Keysat
22 lines
1.6 KiB
YAML
22 lines
1.6 KiB
YAML
# Backtest seed — handoff §7.1 (the HEADLINE pilot validation, run BEFORE the forward pilot).
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#
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# Seed ONLY the ~2023 Kirkwood conviction, run the pipeline over a period-correct ~2023 corpus, and
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# check whether the under-acted-conviction signal surfaces the derivative:
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# "size up the power-infrastructure picks-and-shovels of the buildout"
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# (grid interconnect, transformers, substations, cooling, gas turbines, nuclear, uranium, public
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# picks-and-shovels). A clear yes/no on that derivative is the strongest validation the system
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# does the job Ten31 actually needs (§1.1, §7.1).
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#
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# CRITICAL (§6.6 look-ahead guard): consensus, embeddings, and corroboration must be computed
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# AS-OF the log date — never with knowledge that the theme was real in absolute terms.
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convictions:
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- id: K2023
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seam: energy_compute
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conviction_level: high
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current_exposure: lt2 # the historical reality: seed conviction held, derivatives under-acted
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exposure_note: "Seed conviction held in ~2023; derivative branches NOT systematically sized into — the failure §1.1 exists to prevent."
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thematic_proposition: "Bitcoin mining and AI are both 'distributed compute'; interruptible/flexible load is the differentiator; the world will need to ~1000x rack space over the decade, so power becomes the binding constraint."
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team_conviction_note: "Jonathan Kirkwood, publicly articulated ~2023. Root call correct and early; the MISS was the derivative tree, not the prediction."
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disconfirming_signal: "Compute demand growth stalls; power clears without becoming the binding constraint."
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