== MARKET DATA (independent) =====
- {source: bat-asr, method: html, date: "2022-04-01", title: "Asset Securitization Report — Milo crypto-mortgage (BTC collateral)", url: "https://asreport.americanbanker.com/news/crypto-mortgage-product-allows-borrowers-to-post-bitcoin-as-collateral"}
# ===== POLICY CONTEXT (axis=context — weight 0 into supply) =====
- {source: bat-sec, method: html, date: "2022-04-11", title: "SEC SAB-121 (govinfo full text)", url: "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2022-04-11/html/2022-07196.htm"}
- {source: bat-fed, method: html, date: "2022-08-16", title: "Fed SR 22-6 / CA 22-6 — crypto-asset activities (press release)", url: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20220816a.htm"}
- {source: bat-fed, method: pdf, date: "2022-08-16", title: "Fed SR 22-6 — letter PDF (loans collateralized by crypto-assets)", url: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/bcreg20250424a3.pdf"}
- {source: bat-fed, method: pdf, date: "2023-08-08", title: "Fed SR 23-7 — Novel Activities Supervision Program (PDF)", url: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/bcreg20250815a1.pdf"}
- {source: bat-fdic, method: html, date: "2022-04-07", title: "FDIC FIL-16-2022 — crypto prior-notification", url: "https://www.fdic.gov/news/inactive-financial-institution-letters/2022/fil22016.html"}
- {source: bat-occ, method: pdf, date: "2021-11-23", title: "OCC Interpretive Letter 1179 — supervisory non-objection gate", url: "https://www.occ.gov/topics/charters-and-licensing/interpretations-and-decisions/2021/int1179.pdf"}
- {source: bat-occ, method: pdf, date: "2020-07-22", title: "OCC Interpretive Letter 1170 — national-bank crypto custody", url: "https://www.occ.gov/topics/charters-and-licensing/interpretations-and-decisions/2020/int1170.pdf"}
# ===== Terminal-bracket policy (2025, out-of-window CONTEXT: the unblock that produced no capital) =====
- {source: bat-sec, method: html, date: "2025-01-23", title: "SEC SAB-122 (rescission of SAB-121)", url: "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/30/2025-01864/staff-accounting-bulletin-no-122"}
seeds/conviction_log.adversarial.seed.yaml
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# ADVERSARIAL failed-conviction cases (DESIGN_v2 §1.4) — the NEGATIVES the eval was missing.
# Both are convictions Ten31 ACTUALLY held where the FALSIFIABLE THESIS mis-fired (on mechanism /
# timing) even though Ten31 remains bullish on the companies. That is the most honest kind of negative
# — and the kind we are most tempted to grade leniently, which is why the resolution criteria are
# pre-registered (seeds/resolution.*.yaml) before any outcome-labeling. Let the criteria be ugly.
convictions:
- id: STRIKE2022
seam: debasement_bitcoin
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: lt2 # TEST parameterization (so the scorer can fire) — NOT Strike's real exposure (~40% of book)
exposure_note: "test param; real Strike exposure is HIGH (largest position). The 2022 PAYMENTS thesis is the falsifiable negative."
thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin + the Lightning network becomes a retail payments network that materially disrupts the card rails (Visa/Mastercard/Amex); Lightning retail acceptance and merchant-payment volume scale."
team_conviction_note: "Ten31 led Strike's Series B (2022) on this thesis; STILL high conviction in Strike the company. But the 2022 payments-network thesis FAILED — Strike succeeded by becoming a bitcoin financial-services platform (exchange + BTC-collateralized lending), which the memo barely names. The failed thesis was NARRATIVE-driven (the whole bitcoin-podcast cluster told 'Lightning eats retail payments' loudly in 2022) — the exact single-cluster, reflexive, talk-our-own-book corroboration the relaxed gate is most likely to wave through."
disconfirming_signal: "Retail Lightning payments fail to materialize at scale; card-network volumes show no erosion; Strike's growth comes from exchange/lending not merchant payments."
- id: BATTERY2022
seam: debasement_bitcoin
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: lt2
exposure_note: "Battery Finance position"
thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin-as-collateral credit goes mainstream: institutional/incumbent capital funds bitcoin-collateralized lending at scale within 24-36 months; >=1 major traditional institution enters. (= conviction D1 + R3.)"
team_conviction_note: "Ten31 invested in Battery Finance (2022); STILL high conviction. The thesis was RIGHT on the demand side (borrower appetite for BTC-collateralized credit) and EARLY/wrong on the SUPPLY side (Battery could not raise institutional lending capital at scale). A direct, datable instance of D1/R3 not arriving on schedule — the instructive two-sided test (demand rising, supply flat)."
disconfirming_signal: "Institutional/bank capital for BTC-collateralized credit stays scarce; no major incumbent entry; the supply side stalls while demand rises."
seeds/conviction_log.backtest-2023.seed.yaml
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# Backtest seed — handoff §7.1 (the HEADLINE pilot validation, run BEFORE the forward pilot).
#
# Seed ONLY the ~2023 Kirkwood conviction, run the pipeline over a period-correct ~2023 corpus, and
# check whether the under-acted-conviction signal surfaces the derivative:
# "size up the power-infrastructure picks-and-shovels of the buildout"
# (grid interconnect, transformers, substations, cooling, gas turbines, nuclear, uranium, public
# picks-and-shovels). A clear yes/no on that derivative is the strongest validation the system
# does the job Ten31 actually needs (§1.1, §7.1).
#
# CRITICAL (§6.6 look-ahead guard): consensus, embeddings, and corroboration must be computed
# AS-OF the log date — never with knowledge that the theme was real in absolute terms.
convictions:
- id: K2023
seam: energy_compute
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: lt2 # the historical reality: seed conviction held, derivatives under-acted
exposure_note: "Seed conviction held in ~2023; derivative branches NOT systematically sized into — the failure §1.1 exists to prevent."
thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin mining and AI are both 'distributed compute'; interruptible/flexible load is the differentiator; the world will need to ~1000x rack space over the decade, so power becomes the binding constraint."
team_conviction_note: "Jonathan Kirkwood, publicly articulated ~2023. Root call correct and early; the MISS was the derivative tree, not the prediction."
disconfirming_signal: "Compute demand growth stalls; power clears without becoming the binding constraint."
seeds/conviction_log.seed.yaml
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# Conviction log seed — handoff §3.1. HUMAN-OWNED: Grant edits this file; `seed-convictions` upserts it.
#
# Structural rule (§3.1): `thematic_proposition` is the TRACKABLE half the corpus can corroborate and
# that gets fanned out and scored. `team_conviction_note` is context ONLY — the engine must never
# present theme corroboration as validation of the team bet beneath it.
#
# `current_exposure` is a coarse NAV band (operator decision): none | lt2 | 2to10 | gt10 | unset.
# The v1 levels below are the §3.1 draft; exposure is left `unset` with the original prose preserved in
# `exposure_note` — Grant to FINALIZE the NAV bands (§12 governance item).
convictions:
# ---------- ROOT (the forcing function) ----------
- id: R1
seam: root
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "pervasive"
thematic_proposition: "Sovereign debt keeps being monetized not repaid; fiat debasement persists; bitcoin is adopted as the neutral non-debasable reserve capital migrates to."
disconfirming_signal: "Durable fiscal surpluses + falling debt/GDP + no reserve diversification."
- id: R2
seam: root
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "thesis-wide"
thematic_proposition: "AI drives the marginal cost of the reproducible toward zero; value accrues to the scarce/verifiable; bitcoin gains relative share as the 'strongest horse'; pricing-in-bitcoin grows."
disconfirming_signal: "Scarce/verifiable assets earn no premium as AI content saturates."
- id: R3
seam: root
conviction_level: med-high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "pervasive (esp. custody/credit names)"
thematic_proposition: "Strategic bitcoin reserves (US/nation-states), SAB-121 repeal enabling bank custody, and ETF/treasury inflows create a price-inelastic bid and invert allocator career risk."
disconfirming_signal: "Reserve plans stall or reverse; banks stay out; policy turns adversarial."
# ---------- ENERGY <-> COMPUTE ----------
- id: E1
seam: energy_compute
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "MED-HIGH (Giga, Satoshi Energy)"
thematic_proposition: "Power, not chips, is the binding constraint on AI buildout through ~2027-28; the seam picks-and-shovels are under-priced."
team_conviction_note: "Giga, Satoshi Energy."
disconfirming_signal: "Chips/capital remain the bottleneck; interconnect clears fast."
