Keysat
0cba2626d3
Full STRIKE2022 pipeline ran clean: 63 filing extracts (3,330 claims, 56,008 total), embed-claims indexed all into Qdrant, two-sided live/test. Engine refuses the false positive (net=+0.25, capped single bitcoin cluster, far below the 2.0 firing bar) but the own_network-drop reflexivity demo is unexercised (own_net=0, live==test) because RHR/CD/Bitcoin.Review were deferred at transcription 2026-06-08. Accepted as a conditional pass; un-defer follow-up tracked in ROADMAP.
54 lines
4.0 KiB
Markdown
54 lines
4.0 KiB
Markdown
# Ten31 Signal Engine — ROADMAP
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Longer-term backlog (the near-term snapshot lives in `AGENTS.md` → Current state). Rationale and the
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falsification hypotheses (H1–H6) are in `DESIGN_v2.md`.
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## Scoring brain — the real validation
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- **Frontier-fan-out test (H6) — the untested half, = the actual §1.1 miss.** Seed a 2023 conviction,
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give the model 2023-ONLY context, let it PROPOSE the derivatives, then score that tree's precision/
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recall against what actually repriced. The §7.1 backtest hand-wrote the tree (hindsight leakage); this
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is the part that matters and isn't tested yet.
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- **Estimator rework (H4).** Replace the fragile 2nd-derivative *acceleration* with a persistence /
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level-crossing test on the corroboration arrival rate, with per-source-type window cadence.
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- **Build the real resolver.** `signals/resolver.py` is a stub. Settle the lead-time-vs-actual-repricing
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debate empirically against structured outcomes (price, FERC interconnection queue, PPAs, capex, policy).
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- **Extend claim-type weighting to the §7.1 power-infra tree** (it currently only gates the bitcoin
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adversarial cases; descriptive-deployed > predictive-intent should apply everywhere).
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- **Job A scorers** (emergence / stance / intersection) for the forward Discovery pilot.
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- **MD&A targeting** for filings — extract Item 7, not front-matter boilerplate.
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## Corpus & independence
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- **Complete the Strike reflexivity demonstration (deferred 2026-06-16).** The STRIKE2022 adversarial test
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is a *conditional* pass: the engine refuses the false positive via the capped single-bitcoin-cluster
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guard (`net=+0.25` ≪ `EISC_FLOOR=2.0`), but the own_network-drop mechanism (live quiet < test fires) is
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unexercised because RHR (80) / CD (77) / Bitcoin.Review (12) were deferred at transcription on 2026-06-08
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(`own_net=0`, live==test). To finish: un-defer + transcribe the **RHR/CD 2022–23 Lightning-retail window**
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→ `run-extract` → re-run `two-sided --conviction STRIKE2022 --modes live,test`; PASS = test fires while
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live stays quiet. Costs constrained audio-GPU time, hence deferred.
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- **Confirm materiality** of the remaining `own_network`-flagged sources with Grant: Unchained, Debifi,
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Coinkite (Bitcoin.Review). Immaterial → flip to independent (the River/Swan precedent).
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- **BTC Sessions (Ben Perrin)** — strongest still-missing independent high-Strike merchant/wallet-adoption
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show; resolve feed + ingest (a task chip exists for it).
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- **River image-PDF reports** — the 2022 Lightning report + 2025/2026 adoption reports have no text layer;
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add an OCR / page-rasterization+vision path to ingest them.
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- Broad, **lineage-aware** corpus expansion toward independent vantage points (not more correlated
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sell-side / trade-press voices).
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## Infrastructure & ops
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- **Add an automated test suite** (none today) — start with the scoring primitives (EISC, two_sided,
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as-of harness) and the queue.
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- **Episode-pipelining** in `transcribe_worker` — download/chunk the next episode while transcribing the
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current one, to close the inter-episode GPU idle gap (the per-chunk 2-in-flight path is already done).
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- **Corpus-management UI** — add to the corpus over time and see the full corpus selection.
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- **Expose pipeline tunables in the UI (with the UI topic).** Extraction chunk size + per-doc chunk cap,
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audio chunk length, audio concurrency, etc. are currently hardcoded defaults (now also CLI flags on
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`run-extract`: `--chunk-chars`, `--max-chunks`). Surface them in the UI so they're visible/adjustable,
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not black-box assumptions we forget about. Tie to the corpus-management UI work.
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- **Forward live operation** — the only real test: scoring un-pre-selected signals as they arrive, with
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the dual-evaluation ledger as arbiter.
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## Packaging / deploy
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- **Start9 `s9pk` packaging.** Build with `make x86` then `make install` → `immense-voyage.local`.
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Bump the package version in the manifest BEFORE building (Start9 0.4.x won't recognize an un-bumped
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rebuild). See the placement standard for infra conventions.
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