# Backtest seed — handoff §7.1 (the HEADLINE pilot validation, run BEFORE the forward pilot).
#
# Seed ONLY the ~2023 Kirkwood conviction, run the pipeline over a period-correct ~2023 corpus, and
# check whether the under-acted-conviction signal surfaces the derivative:
#   "size up the power-infrastructure picks-and-shovels of the buildout"
# (grid interconnect, transformers, substations, cooling, gas turbines, nuclear, uranium, public
#  picks-and-shovels). A clear yes/no on that derivative is the strongest validation the system
#  does the job Ten31 actually needs (§1.1, §7.1).
#
# CRITICAL (§6.6 look-ahead guard): consensus, embeddings, and corroboration must be computed
# AS-OF the log date — never with knowledge that the theme was real in absolute terms.

convictions:
  - id: K2023
    seam: energy_compute
    conviction_level: high
    current_exposure: lt2          # the historical reality: seed conviction held, derivatives under-acted
    exposure_note: "Seed conviction held in ~2023; derivative branches NOT systematically sized into — the failure §1.1 exists to prevent."
    thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin mining and AI are both 'distributed compute'; interruptible/flexible load is the differentiator; the world will need to ~1000x rack space over the decade, so power becomes the binding constraint."
    team_conviction_note: "Jonathan Kirkwood, publicly articulated ~2023. Root call correct and early; the MISS was the derivative tree, not the prediction."
    disconfirming_signal: "Compute demand growth stalls; power clears without becoming the binding constraint."