Keysat
24 lines
2.7 KiB
YAML
24 lines
2.7 KiB
YAML
# ADVERSARIAL failed-conviction cases (DESIGN_v2 §1.4) — the NEGATIVES the eval was missing.
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# Both are convictions Ten31 ACTUALLY held where the FALSIFIABLE THESIS mis-fired (on mechanism /
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# timing) even though Ten31 remains bullish on the companies. That is the most honest kind of negative
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# — and the kind we are most tempted to grade leniently, which is why the resolution criteria are
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# pre-registered (seeds/resolution.*.yaml) before any outcome-labeling. Let the criteria be ugly.
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convictions:
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- id: STRIKE2022
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seam: debasement_bitcoin
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conviction_level: high
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current_exposure: lt2 # TEST parameterization (so the scorer can fire) — NOT Strike's real exposure (~40% of book)
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exposure_note: "test param; real Strike exposure is HIGH (largest position). The 2022 PAYMENTS thesis is the falsifiable negative."
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thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin + the Lightning network becomes a retail payments network that materially disrupts the card rails (Visa/Mastercard/Amex); Lightning retail acceptance and merchant-payment volume scale."
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team_conviction_note: "Ten31 led Strike's Series B (2022) on this thesis; STILL high conviction in Strike the company. But the 2022 payments-network thesis FAILED — Strike succeeded by becoming a bitcoin financial-services platform (exchange + BTC-collateralized lending), which the memo barely names. The failed thesis was NARRATIVE-driven (the whole bitcoin-podcast cluster told 'Lightning eats retail payments' loudly in 2022) — the exact single-cluster, reflexive, talk-our-own-book corroboration the relaxed gate is most likely to wave through."
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disconfirming_signal: "Retail Lightning payments fail to materialize at scale; card-network volumes show no erosion; Strike's growth comes from exchange/lending not merchant payments."
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- id: BATTERY2022
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seam: debasement_bitcoin
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conviction_level: high
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current_exposure: lt2
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exposure_note: "Battery Finance position"
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thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin-as-collateral credit goes mainstream: institutional/incumbent capital funds bitcoin-collateralized lending at scale within 24-36 months; >=1 major traditional institution enters. (= conviction D1 + R3.)"
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team_conviction_note: "Ten31 invested in Battery Finance (2022); STILL high conviction. The thesis was RIGHT on the demand side (borrower appetite for BTC-collateralized credit) and EARLY/wrong on the SUPPLY side (Battery could not raise institutional lending capital at scale). A direct, datable instance of D1/R3 not arriving on schedule — the instructive two-sided test (demand rising, supply flat)."
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disconfirming_signal: "Institutional/bank capital for BTC-collateralized credit stays scarce; no major incumbent entry; the supply side stalls while demand rises."
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