Keysat
23 lines
2.0 KiB
YAML
23 lines
2.0 KiB
YAML
# Hand-written fan-out for the §7.1 backtest (build-order step 4). These are the 2nd/3rd-order
|
|
# derivatives the frontier WOULD have generated from the 2023 Kirkwood conviction (K2023). Hand-writing
|
|
# them for v1 removes the frontier dependency from the FIRST backtest and isolates the real question:
|
|
# does the SCORING surface the derivative once it exists? (The §1.1 derivative tree, verbatim intent.)
|
|
parent_conviction_id: K2023
|
|
nodes:
|
|
- node_id: K2023-grid-interconnect
|
|
derivative_proposition: "Electrical grid interconnection capacity becomes the gating constraint on new data-center and compute load; interconnect queue times and grid upgrade costs blow out."
|
|
- node_id: K2023-transformers
|
|
derivative_proposition: "Demand for large power transformers and electrical equipment outstrips supply; lead times extend dramatically and pricing rises."
|
|
- node_id: K2023-nuclear
|
|
derivative_proposition: "Nuclear power — existing plants, long-term PPAs, SMRs — is repriced upward as firm clean baseload to power AI data centers."
|
|
- node_id: K2023-gas-turbines
|
|
derivative_proposition: "Natural-gas turbines and on-site/behind-the-meter generation see surging demand to power data centers where the grid cannot deliver in time."
|
|
- node_id: K2023-cooling
|
|
derivative_proposition: "Data-center cooling and thermal management (liquid cooling) demand accelerates as compute power density rises."
|
|
- node_id: K2023-uranium
|
|
derivative_proposition: "Uranium and nuclear-fuel supply tightens as nuclear demand to power compute rises."
|
|
- node_id: K2023-utilities-repriced
|
|
derivative_proposition: "Independent power producers and utilities with firm generation are repriced upward as data-center electricity demand surges."
|
|
- node_id: K2023-picks-and-shovels
|
|
derivative_proposition: "The public picks-and-shovels of the AI power buildout — power infrastructure, equipment, contracts, and generation serving data centers — are systematically under-priced and should be sized up."
|