- id: E2
seam: energy_compute
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "MED (Giga power-market optimization, Satoshi)"
thematic_proposition: "The miner flexible-load playbook (demand response, behind-the-meter) goes mainstream for AI data centers and grids; mining fluency is a transferable underwriting edge."
disconfirming_signal: "Data centers reject flexible load; the fluency proves non-transferable."
- id: E3
seam: energy_compute
conviction_level: med
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "Giga (straddle) vs Upstream (mining-only)"
thematic_proposition: "Mining-native operators that pivot into / straddle AI/HPC capture the convergence; mining-only underperforms."
team_conviction_note: "Deliberately low-conviction seed — engine should help resolve."
disconfirming_signal: "Pure-play mining outperforms straddlers."
# ---------- DEBASEMENT <-> BITCOIN ----------
- id: D1
seam: debasement_bitcoin
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "HIGH (Strike; Battery, Unchained, debifi, AnchorWatch)"
thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin-as-collateral goes mainstream: new BTC-collateralized credit products proliferate, spreads compress, and >=1 major traditional institution enters within 24-36 months. As products mature, holders borrow rather than sell, shrinking marginal supply."
disconfirming_signal: "Stays a crypto-native niche; no incumbent entry; spreads hold."
- id: D2
seam: debasement_bitcoin
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "portfolio-wide"
thematic_proposition: "Incumbents buy, not build: legacy finance/tech acquires bitcoin-natives rather than building in-house (the published exit thesis)."
disconfirming_signal: "Incumbents build in-house or via crypto-generalists; no strategic M&A."
- id: D3
seam: debasement_bitcoin
conviction_level: med-high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "enablers (Fold, AnchorWatch, Giga/Upstream)"
thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin commercialization of legacy operating businesses: compressed-multiple firms become structurally advantaged when rearchitected around bitcoin (treasury, settlement, self-hosted infra, stranded energy)."
disconfirming_signal: "Legacy adoption stalls; no margin advantage."
- id: D4
seam: debasement_bitcoin
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "HIGH (largest position, ~40%)"
thematic_proposition: "Strike re-rates as a bitcoin bank, not payments: market values it as exchange + major retail BTC-collateralized lender + global access (70+ jurisdictions), not legacy payments."
team_conviction_note: "Team conviction high; tracked SEPARATELY from the thematic re-rating."
disconfirming_signal: "Stays valued/stuck as payments; lending/exchange don't scale."
# ---------- AI <-> DATA-OWNERSHIP (PRIME under-acted-conviction target) ----------
- id: A1
seam: ai_data_ownership
conviction_level: high
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "LOW (Start9, OpenSecret/Maple, maybe Primal; small checks)"
thematic_proposition: "Owned judgment is the last margin: AI commoditizes competence and profit on undifferentiated output erodes toward zero, so durable margin needs owned/protected proprietary data + judgment; demand grows for sovereign-root + confidential-inference infra."
disconfirming_signal: "Enterprises cede data/inference with no margin penalty."
- id: A2
seam: ai_data_ownership
conviction_level: med
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "LOW"
thematic_proposition: "The segment that can't cede (regulated, IP-sensitive, adversarial jurisdictions) adopts owned infra + confidential inference even as the majority cedes to convenience."
disconfirming_signal: "Even the IP-sensitive segment fully cedes."
- id: A3
seam: ai_data_ownership
conviction_level: low
current_exposure: unset
exposure_note: "LOW"
thematic_proposition: "Start9 broadens beyond the bitcoiner niche (SaaS -> on-prem reversion)."
team_conviction_note: "Explicitly uncertain — team high, theme unproven ('maybe drinking our own koolaid, tbd'). Low-conviction seed the engine should help resolve."
disconfirming_signal: "Stays bitcoiner-niche."
# ---------- MONITORED THESIS-BREAKERS (engine must surface these AGAINST the thesis, §5.7) ----------
- id: B1
seam: root
is_thesis_breaker: true
conviction_level: low
current_exposure: unset
thematic_proposition: "Quantum acceleration compresses CRQC timelines inside NIST 2035 before mitigations deploy (bitcoin-leg breaker)."
disconfirming_signal: "n/a — this is a breaker the engine monitors FOR, not against."
- id: B2
seam: energy_compute
is_thesis_breaker: true
conviction_level: low
current_exposure: unset
thematic_proposition: "AI permanently outbids mining for power, pushing mining to only truly-stranded margin (energy-leg breaker)."
disconfirming_signal: "n/a — breaker the engine monitors FOR."
- id: B3
seam: debasement_bitcoin
is_thesis_breaker: true
conviction_level: low
current_exposure: unset
thematic_proposition: "Stablecoins/CBDCs capture the neutral-reserve role, or bitcoin fails as the exit (tests the complementary-stablecoin view)."
disconfirming_signal: "n/a — breaker the engine monitors FOR."
seeds/fanout.BATTERY2022.seed.yaml
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# Hand-written fan-out for the BATTERY 2022 bitcoin-as-collateral-credit thesis (D1) — two-sided test.
# The instructive split: DEMAND derivatives expected RISING (confirming), SUPPLY derivatives expected
# FLAT (the disconfirmation / timing-early signal the two-sided scorer should surface).
parent_conviction_id: BATTERY2022
nodes:
- node_id: BATTERY-demand-borrower-appetite
distance_from_edge: in_mandate
derivative_proposition: "Borrower demand for bitcoin-collateralized credit is rising (new products, origination growth, fund formations)."
- node_id: BATTERY-institutional-supply
distance_from_edge: in_mandate
derivative_proposition: "Named institutional capital PROVIDERS have actually DEPLOYED significant dollars (not merely announced or made-available) to FUND third-party bitcoin-collateralized loans at scale. (Capital-provider side only — a firm posting bitcoin as collateral to RECEIVE a loan is borrower-side demand, not supply; an announced/planned program is not deployed capital.)"
- node_id: BATTERY-incumbent-entry
distance_from_edge: in_mandate
derivative_proposition: "A major traditional financial institution has entered bitcoin-collateralized lending (D1's explicit milestone)."
- node_id: BATTERY-custody-policy-enablement
distance_from_edge: one_hop
derivative_proposition: "Regulatory and custody developments (SAB-121 repeal, bank custody clearance) are enabling institutional bitcoin credit."
seeds/fanout.K2023.seed.yaml
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# Hand-written fan-out for the §7.1 backtest (build-order step 4). These are the 2nd/3rd-order
# derivatives the frontier WOULD have generated from the 2023 Kirkwood conviction (K2023). Hand-writing
# them for v1 removes the frontier dependency from the FIRST backtest and isolates the real question:
# does the SCORING surface the derivative once it exists? (The §1.1 derivative tree, verbatim intent.)
parent_conviction_id: K2023
nodes:
- node_id: K2023-grid-interconnect
derivative_proposition: "Electrical grid interconnection capacity becomes the gating constraint on new data-center and compute load; interconnect queue times and grid upgrade costs blow out."
- node_id: K2023-transformers
derivative_proposition: "Demand for large power transformers and electrical equipment outstrips supply; lead times extend dramatically and pricing rises."
- node_id: K2023-nuclear
derivative_proposition: "Nuclear power — existing plants, long-term PPAs, SMRs — is repriced upward as firm clean baseload to power AI data centers."
- node_id: K2023-gas-turbines
derivative_proposition: "Natural-gas turbines and on-site/behind-the-meter generation see surging demand to power data centers where the grid cannot deliver in time."
- node_id: K2023-cooling
derivative_proposition: "Data-center cooling and thermal management (liquid cooling) demand accelerates as compute power density rises."
- node_id: K2023-uranium
derivative_proposition: "Uranium and nuclear-fuel supply tightens as nuclear demand to power compute rises."
- node_id: K2023-utilities-repriced
derivative_proposition: "Independent power producers and utilities with firm generation are repriced upward as data-center electricity demand surges."
- node_id: K2023-picks-and-shovels
derivative_proposition: "The public picks-and-shovels of the AI power buildout — power infrastructure, equipment, contracts, and generation serving data centers — are systematically under-priced and should be sized up."
seeds/fanout.STRIKE2022.seed.yaml
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# Hand-written fan-out for the STRIKE 2022 payments-network thesis (adversarial negative).
