Keysat
54 lines
2.3 KiB
Python
54 lines
2.3 KiB
Python
"""Temporal windows + windowed independence (the single temporal layer, §4.4).
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28-day non-overlapping windows anchored at as_of (W0 ends at as_of, then back). Non-overlapping
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avoids autocorrelation faking significance. The signal is the discrete 2nd derivative of the
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INDEPENDENCE-WEIGHTED flow (EISC per window), never the raw count — so a topic that "accelerates"
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only because one show booked the same guest three times has flat N(W).
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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from .independence import eisc_for
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WINDOW_DAYS = 28
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N_WINDOWS = 3
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def _d(s: str) -> datetime:
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return datetime.strptime(s[:10], "%Y-%m-%d")
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def window_bounds(as_of: str, *, n: int = N_WINDOWS, days: int = WINDOW_DAYS) -> list[tuple[int, str, str]]:
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"""Returns [(idx, start_iso, end_iso)] with W0 ending at as_of, extending backward only."""
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end = _d(as_of)
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out = []
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for idx in range(n):
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w_end = end - timedelta(days=idx * days)
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w_start = end - timedelta(days=(idx + 1) * days)
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out.append((idx, w_start.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), w_end.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")))
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return out
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def windowed_independence(conn, rows: list[tuple], as_of: str, *, n: int = N_WINDOWS,
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days: int = WINDOW_DAYS) -> dict:
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"""rows: [(date_iso, source_id)]. For each window compute raw count + EISC_adj of its sources.
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Returns {counts:[c0..], eisc:[N0..], k_eff:[...], acceleration, eisc0, sources0}.
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acceleration = N0 - 2*N1 + N2 (independence-weighted 2nd derivative)."""
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bounds = window_bounds(as_of, n=n, days=days)
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counts, eiscs, keffs, src_sets = [], [], [], []
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for _idx, start, end in bounds:
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win = [r for r in rows if r[0] and start < r[0][:10] <= end]
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srcs = list({r[1] for r in win})
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e = eisc_for(conn, srcs) if srcs else {"eisc_adj": 0.0, "k_eff": 0}
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counts.append(len(win))
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eiscs.append(e["eisc_adj"])
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keffs.append(e["k_eff"])
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src_sets.append(srcs)
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accel = eiscs[0] - 2 * eiscs[1] + eiscs[2] if n >= 3 else 0.0
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return {
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"counts": counts, "eisc": [round(x, 3) for x in eiscs], "k_eff": keffs,
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"acceleration": round(accel, 3), "eisc0": round(eiscs[0], 3), "k_eff0": keffs[0],
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"sources0": src_sets[0], "n_total": sum(counts),
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}
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