# Hand-written fan-out for the BATTERY 2022 bitcoin-as-collateral-credit thesis (D1) — two-sided test.
# The instructive split: DEMAND derivatives expected RISING (confirming), SUPPLY derivatives expected
# FLAT (the disconfirmation / timing-early signal the two-sided scorer should surface).
parent_conviction_id: BATTERY2022
nodes:
  - node_id: BATTERY-demand-borrower-appetite
    distance_from_edge: in_mandate
    derivative_proposition: "Borrower demand for bitcoin-collateralized credit is rising (new products, origination growth, fund formations)."
  - node_id: BATTERY-institutional-supply
    distance_from_edge: in_mandate
    derivative_proposition: "Named institutional capital PROVIDERS have actually DEPLOYED significant dollars (not merely announced or made-available) to FUND third-party bitcoin-collateralized loans at scale. (Capital-provider side only — a firm posting bitcoin as collateral to RECEIVE a loan is borrower-side demand, not supply; an announced/planned program is not deployed capital.)"
  - node_id: BATTERY-incumbent-entry
    distance_from_edge: in_mandate
    derivative_proposition: "A major traditional financial institution has entered bitcoin-collateralized lending (D1's explicit milestone)."
  - node_id: BATTERY-custody-policy-enablement
    distance_from_edge: one_hop
    derivative_proposition: "Regulatory and custody developments (SAB-121 repeal, bank custody clearance) are enabling institutional bitcoin credit."