# distance_from_edge: tag for TRIAGE only (DESIGN_v2.1) — NEVER a filter. These are all in_mandate
# (core bitcoin). The test: does the engine CLEAR any of these on bitcoin-cluster reflexive chatter
# when retail Lightning payments never materialized? Each clear = a candidate FALSE POSITIVE.
parent_conviction_id: STRIKE2022
nodes:
- node_id: STRIKE-lightning-retail-acceptance
distance_from_edge: in_mandate
derivative_proposition: "Lightning-based retail payment acceptance is accelerating across major merchants and point-of-sale systems."
- node_id: STRIKE-card-rail-disruption
distance_from_edge: in_mandate
derivative_proposition: "Card-network payment volume and interchange economics are being disrupted by bitcoin/Lightning payment rails."
- node_id: STRIKE-merchant-lightning-integration
distance_from_edge: in_mandate
derivative_proposition: "Major merchants and processors are integrating Lightning for retail payments at scale (NCR / Shopify / Blackhawk-class), beyond pilots."
seeds/podcast_feeds.resolved.yaml
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# Resolved + VERIFIED podcast feeds (background research, 2026-06-07). Loaded via `load-feeds`.
# backtest_2022_2023 = how to reach the §7.1 window (2022-2023) for this show:
# rss_full — the RSS feed itself carries the full back-catalog into 2022-2023
# rss_2023_only — show launched in 2023; RSS is full from launch (no 2022 by design)
# youtube_only — RSS is a truncated rolling window; 2022-2023 must come from YouTube/site archive
# launched_later — show didn't exist in 2022-2023 (no backtest contribution)
# unavailable — no owned audio feed at all
#
# KEY FINDING: most podcast RSS feeds are rolling windows (~15-25 eps). For the backtest, the clean
# RSS-back-catalog shows (Hidden Forces, Dwarkesh, What Bitcoin Did, All-In, Invest Like the Best)
# anchor the 2022-2023 podcast leg; truncated shows need yt-dlp channel pulls with --dateafter/--datebefore.
feeds:
- {id: pod-oddlots, rss_url: "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/playlist/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8a94442e-5a74-4fa2-8b8d-ae27003a8d6b/982f5071-765c-403d-969d-ae27003a8d83/podcast.rss", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MuA6M0zkZyy-99-qc87wKV", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, note: "Omny RSS truncated to ~15 recent; show since 2015. 2022-2023 via YouTube/Apple/Spotify or Bloomberg YT."}
- {id: pod-forwardguidance, rss_url: "https://feeds.megaphone.fm/forwardguidance", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, note: "RSS truncated. Hosts the 2022-2023 Jack Farley macro content — KEY backtest source via YouTube @ForwardGuidanceBW."}
- {id: pod-macrovoices, rss_url: "https://feed.podbean.com/macrovoices/feed.xml", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@macrovoices7508", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, note: "RSS ~25 recent; weekly since 2016 (energy-heavy). 2022-2023 via macrovoices.com archive (29 pages) or YouTube."}
- {id: pod-grantwilliams, rss_url: "https://feed.podbean.com/ttmygh/feed.xml", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@GWTTMYGH", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, note: "RSS ~20 recent; much back-catalog paywalled (Copper/Silver). 2022-2023 via YouTube @GWTTMYGH."}
- {id: pod-monetarymatters, rss_url: "https://feeds.megaphone.fm/EWWMN1909747317", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters", backtest_2022_2023: launched_later, note: "Launched Sep 2024 — NO 2022-2023. For 2022-2023 Jack Farley use Forward Guidance instead."}
- {id: pod-hiddenforces, rss_url: "https://hiddenforces.libsyn.com/rss", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8URhgYos5fjHqFSO4RSIEg", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, note: "FULL via RSS: 507 eps to 2017 (libsyn). 67 eps in 2022, 55 in 2023. Anchor backtest source."}
- {id: pod-dwarkesh, rss_url: "https://apple.dwarkesh-podcast.workers.dev/feed.rss", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatel", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, note: "FULL via RSS: 128 eps to 2020; 25 in 2022, 20 in 2023. NB do NOT use api.substack.com/feed/podcast/69345.rss (stale/truncated)."}
- {id: pod-nopriors, rss_url: "https://feeds.megaphone.fm/nopriors", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@NoPriorsPodcast", backtest_2022_2023: rss_2023_only, note: "FULL from Feb 2023 launch (165 eps); no 2022 by design."}
- {id: pod-latentspace, rss_url: "https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/1084089.rss", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@LatentSpacePod", backtest_2022_2023: rss_2023_only, note: "FULL from Feb 2023 launch (207 eps, 50 in 2023); no 2022 by design."}
- {id: pod-cognitiverev, rss_url: "https://feeds.megaphone.fm/RINTP3108857801", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast", backtest_2022_2023: rss_2023_only, note: "FULL from Feb 2023 launch (348 eps, 91 in 2023); no 2022 by design."}
- {id: pod-bg2, rss_url: "https://anchor.fm/s/f06c2370/podcast/rss", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@Bg2Pod", backtest_2022_2023: launched_later, note: "Launched Jan 2024 — NO 2022-2023."}
- {id: pod-a16z, rss_url: "https://feeds.simplecast.com/JGE3yC0V", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@a16z", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, note: "RSS truncated to ~15 recent; show since 2014 (~1000 eps). 2022-2023 via a16z.com/podcasts or YouTube."}
- {id: pod-catalyst, rss_url: "https://feeds.megaphone.fm/catalyst", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1dCBgJnwO5fgNVEn2BgQbg", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, note: "RSS ~15 recent; 258 eps since 2021 (energy). 2022-2023 via Latitude Media site or YouTube Catalyst playlist."}
- {id: pod-columbiaenergy, rss_url: "https://columbiaenergyexchange.libsyn.com/rss", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5vAhRqHufSZNB9coZG5t6Q", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, note: "RSS ~28 recent; long-running (CGEP). 2022-2023 via energypolicy.columbia.edu archive (has transcripts!) or YouTube."}
- {id: pod-doomberg, rss_url: null, youtube_channel_url: null, backtest_2022_2023: unavailable, note: "NO owned audio feed — Doomberg is a Substack newsletter; only guest appearances on other shows. Consider ingesting the written Substack (text) or drop from the audio set."}
- {id: pod-bitcoinlayer, rss_url: "https://feeds.simplecast.com/Y2219Riv", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@TheBitcoinLayer", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, note: "RSS ~25 recent (partial); show since 2022. 2022-2023 via YouTube @TheBitcoinLayer. cluster_capped_low."}
- {id: pod-whatbitcoindid, rss_url: "https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/69d4f193b76468caacc5068f", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@WhatBitcoinDid", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, note: "FULL via RSS (Acast): 1060 eps to 2017; 155 in 2022, 156 in 2023. cluster_capped_low. (Peter McCormack show, ID 1317356120 — not the Danny Knowles spinoff.)"}
- {id: pod-allin, rss_url: "https://rss.libsyn.com/shows/254861/destinations/1928300.xml", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@allin", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, note: "FULL via RSS: 384 eps to 2020; 61 in 2022, 50 in 2023. Consensus barometer."}
- {id: pod-iltb, rss_url: "https://feeds.megaphone.fm/investlikethebest", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@ILTB_Podcast", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, note: "FULL via RSS: 582 eps to 2016; 57 in 2022, 53 in 2023."}
- {id: pod-lex, rss_url: "https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/", youtube_channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, note: "RSS truncated to ~19 recent; show since 2018. 2022-2023 via YouTube @lexfridman or lexlib.io index."}
seeds/resolution.BATTERY2022.yaml
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# PRE-REGISTERED resolution — BATTERY 2022 bitcoin-as-collateral-credit thesis (D1). Two-sided.
