# PRE-REGISTERED resolution criteria for the §7.1 backtest confusion matrix (DESIGN_v2 §1.1).
# Committed BEFORE pulling any price data. Uniform rule for ALL derivatives:
#   - equal-weight, start-normalized basket index over 2023-01-01 .. 2025-06-30
#   - "confirmed real" iff index first hits >= +40% vs 2023-01 baseline on date D AND still >= +25% at D+90d
#   - repricing_date = D
# Baskets are best-judgment liquid proxies for each derivative's real-world exposure, drawn from the
# §7.3 source universe. They are NOT tuned to outcomes. Grant/dev may revise the baskets — but doing so
# is a logged pre-registration change (DESIGN_v2 §4), not a quiet tune.
window: {start: "2023-01-01", end: "2025-06-30"}
rule: {threshold_pct: 40, hold_pct: 25, hold_days: 90}
baskets:
  K2023:                     [CEG, VST, TLN, NEE, GEV, VRT, PWR, CCJ]   # root: broad power-infra build
  K2023-picks-and-shovels:   [CEG, VST, TLN, NEE, GEV, VRT, PWR, CCJ]   # broad power-infra basket
  K2023-uranium:             [CCJ]                                       # Cameco = the liquid uranium proxy in-corpus
  K2023-nuclear:             [CEG, TLN, VST]                             # nuclear-heavy IPPs
  K2023-utilities-repriced:  [CEG, VST, NEE, TLN]                        # IPPs / utilities with firm generation
  K2023-grid-interconnect:   [PWR, GEV]                                  # grid build / interconnection (Quanta, GE Vernova)
  K2023-transformers:        [GEV, VRT]                                  # electrical equipment
  K2023-gas-turbines:        [GEV]                                       # GE Vernova gas turbines
  K2023-cooling:             [VRT]                                       # Vertiv = data-center thermal/cooling proxy