ten31-signal-engine/ROADMAP.md

# Ten31 Signal Engine — ROADMAP

Longer-term backlog (the near-term snapshot lives in `AGENTS.md` → Current state). Rationale and the
falsification hypotheses (H1–H6) are in `DESIGN_v2.md`.

## Scoring brain — the real validation
- **Frontier-fan-out test (H6) — the untested half, = the actual §1.1 miss.** Seed a 2023 conviction,
  give the model 2023-ONLY context, let it PROPOSE the derivatives, then score that tree's precision/
  recall against what actually repriced. The §7.1 backtest hand-wrote the tree (hindsight leakage); this
  is the part that matters and isn't tested yet.
- **Estimator rework (H4).** Replace the fragile 2nd-derivative *acceleration* with a persistence /
  level-crossing test on the corroboration arrival rate, with per-source-type window cadence.
- **Build the real resolver.** `signals/resolver.py` is a stub. Settle the lead-time-vs-actual-repricing
  debate empirically against structured outcomes (price, FERC interconnection queue, PPAs, capex, policy).
- **Extend claim-type weighting to the §7.1 power-infra tree** (it currently only gates the bitcoin
  adversarial cases; descriptive-deployed > predictive-intent should apply everywhere).
- **Job A scorers** (emergence / stance / intersection) for the forward Discovery pilot.
- **MD&A targeting** for filings — extract Item 7, not front-matter boilerplate.

## Corpus & independence
- **Complete the Strike reflexivity demonstration (deferred 2026-06-16).** The STRIKE2022 adversarial test
  is a *conditional* pass: the engine refuses the false positive via the capped single-bitcoin-cluster
  guard (`net=+0.25` ≪ `EISC_FLOOR=2.0`), but the own_network-drop mechanism (live quiet < test fires) is
  unexercised because RHR (80) / CD (77) / Bitcoin.Review (12) were deferred at transcription on 2026-06-08
  (`own_net=0`, live==test). To finish: un-defer + transcribe the **RHR/CD 2022–23 Lightning-retail window**
  → `run-extract` → re-run `two-sided --conviction STRIKE2022 --modes live,test`; PASS = test fires while
  live stays quiet. Costs constrained audio-GPU time, hence deferred.
- **Confirm materiality** of the remaining `own_network`-flagged sources with Grant: Unchained, Debifi,
  Coinkite (Bitcoin.Review). Immaterial → flip to independent (the River/Swan precedent).
- **BTC Sessions (Ben Perrin)** — strongest still-missing independent high-Strike merchant/wallet-adoption
  show; resolve feed + ingest (a task chip exists for it).
- **River image-PDF reports** — the 2022 Lightning report + 2025/2026 adoption reports have no text layer;
  add an OCR / page-rasterization+vision path to ingest them.
- Broad, **lineage-aware** corpus expansion toward independent vantage points (not more correlated
  sell-side / trade-press voices).

## Infrastructure & ops
- **Add an automated test suite** (none today) — start with the scoring primitives (EISC, two_sided,
  as-of harness) and the queue.
- **Episode-pipelining** in `transcribe_worker` — download/chunk the next episode while transcribing the
  current one, to close the inter-episode GPU idle gap (the per-chunk 2-in-flight path is already done).
- **Corpus-management UI** — add to the corpus over time and see the full corpus selection.
- **Expose pipeline tunables in the UI (with the UI topic).** Extraction chunk size + per-doc chunk cap,
  audio chunk length, audio concurrency, etc. are currently hardcoded defaults (now also CLI flags on
  `run-extract`: `--chunk-chars`, `--max-chunks`). Surface them in the UI so they're visible/adjustable,
  not black-box assumptions we forget about. Tie to the corpus-management UI work.
- **Daily activity digest email.** A `daily-digest` CLI command rendering a "last 24h" report —
  corpus throughput (`documents.ingested_at`/`processed_at`, `claims.extracted_at` by kind/cluster),
  queue health (`backfill.queue.stats()` — surface **failed/stuck** jobs), Qdrant index lag, infra
  (`spark-status`), and a **key-findings** section (new `ledger` rows by `date_logged`; `candidate_scores`
  that `cleared_evidence_bar`). All timestamps already default to `datetime('now')`, so the window is a
  one-liner; the activity half is buildable today. Deliver via **SMTP** (stdlib `smtplib`+`email`, no new
  dep, configurable per service — `SMTP_HOST/PORT/USER/PASS`, `DIGEST_TO`); ship a `--stdout` dry-run
  mode; schedule via launchd on the Mac. Two dependencies: (1) the findings section is only real once the
  **Job A discovery scorers** run on a schedule — until then it's stubbed/echoes manual adversarial runs;
  (2) sovereignty (guardrail #7) — SMTP through your own/ten31 server keeps it inside the boundary; do NOT
  route through a third-party email API if findings ever carry Battery/Strike or positioning substance.
- **Forward live operation** — the only real test: scoring un-pre-selected signals as they arrive, with
  the dual-evaluation ledger as arbiter.

## Packaging / deploy
- **Start9 `s9pk` packaging.** Build with `make x86` then `make install` → `immense-voyage.local`.
  Bump the package version in the manifest BEFORE building (Start9 0.4.x won't recognize an un-bumped
  rebuild). See the placement standard for infra conventions.