# DESIGN_v2.1 condition 2: hostile-checker-proof — named institutions, dollar figures, dated events.
# Instrument = the two-sided net-corroboration (affirms − denies) trajectory per derivative
# (condition 3): the engine should show DEMAND rising while SUPPLY stays flat — the "half-confirmed,
# load-bearing half not moving" disconfirmation, NOT clear the supply derivatives early.
thesis: "Bitcoin-as-collateral credit goes mainstream; institutional/incumbent capital funds it at scale within 24-36 months (>=1 major institution enters)."
window: {start: "2022-01-01", end: "2024-12-31"}
metric_type: adoption_evidence
criteria:
BATTERY-demand-borrower-appetite:
expected: rising
confirm_iff: ">=3 NAMED active BTC-collateralized credit products/originators operating by 2024-12-31 (e.g. Unchained, Ledn, Strike lending, Battery, Salt, debifi) — countable, datable."
checks: ["count of named BTC-collateralized lenders active 2024 with origination", "any public origination-volume figures"]
BATTERY-institutional-supply:
expected: flat
confirm_iff: "A NAMED institution/bank committed a stated DOLLAR figure of lending capital to BTC-collateralized credit AT SCALE (>$100M) by 2024-12-31."
checks: ["named institutional capital provider + committed $ to BTC-collateralized lending (yes/no + figure)", "BTC-credit fund AUM from institutional LPs — figure"]
BATTERY-incumbent-entry:
expected: not_yet
confirm_iff: "A top-50 (by assets) traditional bank/financial institution PUBLICLY entered BTC-collateralized lending by 2024-12-31 (named institution + dated announcement)."
checks: ["named top-50 bank offering/funding BTC-collateralized loans — yes/no + date"]
BATTERY-custody-policy-enablement:
expected: late_edge
confirm_iff: "SAB-121 repealed/rescinded AND bank BTC-custody cleared WITHIN window (<=2024-12-31)."
checks: ["SAB-121 status + exact date (pre-registered fact: issued 2022-03-31; rescinded by SAB-122 on 2025-01-23 — JUST PAST the window, so this resolves 'arrived at the edge, not in window')"]
prior_expectation: "EARLY on the SUPPLY axis: demand rose (multiple named lenders), institutional supply stalled through 2024 (no named top-50 incumbent at scale), the policy catalyst (SAB-121 repeal) landed Jan 2025 — just past window. The two-sided scorer should surface the supply-side DISCONFIRMATION."
seeds/resolution.K2023.yaml
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# PRE-REGISTERED resolution criteria for the §7.1 backtest confusion matrix (DESIGN_v2 §1.1).
# Committed BEFORE pulling any price data. Uniform rule for ALL derivatives:
# - equal-weight, start-normalized basket index over 2023-01-01 .. 2025-06-30
# - "confirmed real" iff index first hits >= +40% vs 2023-01 baseline on date D AND still >= +25% at D+90d
# - repricing_date = D
# Baskets are best-judgment liquid proxies for each derivative's real-world exposure, drawn from the
# §7.3 source universe. They are NOT tuned to outcomes. Grant/dev may revise the baskets — but doing so
# is a logged pre-registration change (DESIGN_v2 §4), not a quiet tune.
window: {start: "2023-01-01", end: "2025-06-30"}
rule: {threshold_pct: 40, hold_pct: 25, hold_days: 90}
baskets:
K2023: [CEG, VST, TLN, NEE, GEV, VRT, PWR, CCJ] # root: broad power-infra build
K2023-picks-and-shovels: [CEG, VST, TLN, NEE, GEV, VRT, PWR, CCJ] # broad power-infra basket
K2023-uranium: [CCJ] # Cameco = the liquid uranium proxy in-corpus
K2023-nuclear: [CEG, TLN, VST] # nuclear-heavy IPPs
K2023-utilities-repriced: [CEG, VST, NEE, TLN] # IPPs / utilities with firm generation
K2023-grid-interconnect: [PWR, GEV] # grid build / interconnection (Quanta, GE Vernova)
K2023-transformers: [GEV, VRT] # electrical equipment
K2023-gas-turbines: [GEV] # GE Vernova gas turbines
K2023-cooling: [VRT] # Vertiv = data-center thermal/cooling proxy
seeds/resolution.STRIKE2022.yaml
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# PRE-REGISTERED resolution — STRIKE 2022 payments-network thesis (adversarial NEGATIVE).
# DESIGN_v2.1 condition 2: indicators must survive a HOSTILE checker — named, countable, datable
# things a disinterested third party could look up and get the SAME yes/no. No "material scale" hand-waving.
# Committed before evidence-gathering. The instrument for the engine output is NOT runway — it is the
# two-sided net-corroboration (affirms − denies) trajectory (DESIGN_v2.1 condition 3): a PASS for Strike
# looks like the engine STAYING QUIET (no clear) or the disconfirming side accumulating, NOT clearing early.
thesis: "Bitcoin/Lightning becomes a retail payments network that materially disrupts the card rails."
window: {start: "2022-01-01", end: "2024-12-31"}
metric_type: adoption_evidence
criteria:
STRIKE-merchant-lightning-integration:
# The 2022 memo promised specific integrations. Datable: did each ship Lightning RETAIL acceptance
# at general availability (not a pilot/press release) by 2024-12-31? Three named yes/no checks.
confirm_iff: ">=2 of {NCR/Aloha PoS, Shopify, Blackhawk Network} shipped Lightning retail payment acceptance at GENERAL AVAILABILITY with sustained merchant usage by 2024-12-31."
checks: ["NCR (now NCR Voyix/Aloha) Lightning retail acceptance GA? yes/no", "Shopify native Lightning checkout GA at scale? yes/no", "Blackhawk Network Lightning retail acceptance GA? yes/no"]
STRIKE-lightning-retail-acceptance:
confirm_iff: "A NAMED, citable figure shows Lightning-settled RETAIL payment volume > $1B/year by 2024, OR Strike publicly reports merchant-acceptance/payments as a material (>10% of revenue) line."
checks: ["Lightning Network public retail payment-volume estimate (bitcoinvisuals / River Lightning report) — figure + date", "Strike public revenue/product mix disclosure — merchant payments a named line? yes/no"]
STRIKE-card-rail-disruption:
confirm_iff: "Any Visa/Mastercard 10-K/earnings disclosure attributing SUSTAINED US retail payment-volume erosion to bitcoin/Lightning by 2024-12-31."
checks: ["Visa FY22-24 10-K: bitcoin/Lightning named as a volume-erosion factor? yes/no", "Mastercard FY22-24 10-K: same? yes/no"]
prior_expectation: "FAILED. Strike's growth came from exchange + BTC-collateralized lending, not retail payments. The PRECISION TEST: if the engine CLEARS any of these on bitcoin-cluster (own_network-tagged) chatter while the named checks are NO, that is the reflexive false positive the discipline must catch."
seeds/resolution_outcomes.adversarial.yaml
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# HOSTILE-VERIFIED outcome labels for the adversarial cases (gathered AFTER the criteria in
# resolution.{STRIKE,BATTERY}2022.yaml were frozen — correct pre-registration order). Each was
# researched then independently re-verified by a skeptic agent to the "survive a hostile checker"
# standard. `played_out` is normalized to the THESIS reality (yes = the derivative came true), not the
# agent's verdict word (which was polarity-inconsistent on the card-erosion check).
STRIKE2022: # payments thesis — verified DEAD on all three (the clean negative we needed)
STRIKE-merchant-lightning-integration:
played_out: no
evidence: "Only Shopify reached GA (Strike app, 8 lifetime reviews in 3 yrs = trivial). Blackhawk: Strike CEO's own 2022-12-31 update = 'final testing, planned early-2023 launch at 50 locations' — never confirmed live. NCR/Aloha: no ship, no timeline. <2 of 3 at scale."
cite: ["jimmymow.medium.com/strike-commerce-update", "apps.shopify.com/strike", "fortune.com/crypto/2024/04/24 (demand was trading/custody, not POS)"]
STRIKE-lightning-retail-acceptance:
played_out: no
evidence: "No named retail Lightning volume >$1B/yr in 2024. Strike's only disclosure ($6B 2024 'payments volume', Apr-2025) is unsegmented and dominated by brokerage buy/sell + remittance. River: total Lightning (all uses) only hit ~$1B/MONTH in late 2025."
cite: ["news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-payments-firm-strike-grew-600-in-2024", "River Lightning report"]
STRIKE-card-rail-disruption:
played_out: no
evidence: "ZERO erosion attribution. Full-text search of all 5 as-filed 10-Ks (Visa FY22-24, MC FY23-24): 'bitcoin' and 'lightning' appear 0 times; crypto only in generic forward-looking risk lists. Card networks grew."
cite: ["SEC EDGAR Visa/Mastercard 10-Ks"]
BATTERY2022: # D1 — demand REAL, supply FAILED, + an instructive milestone-vs-substance wrinkle
BATTERY-demand-borrower-appetite:
played_out: yes
evidence: ">=4 named BTC-collateralized originators active through 2024 (Unchained ~$1B cumulative by 2025; Ledn ~$392M FY24 origination; plus Strike lending, Salt, debifi, AnchorWatch)."
