ten31-signal-engine/ROADMAP.md

Ten31 Signal Engine — ROADMAP

Longer-term backlog (the near-term snapshot lives in AGENTS.md → Current state). Rationale and the falsification hypotheses (H1–H6) are in DESIGN_v2.md.

Scoring brain — the real validation

• Frontier-fan-out test (H6) — the untested half, = the actual §1.1 miss. Seed a 2023 conviction, give the model 2023-ONLY context, let it PROPOSE the derivatives, then score that tree's precision/ recall against what actually repriced. The §7.1 backtest hand-wrote the tree (hindsight leakage); this is the part that matters and isn't tested yet.
• Estimator rework (H4). Replace the fragile 2nd-derivative acceleration with a persistence / level-crossing test on the corroboration arrival rate, with per-source-type window cadence.
• Build the real resolver. signals/resolver.py is a stub. Settle the lead-time-vs-actual-repricing debate empirically against structured outcomes (price, FERC interconnection queue, PPAs, capex, policy).
• Extend claim-type weighting to the §7.1 power-infra tree (it currently only gates the bitcoin adversarial cases; descriptive-deployed > predictive-intent should apply everywhere).
• Job A scorers (emergence / stance / intersection) for the forward Discovery pilot.
• MD&A targeting for filings — extract Item 7, not front-matter boilerplate.

Corpus & independence

• Complete the Strike reflexivity demonstration (deferred 2026-06-16). The STRIKE2022 adversarial test is a conditional pass: the engine refuses the false positive via the capped single-bitcoin-cluster guard (net=+0.25 ≪ EISC_FLOOR=2.0), but the own_network-drop mechanism (live quiet < test fires) is unexercised because RHR (80) / CD (77) / Bitcoin.Review (12) were deferred at transcription on 2026-06-08 (own_net=0, live==test). To finish: un-defer + transcribe the RHR/CD 2022–23 Lightning-retail window → run-extract → re-run two-sided --conviction STRIKE2022 --modes live,test; PASS = test fires while live stays quiet. Costs constrained audio-GPU time, hence deferred.
• Confirm materiality of the remaining own_network-flagged sources with Grant: Unchained, Debifi, Coinkite (Bitcoin.Review). Immaterial → flip to independent (the River/Swan precedent).
• BTC Sessions (Ben Perrin) — strongest still-missing independent high-Strike merchant/wallet-adoption show; resolve feed + ingest (a task chip exists for it).
• River image-PDF reports — the 2022 Lightning report + 2025/2026 adoption reports have no text layer; add an OCR / page-rasterization+vision path to ingest them.
• Broad, lineage-aware corpus expansion toward independent vantage points (not more correlated sell-side / trade-press voices).

Infrastructure & ops

• Add an automated test suite (none today) — start with the scoring primitives (EISC, two_sided, as-of harness) and the queue.
• Episode-pipelining in transcribe_worker — download/chunk the next episode while transcribing the current one, to close the inter-episode GPU idle gap (the per-chunk 2-in-flight path is already done).
• Corpus-management UI — add to the corpus over time and see the full corpus selection.
• Expose pipeline tunables in the UI (with the UI topic). Extraction chunk size + per-doc chunk cap, audio chunk length, audio concurrency, etc. are currently hardcoded defaults (now also CLI flags on run-extract: --chunk-chars, --max-chunks). Surface them in the UI so they're visible/adjustable, not black-box assumptions we forget about. Tie to the corpus-management UI work.
• Daily activity digest email. A daily-digest CLI command rendering a "last 24h" report — corpus throughput (documents.ingested_at/processed_at, claims.extracted_at by kind/cluster), queue health (backfill.queue.stats() — surface failed/stuck jobs), Qdrant index lag, infra (spark-status), and a key-findings section (new ledger rows by date_logged; candidate_scores that cleared_evidence_bar). All timestamps already default to datetime('now'), so the window is a one-liner; the activity half is buildable today. Deliver via SMTP (stdlib smtplib+email, no new dep, configurable per service — SMTP_HOST/PORT/USER/PASS, DIGEST_TO); ship a --stdout dry-run mode; schedule via launchd on the Mac. Two dependencies: (1) the findings section is only real once the Job A discovery scorers run on a schedule — until then it's stubbed/echoes manual adversarial runs; (2) sovereignty (guardrail #7) — SMTP through your own/ten31 server keeps it inside the boundary; do NOT route through a third-party email API if findings ever carry Battery/Strike or positioning substance.
• Forward live operation — the only real test: scoring un-pre-selected signals as they arrive, with the dual-evaluation ledger as arbiter.

Packaging / deploy

• Start9 s9pk packaging. Build with make x86 then make install → immense-voyage.local. Bump the package version in the manifest BEFORE building (Start9 0.4.x won't recognize an un-bumped rebuild). See the placement standard for infra conventions.