ten31-signal-engine/seeds/conviction_log.seed.yaml

# Conviction log seed — handoff §3.1. HUMAN-OWNED: Grant edits this file; `seed-convictions` upserts it.
#
# Structural rule (§3.1): `thematic_proposition` is the TRACKABLE half the corpus can corroborate and
# that gets fanned out and scored. `team_conviction_note` is context ONLY — the engine must never
# present theme corroboration as validation of the team bet beneath it.
#
# `current_exposure` is a coarse NAV band (operator decision): none | lt2 | 2to10 | gt10 | unset.
# The v1 levels below are the §3.1 draft; exposure is left `unset` with the original prose preserved in
# `exposure_note` — Grant to FINALIZE the NAV bands (§12 governance item).

convictions:
  # ---------- ROOT (the forcing function) ----------
  - id: R1
    seam: root
    conviction_level: high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "pervasive"
    thematic_proposition: "Sovereign debt keeps being monetized not repaid; fiat debasement persists; bitcoin is adopted as the neutral non-debasable reserve capital migrates to."
    disconfirming_signal: "Durable fiscal surpluses + falling debt/GDP + no reserve diversification."

  - id: R2
    seam: root
    conviction_level: high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "thesis-wide"
    thematic_proposition: "AI drives the marginal cost of the reproducible toward zero; value accrues to the scarce/verifiable; bitcoin gains relative share as the 'strongest horse'; pricing-in-bitcoin grows."
    disconfirming_signal: "Scarce/verifiable assets earn no premium as AI content saturates."

  - id: R3
    seam: root
    conviction_level: med-high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "pervasive (esp. custody/credit names)"
    thematic_proposition: "Strategic bitcoin reserves (US/nation-states), SAB-121 repeal enabling bank custody, and ETF/treasury inflows create a price-inelastic bid and invert allocator career risk."
    disconfirming_signal: "Reserve plans stall or reverse; banks stay out; policy turns adversarial."

  # ---------- ENERGY <-> COMPUTE ----------
  - id: E1
    seam: energy_compute
    conviction_level: high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "MED-HIGH (Giga, Satoshi Energy)"
    thematic_proposition: "Power, not chips, is the binding constraint on AI buildout through ~2027-28; the seam picks-and-shovels are under-priced."
    team_conviction_note: "Giga, Satoshi Energy."
    disconfirming_signal: "Chips/capital remain the bottleneck; interconnect clears fast."

  - id: E2
    seam: energy_compute
    conviction_level: high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "MED (Giga power-market optimization, Satoshi)"
    thematic_proposition: "The miner flexible-load playbook (demand response, behind-the-meter) goes mainstream for AI data centers and grids; mining fluency is a transferable underwriting edge."
    disconfirming_signal: "Data centers reject flexible load; the fluency proves non-transferable."

  - id: E3
    seam: energy_compute
    conviction_level: med
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "Giga (straddle) vs Upstream (mining-only)"
    thematic_proposition: "Mining-native operators that pivot into / straddle AI/HPC capture the convergence; mining-only underperforms."
    team_conviction_note: "Deliberately low-conviction seed — engine should help resolve."
    disconfirming_signal: "Pure-play mining outperforms straddlers."

  # ---------- DEBASEMENT <-> BITCOIN ----------
  - id: D1
    seam: debasement_bitcoin
    conviction_level: high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "HIGH (Strike; Battery, Unchained, debifi, AnchorWatch)"
    thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin-as-collateral goes mainstream: new BTC-collateralized credit products proliferate, spreads compress, and >=1 major traditional institution enters within 24-36 months. As products mature, holders borrow rather than sell, shrinking marginal supply."
    disconfirming_signal: "Stays a crypto-native niche; no incumbent entry; spreads hold."

  - id: D2
    seam: debasement_bitcoin
    conviction_level: high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "portfolio-wide"
    thematic_proposition: "Incumbents buy, not build: legacy finance/tech acquires bitcoin-natives rather than building in-house (the published exit thesis)."
    disconfirming_signal: "Incumbents build in-house or via crypto-generalists; no strategic M&A."

  - id: D3
    seam: debasement_bitcoin
    conviction_level: med-high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "enablers (Fold, AnchorWatch, Giga/Upstream)"
    thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin commercialization of legacy operating businesses: compressed-multiple firms become structurally advantaged when rearchitected around bitcoin (treasury, settlement, self-hosted infra, stranded energy)."
    disconfirming_signal: "Legacy adoption stalls; no margin advantage."

  - id: D4
    seam: debasement_bitcoin
    conviction_level: high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "HIGH (largest position, ~40%)"
    thematic_proposition: "Strike re-rates as a bitcoin bank, not payments: market values it as exchange + major retail BTC-collateralized lender + global access (70+ jurisdictions), not legacy payments."
    team_conviction_note: "Team conviction high; tracked SEPARATELY from the thematic re-rating."
    disconfirming_signal: "Stays valued/stuck as payments; lending/exchange don't scale."

  # ---------- AI <-> DATA-OWNERSHIP (PRIME under-acted-conviction target) ----------
  - id: A1
    seam: ai_data_ownership
    conviction_level: high
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "LOW (Start9, OpenSecret/Maple, maybe Primal; small checks)"
    thematic_proposition: "Owned judgment is the last margin: AI commoditizes competence and profit on undifferentiated output erodes toward zero, so durable margin needs owned/protected proprietary data + judgment; demand grows for sovereign-root + confidential-inference infra."
    disconfirming_signal: "Enterprises cede data/inference with no margin penalty."

  - id: A2
    seam: ai_data_ownership
    conviction_level: med
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "LOW"
    thematic_proposition: "The segment that can't cede (regulated, IP-sensitive, adversarial jurisdictions) adopts owned infra + confidential inference even as the majority cedes to convenience."
    disconfirming_signal: "Even the IP-sensitive segment fully cedes."

  - id: A3
    seam: ai_data_ownership
    conviction_level: low
    current_exposure: unset
    exposure_note: "LOW"
    thematic_proposition: "Start9 broadens beyond the bitcoiner niche (SaaS -> on-prem reversion)."
    team_conviction_note: "Explicitly uncertain — team high, theme unproven ('maybe drinking our own koolaid, tbd'). Low-conviction seed the engine should help resolve."
    disconfirming_signal: "Stays bitcoiner-niche."

  # ---------- MONITORED THESIS-BREAKERS (engine must surface these AGAINST the thesis, §5.7) ----------
  - id: B1
    seam: root
    is_thesis_breaker: true
    conviction_level: low
    current_exposure: unset
    thematic_proposition: "Quantum acceleration compresses CRQC timelines inside NIST 2035 before mitigations deploy (bitcoin-leg breaker)."
    disconfirming_signal: "n/a — this is a breaker the engine monitors FOR, not against."

  - id: B2
    seam: energy_compute
    is_thesis_breaker: true
    conviction_level: low
    current_exposure: unset
    thematic_proposition: "AI permanently outbids mining for power, pushing mining to only truly-stranded margin (energy-leg breaker)."
    disconfirming_signal: "n/a — breaker the engine monitors FOR."

  - id: B3
    seam: debasement_bitcoin
    is_thesis_breaker: true
    conviction_level: low
    current_exposure: unset
    thematic_proposition: "Stablecoins/CBDCs capture the neutral-reserve role, or bitcoin fails as the exit (tests the complementary-stablecoin view)."
    disconfirming_signal: "n/a — breaker the engine monitors FOR."