cite: ["thebloc / Ledn", "Unchained disclosures"]
BATTERY-institutional-supply:
played_out: no
binding_constraint: capital_provider_willingness # NOT regulation — see custody-policy note below
evidence: "No named institution DEPLOYED >$100M of BTC-collateralized lending capital at scale IN 2024. Cantor Fitzgerald's $2B program announced 2024-07-27 but first loans (FalconX, Maple) closed 2025-05-27 — zero deployed in window. CRITICAL CAUSAL NOTE: the constraint was capital-provider WILLINGNESS, not regulatory permissibility — nothing legally restricted dollar holders from funding these loans. Proof: the 2025 regulatory unblock (SAB-122) did NOT produce institutional dollars; Battery remains unraised as of 2026. Measure supply as actual committed/deployed capital, never as the regulatory enabler."
cite: ["Cantor BTC-lending announcements", "Battery raise status thru 2026 (unraised)"]
BATTERY-incumbent-entry:
played_out: token # IMPORTANT WRINKLE: milestone technically met EARLY, but token — NOT the at-scale thesis
evidence: "Goldman Sachs (5th-largest US bank) executed ONE bitcoin-collateralized loan ~late-Apr-2022 (on-record spokeswoman, CoinDesk 2022-04-28). A one-off facility, not scaled BTC-lending entry. The D1 milestone phrasing ('>=1 major institution enters') resolves YES on this; the SUBSTANCE ('institutional capital at scale') resolves NO. Same reality, opposite verdicts by phrasing."
cite: ["coindesk.com 2022-04-28 (Goldman BTC-collateralized loan)"]
BATTERY-custody-policy-enablement:
played_out: edge
axis: context # ENABLER/CONTEXT, not the supply resolver — weight 0 into the supply score
evidence: "SAB-121 issued 2022-03-31; rescinded by SAB-122 on 2025-01-23 — just PAST the 2024-12-31 window. But this axis is CONTEXT, not supply: the post-window unblock did NOT produce capital for Battery (still unraised in 2026), demonstrating regulation was never the binding constraint on Battery's supply leg. Retained here only to show the policy-YES / supply-NO divergence — an engine must NOT read this enabler as supply arriving (that's the false-positive S1 exists to catch)."
cite: ["sec.gov SAB-121 / SAB-122", "Battery still unraised post-SAB-122 (2026)"]
seeds/river_docs.manifest.yaml
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# River research docs to ingest (verified fetchable + TEXT-extractable, workflow wxlh2oinb).
# Image-based PDFs (river-lightning-report.pdf 2022, river-bitcoin-adoption-report-2025/2026.pdf) are
# OMITTED — zero text layer (pypdf extracts nothing); revisit with OCR if needed.
# Loaded by: signal_engine ingest-doc-manifest --file seeds/river_docs.manifest.yaml
docs:
# --- LIGHTNING / PAYMENTS (most Strike-thesis-relevant, in-window) ---
- {source: src-river, method: html, date: "2023-10-10", title: "River Lightning Report 2023 — The Lightning Network Grew 1212% in 2 Years", url: "https://river.com/content/the-lightning-network-in-2023"}
- {source: src-river, method: pdf, date: "2023-06-14", title: "River Payments Report — Bitcoin vs the $156 Trillion Global Payments Industry", url: "https://river.com/learn/files/river-payments-report.pdf"}
# --- ADOPTION / THESIS research ---
- {source: src-river, method: html, date: "2024-09-04", title: "River — Why Business Bitcoin Adoption Grew by 30% in 1 Year", url: "https://river.com/content/business-bitcoin-adoption-2024"}
- {source: src-river, method: pdf, date: "2024-11-14", title: "River — Entering The Dual Money Era", url: "https://river.com/learn/files/river-dual-money-era-2024.pdf"}
- {source: src-river, method: html, date: "2023-11-21", title: "River — Is There a Best Time and Day to DCA Bitcoin?", url: "https://river.com/content/best-time-and-day-to-dca-bitcoin"}
- {source: src-river, method: html, date: "2022-12-08", title: "River — What Could Bitcoin Mining Look Like at One Zettahash?", url: "https://river.com/content/what-could-bitcoin-mining-look-like-at-one-zettahash"}
seeds/source_edges.bitcoin.seed.yaml
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# EISC connectedness edges for the bitcoin cluster (workflow wd2a9zb9e, 2026-06-08).
# These are PRIORS so the independence model discounts shared-guest/citation/community overlap BEFORE
# transcription auto-detects it. The transcribe_worker upserts onto the SAME PK (it stores sorted([a,b]),
# weight += 1.0 on conflict), so seeding in sorted order means real detections accumulate — no reversed dup.
# Math is undirected (frozenset); kappa is applied in-code {shared_guest 0.85, citation 0.45, community 0.60}.
# weight = per-edge strength multiplier (1.0 = one strong overlap; clamp 0.95). Loaded idempotently (DO NOTHING).
# RULE: an own_network host (Ten31 portfolio/partner) is QUARANTINED in live mode regardless of edges;
# edges still matter in TEST mode and for independent<->independent discounting.
edges:
# --- host-identity / co-host core (the Ten31 own_network orbit; near-total redundancy) ---
- {a: pod-tftc, b: pod-rabbitholerecap, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Marty Bent hosts both (host identity)"}
- {a: pod-citadeldispatch, b: pod-rabbitholerecap, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Matt Odell hosts both (host identity)"}
- {a: pod-tftc, b: pod-citadeldispatch, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Bent+Odell co-host RHR weekly + constant guest-swap"}
- {a: pod-tftc, b: pod-rabbitholerecap, type: citation, weight: 1.0, evidence: "RHR is the weekly recap/companion within the TFTC network; re-surfaces TFTC segments"}
# --- What Bitcoin Did <-> Ten31-orbit core (own_network=false but heavy host-level overlap) ---
- {a: pod-whatbitcoindid, b: pod-citadeldispatch, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "McCormack/Odell repeat cross-guests + conference panels 2022-2023 (Odell on WBD518)"}
- {a: pod-whatbitcoindid, b: pod-tftc, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "McCormack/Bent mutual guests + co-panelists 2022-2023"}
- {a: pod-whatbitcoindid, b: pod-rabbitholerecap, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "McCormack alongside Odell+Bent repeatedly; densest guest-swap triangle"}
# --- Stephan Livera <-> core + WBD (connective tissue of the independent leg) ---
- {a: pod-stephanlivera, b: pod-citadeldispatch, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Livera/Odell frequent mutual guests; shared Lightning/self-custody circuit"}
- {a: pod-stephanlivera, b: pod-tftc, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Livera/Bent repeat cross-guests + co-panelists 2022-2023"}
- {a: pod-stephanlivera, b: pod-rabbitholerecap, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Livera overlaps RHR hosts via constant mutual guesting"}
- {a: pod-stephanlivera, b: pod-whatbitcoindid, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Top-tier interview hosts sharing the same revolving guest roster"}
# --- Bitcoin Audible + Anita Posch peripheral (independent leg internal coupling) ---
- {a: pod-bitcoinaudible, b: pod-stephanlivera, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Guy Swann recurring on SLP / Lightning-essay circuit"}
- {a: pod-bitcoinaudible, b: pod-whatbitcoindid, type: community, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Same English-language BTC podcast sub-scene; overlapping audience/guest pool"}
- {a: pod-anitaposch, b: pod-stephanlivera, type: community, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Same advocacy sub-scene; peripheral (Global-South focus, separate roster)"}
- {a: pod-anitaposch, b: pod-bitcoinaudible, type: community, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Educational/advocacy BTC sub-scene overlap"}
# --- The Bitcoin Layer (macro node; edges-only, RSS dropped) ---
- {a: pod-bitcoinlayer, b: pod-whatbitcoindid, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Nik Bhatia recurring macro/rates guest on WBD 2022-2023"}
- {a: pod-bitcoinlayer, b: pod-stephanlivera, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Bhatia macro/Fed guest in SLP orbit 2022-2023"}
- {a: pod-bitcoinlayer, b: pod-stephanlivera, type: community, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Shared macro-leaning corner (rates/liquidity framing)"}
# --- NEW independent legs <-> core (the 'missing' edges: they share the same guest roster) ---
- {a: pod-citadeldispatch, b: pod-coinstories, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Odell guested Coin Stories; Brunell on shared interview circuit"}
- {a: pod-coinstories, b: pod-tftc, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Bent co-paneled w/ Brunell (Pomp panel etc.)"}
- {a: pod-coinstories, b: pod-whatbitcoindid, type: community, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Same high-reach BTC interview circuit; overlapping Mallers/Saylor/Marcus roster"}
- {a: pod-bitcoinstandard, b: pod-citadeldispatch, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Odell guested Bitcoin Standard ep #126 'Stacking Sats with Matt Odell' (Aug 2022)"}
- {a: pod-kevinrooke, b: pod-stephanlivera, type: community, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Shared Lightning-operator guest pool (Breez/Voltage/Amboss/River)"}
- {a: pod-kevinrooke, b: pod-tftc, type: community, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Shared Lightning-operator guest pool / scene overlap"}
- {a: pod-bitcoinmagazine, b: pod-citadeldispatch, type: community, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Odell historical BM contributor; shared contributor/guest pool"}
- {a: pod-simplybitcoin, b: pod-tftc, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Bent guested 'WE WILL WIN | Simply Bitcoin IRL'"}
# --- Quarantine fixtures <-> core (matter only in TEST mode; live-dropped as own_network) ---
- {a: pod-bitcoinreview, b: pod-citadeldispatch, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Odell recurring co-host of Bitcoin.Review (BR001-011 'ft. Odell')"}
- {a: pod-cafebitcoin, b: pod-citadeldispatch, type: shared_guest, weight: 1.0, evidence: "Odell (Swan advisor) ran 'Bitcoin Lightning Summit' on Cafe Bitcoin"}
seeds/sources.battery.seed.yaml
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# Battery (bitcoin-collateralized lending) text-corpus sources — from verified manifest (workflow w7559rp1x, 2026-06-08).
