Keysat
23 lines
2.5 KiB
YAML
23 lines
2.5 KiB
YAML
# PRE-REGISTERED resolution — STRIKE 2022 payments-network thesis (adversarial NEGATIVE).
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# DESIGN_v2.1 condition 2: indicators must survive a HOSTILE checker — named, countable, datable
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# things a disinterested third party could look up and get the SAME yes/no. No "material scale" hand-waving.
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# Committed before evidence-gathering. The instrument for the engine output is NOT runway — it is the
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# two-sided net-corroboration (affirms − denies) trajectory (DESIGN_v2.1 condition 3): a PASS for Strike
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# looks like the engine STAYING QUIET (no clear) or the disconfirming side accumulating, NOT clearing early.
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thesis: "Bitcoin/Lightning becomes a retail payments network that materially disrupts the card rails."
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window: {start: "2022-01-01", end: "2024-12-31"}
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metric_type: adoption_evidence
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criteria:
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STRIKE-merchant-lightning-integration:
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# The 2022 memo promised specific integrations. Datable: did each ship Lightning RETAIL acceptance
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# at general availability (not a pilot/press release) by 2024-12-31? Three named yes/no checks.
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confirm_iff: ">=2 of {NCR/Aloha PoS, Shopify, Blackhawk Network} shipped Lightning retail payment acceptance at GENERAL AVAILABILITY with sustained merchant usage by 2024-12-31."
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checks: ["NCR (now NCR Voyix/Aloha) Lightning retail acceptance GA? yes/no", "Shopify native Lightning checkout GA at scale? yes/no", "Blackhawk Network Lightning retail acceptance GA? yes/no"]
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STRIKE-lightning-retail-acceptance:
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confirm_iff: "A NAMED, citable figure shows Lightning-settled RETAIL payment volume > $1B/year by 2024, OR Strike publicly reports merchant-acceptance/payments as a material (>10% of revenue) line."
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checks: ["Lightning Network public retail payment-volume estimate (bitcoinvisuals / River Lightning report) — figure + date", "Strike public revenue/product mix disclosure — merchant payments a named line? yes/no"]
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STRIKE-card-rail-disruption:
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confirm_iff: "Any Visa/Mastercard 10-K/earnings disclosure attributing SUSTAINED US retail payment-volume erosion to bitcoin/Lightning by 2024-12-31."
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checks: ["Visa FY22-24 10-K: bitcoin/Lightning named as a volume-erosion factor? yes/no", "Mastercard FY22-24 10-K: same? yes/no"]
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prior_expectation: "FAILED. Strike's growth came from exchange + BTC-collateralized lending, not retail payments. The PRECISION TEST: if the engine CLEARS any of these on bitcoin-cluster (own_network-tagged) chatter while the named checks are NO, that is the reflexive false positive the discipline must catch."
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