# Hand-written fan-out for the §7.1 backtest (build-order step 4). These are the 2nd/3rd-order
# derivatives the frontier WOULD have generated from the 2023 Kirkwood conviction (K2023). Hand-writing
# them for v1 removes the frontier dependency from the FIRST backtest and isolates the real question:
# does the SCORING surface the derivative once it exists? (The §1.1 derivative tree, verbatim intent.)
parent_conviction_id: K2023
nodes:
  - node_id: K2023-grid-interconnect
    derivative_proposition: "Electrical grid interconnection capacity becomes the gating constraint on new data-center and compute load; interconnect queue times and grid upgrade costs blow out."
  - node_id: K2023-transformers
    derivative_proposition: "Demand for large power transformers and electrical equipment outstrips supply; lead times extend dramatically and pricing rises."
  - node_id: K2023-nuclear
    derivative_proposition: "Nuclear power — existing plants, long-term PPAs, SMRs — is repriced upward as firm clean baseload to power AI data centers."
  - node_id: K2023-gas-turbines
    derivative_proposition: "Natural-gas turbines and on-site/behind-the-meter generation see surging demand to power data centers where the grid cannot deliver in time."
  - node_id: K2023-cooling
    derivative_proposition: "Data-center cooling and thermal management (liquid cooling) demand accelerates as compute power density rises."
  - node_id: K2023-uranium
    derivative_proposition: "Uranium and nuclear-fuel supply tightens as nuclear demand to power compute rises."
  - node_id: K2023-utilities-repriced
    derivative_proposition: "Independent power producers and utilities with firm generation are repriced upward as data-center electricity demand surges."
  - node_id: K2023-picks-and-shovels
    derivative_proposition: "The public picks-and-shovels of the AI power buildout — power infrastructure, equipment, contracts, and generation serving data centers — are systematically under-priced and should be sized up."