# kind=filing (text docs, no transcription). cluster: 'credit' = the crypto-credit ecosystem; 'macro' = policy regulators.
# own_network=1 → Ten31-affiliated (quarantined in live: Ten31 hearing its own ecosystem). lineage captured in notes.
# AXIS DISCIPLINE: policy sources are CONTEXT — their claims map to the custody-policy-enablement fan-out node, never the
# institutional-supply node. SUPPLY resolves only on committed/deployed-capital claims (Galaxy/Coinbase/Cantor-funded).
sources:
# --- SUPPLY: committed/deployed capital + market data (the resolver tier) ---
- {id: bat-galaxy, name: "Galaxy Research", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "independent — State of Crypto Lending dataset + quarterly loan-book ($863M Q3'24). THE in-window deployed-dollar supply measure."}
- {id: bat-9fin, name: "9fin (credit data)", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "independent credit-data — names BTC-backed private-credit funders."}
- {id: bat-cantor, name: "Cantor Fitzgerald (PR)", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "primary — $2B program ANNOUNCED Jul-2024 (future tense, no funding source named). Announced≠funded anchor."}
- {id: bat-falconx, name: "FalconX (newsroom)", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "primary — closed FIRST Cantor financing May-2025 (out-of-window): proves in-window Cantor was announce-only."}
- {id: bat-maple, name: "Maple Finance (insights)", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "primary — first Cantor tranche May-2025 (out-of-window). Funding source = Cantor balance sheet."}
- {id: bat-twoprime, name: "Two Prime", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "primary/independent — sees $2B DEMAND, discloses ZERO deployed (the supply absence), Nov-2023 in-window."}
- {id: bat-battery, name: "Battery Finance / Newmarket (PR)", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: true, notes: "OWN_NETWORK — Battery is a Ten31 PARTNERSHIP. Launch Nov-2024: ONE funded deal, NO pooled committed-capital figure, NO named funding source. The absence is the signal."}
- {id: bat-bitcoinmag, name: "Bitcoin Magazine (business desk)", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "independent-but-aligned (bitcoin-advocacy media) — original interview re Battery launch; mechanics, no fund size."}
# --- DEMAND: originator disclosures ---
- {id: bat-unchained, name: "Unchained (blog)", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: true, notes: "OWN_NETWORK — Unchained is a Ten31 PORTFOLIO co. Demand: >$500M cumulative origination."}
- {id: bat-ledn, name: "Ledn (Open Book)", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "primary — monthly Open Book origination disclosures (>$10B cumulative)."}
- {id: bat-salt, name: "SALT Lending (blog)", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "primary — paginated blog archive (v2: crawl /blog/page/N/)."}
- {id: bat-debifi, name: "Debifi", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: true, notes: "OWN_NETWORK — Ten31 portfolio. Demand-side lender (v2: Medium RSS crawl)."}
# --- DOWNSTREAM echo (near-zero independence — event detection / corroboration only) ---
- {id: bat-coindesk, name: "CoinDesk", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: DX, own_network: false, notes: "downstream — independent trade press; Cantor-funded + Two Prime coverage."}
- {id: bat-coinspeaker, name: "Coinspeaker", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: DX, own_network: false, notes: "downstream — Coinbase institutional-lending (>$57M committed, Reg D) Sept-2023."}
- {id: bat-asr, name: "Asset Securitization Report", kind: filing, cluster: credit, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "independent structured-credit — Milo crypto-mortgage 2022 (soft paywall)."}
# --- POLICY CONTEXT (axis=context — weight 0 into supply; maps to custody-policy fan-out node only) ---
- {id: bat-sec, name: "SEC (policy primaries)", kind: filing, cluster: macro, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "axis=CONTEXT — SAB-121 (2022) / SAB-122 (2025). NOT a supply input."}
- {id: bat-fed, name: "Federal Reserve (policy)", kind: filing, cluster: macro, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "axis=CONTEXT — SR 22-6 (crypto-collateralized loans), SR 23-7 Novel Activities."}
- {id: bat-fdic, name: "FDIC (policy)", kind: filing, cluster: macro, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "axis=CONTEXT — FIL-16-2022 crypto prior-notification."}
- {id: bat-occ, name: "OCC (policy)", kind: filing, cluster: macro, role: IND, own_network: false, notes: "axis=CONTEXT — IL 1170/1179 (custody + supervisory-non-objection gate)."}
seeds/sources.bitcoin.seed.yaml
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# Bitcoin-cluster sources for the STRIKE reflexivity backtest (DESIGN_v2.1). Resolved + verified.
