Keysat
27 lines
2.4 KiB
YAML
27 lines
2.4 KiB
YAML
# PRE-REGISTERED resolution — BATTERY 2022 bitcoin-as-collateral-credit thesis (D1). Two-sided.
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# DESIGN_v2.1 condition 2: hostile-checker-proof — named institutions, dollar figures, dated events.
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# Instrument = the two-sided net-corroboration (affirms − denies) trajectory per derivative
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# (condition 3): the engine should show DEMAND rising while SUPPLY stays flat — the "half-confirmed,
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# load-bearing half not moving" disconfirmation, NOT clear the supply derivatives early.
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thesis: "Bitcoin-as-collateral credit goes mainstream; institutional/incumbent capital funds it at scale within 24-36 months (>=1 major institution enters)."
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window: {start: "2022-01-01", end: "2024-12-31"}
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metric_type: adoption_evidence
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criteria:
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BATTERY-demand-borrower-appetite:
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expected: rising
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confirm_iff: ">=3 NAMED active BTC-collateralized credit products/originators operating by 2024-12-31 (e.g. Unchained, Ledn, Strike lending, Battery, Salt, debifi) — countable, datable."
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checks: ["count of named BTC-collateralized lenders active 2024 with origination", "any public origination-volume figures"]
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BATTERY-institutional-supply:
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expected: flat
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confirm_iff: "A NAMED institution/bank committed a stated DOLLAR figure of lending capital to BTC-collateralized credit AT SCALE (>$100M) by 2024-12-31."
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checks: ["named institutional capital provider + committed $ to BTC-collateralized lending (yes/no + figure)", "BTC-credit fund AUM from institutional LPs — figure"]
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BATTERY-incumbent-entry:
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expected: not_yet
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confirm_iff: "A top-50 (by assets) traditional bank/financial institution PUBLICLY entered BTC-collateralized lending by 2024-12-31 (named institution + dated announcement)."
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checks: ["named top-50 bank offering/funding BTC-collateralized loans — yes/no + date"]
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BATTERY-custody-policy-enablement:
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expected: late_edge
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confirm_iff: "SAB-121 repealed/rescinded AND bank BTC-custody cleared WITHIN window (<=2024-12-31)."
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checks: ["SAB-121 status + exact date (pre-registered fact: issued 2022-03-31; rescinded by SAB-122 on 2025-01-23 — JUST PAST the window, so this resolves 'arrived at the edge, not in window')"]
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prior_expectation: "EARLY on the SUPPLY axis: demand rose (multiple named lenders), institutional supply stalled through 2024 (no named top-50 incumbent at scale), the policy catalyst (SAB-121 repeal) landed Jan 2025 — just past window. The two-sided scorer should surface the supply-side DISCONFIRMATION."
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