# own_network=1 → the Ten31 orbit (Odell/Bent partners) = QUARANTINED (dropped in live EISC, test fixture).
# The independent leg (own_network unset) is the non-self-referential corroboration for the Strike test.
# All bitcoin cluster → cluster_capped_low (§4.5). rss_url verified to parse; FULL = reaches 2022-2023.
sources:
# --- OWN-NETWORK ORBIT (quarantined) ---
- {id: pod-tftc, name: "TFTC (Marty Bent)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: true, rss_url: "https://feeds.fountain.fm/ZwwaDULvAj0yZvJ5kdB9", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@TFTC", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "FULL: 112 eps 2022, 88 in 2023. Ten31 partner — own_network."}
- {id: pod-citadeldispatch, name: "Citadel Dispatch (Matt Odell)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: true, rss_url: "https://serve.podhome.fm/rss/c90e609a-df1e-596a-bd5e-57bcc8aad6cc", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoA72saVAuQ8hYCnBO0Lymw", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "FULL: 53 eps 2022, 37 in 2023. Ten31 partner — own_network."}
- {id: pod-rabbitholerecap, name: "Rabbit Hole Recap (Odell + Bent)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: true, rss_url: "https://feeds.fountain.fm/0EAzqUaM4qqanDr1qNuK", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@TFTC", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "FULL: 230 eps 2022 (launched Apr 2022), 51 in 2023. Both Ten31 partners — own_network."}
# --- INDEPENDENT bitcoin / Lightning-payments discourse (the non-self-referential leg) ---
- {id: pod-stephanlivera, name: "Stephan Livera Podcast", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://anchor.fm/s/7d083a4/podcast/rss", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDqPIrJSzHyyJpmH6wnxVxA", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED RSS FULL (2026-06-08): anchor.fm feed has 739 eps 2018-2026, 203 in 2022-2023 window — earlier 'truncated/youtube_only' note was wrong. Strong independent Lightning-payments discourse."}
- {id: pod-bitcoinaudible, name: "Bitcoin Audible (Guy Swann)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://feeds.castos.com/mj96z", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClG-wqz-OuXfzbpqwJd3fVA", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "FULL: 1375 eps since 2018, deep archive. Reads/narrates Lightning retail-payments essays. Independent."}
- {id: pod-anitaposch, name: "The Anita Posch Show", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://www.vodio.fr/rssmedias.php?valeur=1673", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/AnitaPosch", backtest_2022_2023: rss_partial, notes: "RESOLVED 2026-06-08: original bitcoinundco feed 302s to homepage (0 items); vodio re-host has 183 eps 2018-2025, 30 in 2022-2023 window (op3.dev->mp3 enclosures). Modest but real independent leg (Global South / payments focus)."}
# === EXPANSION (workflow wd2a9zb9e, 2026-06-08): feeds curl-verified + own_network cross-checked vs Ten31 portfolio/team by an adversarial pass. ===
# --- INDEPENDENT, HIGH Strike relevance (Lightning/retail-payments) — primary corroboration legs ---
- {id: pod-kevinrooke, name: "The Kevin Rooke Show", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://anchor.fm/s/71a8cc78/podcast/rss", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@KevinRooke", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 145 eps, 127 in 2022-2023. MOST Lightning-laser-focused independent show (TLS series: Breez/BTCPay/OpenNode/Muun/Voltage/River). Highest signal-per-ep for payments thesis. No Ten31 tie."}
- {id: pod-whatbitcoindid, name: "What Bitcoin Did (Peter McCormack)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/69d4f193b76468caacc5068f", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@WhatBitcoinDid", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 1060 eps, 311 in 2022-2023 (now branded 'The Peter McCormack Show', WBD### back-catalog intact). own_network=FALSE — McCormack NOT a Ten31 partner/portfolio (external capital is Winklevoss/Gemini); heavy guest-overlap w/ Odell/Bent core captured as shared_guest EDGES, not quarantine. Ran Lightning series + Mallers/Strike interviews."}
- {id: pod-bitcoinmagazine, name: "Bitcoin Magazine Podcast", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://anchor.fm/s/cefa18a0/podcast/rss", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@BitcoinMagazine", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 788 eps, 304 in 2022-2023. BTC Inc (Nakamoto/Bailey orbit, NOT Ten31). Hosts 2022-23 Keroles/Lindner. Heavy Lightning/Mallers/merchant coverage. own_network=false."}
- {id: pod-coinstories, name: "Coin Stories (Natalie Brunell)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://rss.libsyn.com/shows/344543/destinations/2813255.xml", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@CoinStoriesNatalieBrunell", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 500 eps, 155 in 2022-2023. Independent journalist; 2x Jack Mallers (Strike CEO), Marcus/Saylor on Lightning, El-Salvador/merchant eps. own_network=false (Odell/Bent only as guests)."}
- {id: pod-bitcoinstandard, name: "The Bitcoin Standard Podcast (Saifedean Ammous)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://rss.buzzsprout.com/1849151.rss", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@saifedean", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 365 eps, 103 in 2022-2023. CORRECTION: in-window Strike relevance is MEDIUM not high (cited Mallers ep #89 is Nov-2021, out-of-window; in-window core is Austrian econ/Fiat Food). Independent. own_network=false."}
- {id: pod-simplybitcoin, name: "Simply Bitcoin", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://anchor.fm/s/717a2198/podcast/rss", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@SimplyBitcoinTV", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 1689 eps, 574 in 2022-2023. Independent daily-news (Nico+Opti, not Swan). Recurring Mallers/Strike/El-Salvador/Lightning but daily-news frame → strike_relevance MEDIUM. own_network=false (Bent only as guest)."}
# --- OWN-NETWORK (Ten31 PORTFOLIO host) — QUARANTINE fixtures: highest Strike density, but Ten31-owned → drop in live EISC ---
- {id: pod-cafebitcoin, name: "The Cafe Bitcoin Podcast (Swan)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://feeds.simplecast.com/H9Jmx_ko", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@SwanBitcoin", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 648 eps, 495 in 2022-2023. own_network=FALSE — RECLASSIFIED 2026-06-08 per Grant: Ten31's Swan investment is IMMATERIAL → NOT a conflict → INDEPENDENT. Highest Lightning-payments density → strong INDEPENDENT leg for Strike."}
- {id: pod-bitcoinreview, name: "Bitcoin.Review (NVK / Coinkite)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: true, rss_url: "https://serve.podhome.fm/rss/7cd0202b-463c-5b2e-b252-d4845cb71466", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@BitcoinReview", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 97 eps, 57 in 2022-2023 (launched Jun 2022). own_network=TRUE — host NVK is CEO of Coinkite, a Ten31 PORTFOLIO co (Ten31-led Series A); Odell recurring co-host. Dense Lightning/ecash/wallet content → QUARANTINE fixture."}
# --- INDEPENDENT, lower Strike relevance — BROAD bitcoin corpus (source rows recorded; NOT auto-queued for transcription yet) ---
- {id: pod-whatismoney, name: "The What is Money? Show (Robert Breedlove)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://feeds.simplecast.com/MLdpYXYI", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@RobertBreedlove", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 600 eps, 314 in 2022-2023. Money-philosophy/macro dominant; intermittent Lightning → strike med-low. Independent (no Ten31 tie). BROAD corpus."}
- {id: pod-unchained-shin, name: "Unchained (Laura Shin)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://feeds.megaphone.fm/LSHML4761942757", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@Unchained_pod", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 1174 eps, 303 in 2022-2023. NAME-COLLISION GUARD: Laura Shin's podcast is NOT Ten31's portfolio co 'Unchained Capital' (custody firm) — distinct entities. own_network=false. Broad multi-chain/crypto, Eth-heavy → strike medium. BROAD corpus."}
- {id: pod-bitcoinfundamentals, name: "Bitcoin Fundamentals (Preston Pysh)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://feeds.megaphone.fm/PPLLC8974708240", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@PrestonPysh", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: combined We-Study-Billionaires feed; Bitcoin leg = BTC###-prefixed eps, 105 in 2022-2023. INGEST NOTE: needs a BTC### title filter (not yet supported by ingest-podcast) → defer. Pysh is GP at Ego Death Capital (rival BTC VC) → independent of Ten31. BROAD corpus."}
- {id: pod-pomp, name: "The Pomp Podcast (Anthony Pompliano)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://anchor.fm/s/b4841110/podcast/rss", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/@AnthonyPompliano", backtest_2022_2023: rss_full, notes: "VERIFIED rss_full: 1741 eps, 519 in 2022-2023. Broad business/crypto, light on Lightning retail-payments → strike low. Consensus barometer. Independent. BROAD corpus."}
# --- KEEP but DROP from RSS ingest: pod-bitcoinlayer 2022-2023 audio is YouTube-only (Soundwise/Simplecast feeds start 2024). Edge-node only unless YouTube path added. ---
- {id: pod-bitcoinlayer, name: "The Bitcoin Layer (Nik Bhatia)", kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, rss_url: "https://app.mysoundwise.com/rss/1665708396190s", channel_url: "https://www.youtube.com/c/thebitcoinlayer", backtest_2022_2023: youtube_only, notes: "rss_partial: all audio RSS feeds (Soundwise/Simplecast) start 2024; 2022-2023 back-catalog only on YouTube (chan UCDo6-SUypaXlTmH6AyrYBZA, launched Jun 2022). Macro/rates focus → strike low. own_network=false. NOT auto-queued; serves as shared_guest edge node into WBD/SLP."}
seeds/sources.river.seed.yaml
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# River Research (river.com) — independent Bitcoin/Lightning research (workflow wxlh2oinb, 2026-06-08).
# own_network=FALSE per Grant: River IS a Ten31 portfolio co, but the stake is IMMATERIAL → not a
# conflict → INDEPENDENT (same materiality rule as Swan). Real Lightning transaction/usage DATA — a
# strong independent leg for the Strike payments thesis (tests "Lightning grew" vs "retail payments at scale").
# kind=filing (text docs). cluster=bitcoin. NOTE: River's report PDFs are largely IMAGE-BASED (no text
# layer) → ingest the HTML landing pages + the text-layer PDFs only; image-PDFs deferred (need OCR).
sources:
- {id: src-river, name: "River Research", kind: filing, cluster: bitcoin, role: IND, cluster_capped_low: true, own_network: false, channel_url: "https://river.com/research/", notes: "Independent (immaterial Ten31 stake). Bitcoin/Lightning usage research incl. annual Lightning Report (real tx data). Image-PDF reports deferred for OCR; HTML + text-PDFs ingested."}
seeds/sources.seed.yaml
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# Source registry seed — handoff §7.3 (companies) + §7.4 (podcasts). VERIFY tickers/feeds at ingestion.
# `notes` flag backtest-era (2022-2023) coverage for §7.1, since some entities didn't exist yet.
# Podcast rss_url is left null where the real feed must still be resolved (some feeds truncate the
# back-catalog — resolution may need the show's archive feed or a YouTube back-catalog).
# Bitcoin-cluster podcasts are cluster_capped_low (§4.5 — most correlated with Ten31's own priors).
sources:
# ============================ COMPANIES (§7.3) ============================
# --- AI compute & hyperscalers → ai_tech ---
- {id: co-nvda, name: NVIDIA, kind: filing, cluster: ai_tech, ticker: NVDA}
- {id: co-googl, name: Alphabet, kind: filing, cluster: ai_tech, ticker: GOOGL}
- {id: co-msft, name: Microsoft, kind: filing, cluster: ai_tech, ticker: MSFT}
- {id: co-amzn, name: Amazon, kind: filing, cluster: ai_tech, ticker: AMZN}
- {id: co-meta, name: Meta, kind: filing, cluster: ai_tech, ticker: META}
- {id: co-avgo, name: Broadcom, kind: filing, cluster: ai_tech, ticker: AVGO}
- {id: co-tsm, name: TSMC, kind: filing, cluster: ai_tech, ticker: TSM, notes: "Foreign filer — files 20-F/6-K, NOT 10-K/10-Q; override forms at ingest"}
- {id: co-crwv, name: CoreWeave, kind: filing, cluster: ai_tech, ticker: CRWV, notes: "IPO 2025 — NO 2022-23 filings (backtest: absent, expected)"}
- {id: co-orcl, name: Oracle, kind: filing, cluster: ai_tech, ticker: ORCL}
# --- Energy & power (binding constraint) → energy ---
- {id: co-ceg, name: Constellation Energy, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: CEG, notes: "Spun from Exelon Feb 2022 — backtest-era coverage from 2022"}
- {id: co-vst, name: Vistra, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: VST}
- {id: co-tln, name: Talen Energy, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: TLN, notes: "Relisted 2024 post-restructuring — thin pre-2024 public filings"}
- {id: co-gev, name: GE Vernova, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: GEV, notes: "Spun from GE Apr 2024 — pre-2024 power data is inside GE filings"}
- {id: co-nee, name: NextEra Energy, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: NEE}
- {id: co-ccj, name: Cameco, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: CCJ, notes: "Foreign filer (Canada) — 40-F/6-K"}
- {id: co-vrt, name: Vertiv, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: VRT}
- {id: co-pwr, name: Quanta Services, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: PWR, notes: "watch — grid/interconnect picks-and-shovels"}
- {id: co-oklo, name: Oklo, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: OKLO, notes: "watch; public 2024"}
- {id: co-smr, name: NuScale Power, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: SMR, notes: "watch"}
# --- Mining <-> AI/HPC (energy-compute seam) → energy ---
- {id: co-corz, name: Core Scientific, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: CORZ, notes: "Ch.11 Dec 2022, relisted Jan 2024 — messy 2022-23 filings"}
- {id: co-iren, name: IREN (Iris Energy), kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: IREN, notes: "IPO Nov 2021 — backtest-era OK; foreign filer 20-F"}
- {id: co-wulf, name: TeraWulf, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: WULF, notes: "Public Dec 2021 — backtest-era OK"}
- {id: co-cifr, name: Cipher Mining, kind: filing, cluster: energy, ticker: CIFR, notes: "Public Aug 2021 — backtest-era OK"}
# --- Debasement <-> bitcoin (treasury/custody) → bitcoin ---
- {id: co-mstr, name: Strategy (MicroStrategy), kind: filing, cluster: bitcoin, ticker: MSTR}
- {id: co-coin, name: Coinbase, kind: filing, cluster: bitcoin, ticker: COIN}
- {id: co-xyz, name: Block, kind: filing, cluster: bitcoin, ticker: XYZ, notes: "Ticker SQ→XYZ (2025) — verify"}
- {id: co-hood, name: Robinhood Markets, kind: filing, cluster: bitcoin, ticker: HOOD, notes: "Crypto/fintech broker — alongside COIN/XYZ. Public Jul 2021, backtest-era OK."}
- {id: co-xxi, name: Twenty One, kind: filing, cluster: bitcoin, ticker: XXI, notes: "Formed 2025 — does not exist in backtest era"}
# --- Major banks (general corpus + Battery incumbent-entry/supply axis). New 'banks' cluster = genuine cross-cluster independence vs bitcoin. ---
- {id: co-jpm, name: JPMorgan Chase, kind: filing, cluster: banks, ticker: JPM}
- {id: co-bac, name: Bank of America, kind: filing, cluster: banks, ticker: BAC}
- {id: co-c, name: Citigroup, kind: filing, cluster: banks, ticker: C}
- {id: co-wfc, name: Wells Fargo, kind: filing, cluster: banks, ticker: WFC}
- {id: co-gs, name: Goldman Sachs, kind: filing, cluster: banks, ticker: GS, notes: "Battery incumbent-entry: executed ONE BTC-collateralized loan Apr-2022 (token, not at-scale)."}
- {id: co-ms, name: Morgan Stanley, kind: filing, cluster: banks, ticker: MS}
# ============================ PODCASTS (§7.4) ============================
# Macro/monetary
- {id: pod-oddlots, name: Odd Lots, kind: podcast, cluster: macro, role: IND, notes: "highest-independence cross-domain"}
- {id: pod-forwardguidance, name: Forward Guidance, kind: podcast, cluster: macro, role: DX}
- {id: pod-macrovoices, name: Macro Voices, kind: podcast, cluster: macro, role: DX, notes: "energy-heavy"}
- {id: pod-grantwilliams, name: The Grant Williams Podcast, kind: podcast, cluster: macro, role: IND}
- {id: pod-monetarymatters, name: Monetary Matters, kind: podcast, cluster: macro, role: DX, notes: "launched ~2024 — thin backtest-era coverage"}
- {id: pod-hiddenforces, name: Hidden Forces, kind: podcast, cluster: macro, role: IND, notes: "highest-independence cross-domain"}
# AI/tech
- {id: pod-dwarkesh, name: Dwarkesh Podcast, kind: podcast, cluster: ai_tech, role: DX, notes: "launched ~2023 — partial backtest-era coverage; highest-independence"}
- {id: pod-nopriors, name: No Priors, kind: podcast, cluster: ai_tech, role: DX, notes: "VC-consensus cluster — discount internal convergence"}
- {id: pod-latentspace, name: Latent Space, kind: podcast, cluster: ai_tech, role: DX, notes: "technical; launched ~2023"}
- {id: pod-cognitiverev, name: Cognitive Revolution, kind: podcast, cluster: ai_tech, role: DX}
- {id: pod-bg2, name: BG2, kind: podcast, cluster: vc_consensus, role: DX, notes: "launched ~2023; mild Ten31 correlation; VC-consensus"}
- {id: pod-a16z, name: a16z Podcast, kind: podcast, cluster: vc_consensus, role: DX, notes: "crypto correlation; VC-consensus"}
# Energy
- {id: pod-catalyst, name: Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann, kind: podcast, cluster: energy, role: DX}
- {id: pod-columbiaenergy, name: Columbia Energy Exchange, kind: podcast, cluster: energy, role: DX}
- {id: pod-doomberg, name: Doomberg, kind: podcast, cluster: energy, role: IND}
# Bitcoin (limited, capped low — §4.5)
- {id: pod-bitcoinlayer, name: The Bitcoin Layer, kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: DX, cluster_capped_low: true, notes: "macro-literate"}
- {id: pod-whatbitcoindid, name: What Bitcoin Did, kind: podcast, cluster: bitcoin, role: none, cluster_capped_low: true}
# Generalist
- {id: pod-allin, name: All-In, kind: podcast, cluster: vc_consensus, role: CB, notes: "consensus barometer"}
- {id: pod-iltb, name: Invest Like the Best, kind: podcast, cluster: generalist, role: DX, notes: "cross-domain"}
- {id: pod-lex, name: Lex Fridman, kind: podcast, cluster: generalist, role: none, notes: "wide reach, variable"}