ten31-signal-engine/ROADMAP.md

Ten31 Signal Engine — ROADMAP

Longer-term backlog (the near-term snapshot lives in AGENTS.md → Current state). Rationale and the falsification hypotheses (H1–H6) are in DESIGN_v2.md.

Scoring brain — the real validation

• Frontier-fan-out test (H6) — the untested half, = the actual §1.1 miss. Seed a 2023 conviction, give the model 2023-ONLY context, let it PROPOSE the derivatives, then score that tree's precision/ recall against what actually repriced. The §7.1 backtest hand-wrote the tree (hindsight leakage); this is the part that matters and isn't tested yet.
• Estimator rework (H4). Replace the fragile 2nd-derivative acceleration with a persistence / level-crossing test on the corroboration arrival rate, with per-source-type window cadence.
• Build the real resolver. signals/resolver.py is a stub. Settle the lead-time-vs-actual-repricing debate empirically against structured outcomes (price, FERC interconnection queue, PPAs, capex, policy).
• Extend claim-type weighting to the §7.1 power-infra tree (it currently only gates the bitcoin adversarial cases; descriptive-deployed > predictive-intent should apply everywhere).
• Job A scorers (emergence / stance / intersection) for the forward Discovery pilot.
• MD&A targeting for filings — extract Item 7, not front-matter boilerplate.

Corpus & independence

• Confirm materiality of the remaining own_network-flagged sources with Grant: Unchained, Debifi, Coinkite (Bitcoin.Review). Immaterial → flip to independent (the River/Swan precedent).
• BTC Sessions (Ben Perrin) — strongest still-missing independent high-Strike merchant/wallet-adoption show; resolve feed + ingest (a task chip exists for it).
• River image-PDF reports — the 2022 Lightning report + 2025/2026 adoption reports have no text layer; add an OCR / page-rasterization+vision path to ingest them.
• Broad, lineage-aware corpus expansion toward independent vantage points (not more correlated sell-side / trade-press voices).

Infrastructure & ops

• Add an automated test suite (none today) — start with the scoring primitives (EISC, two_sided, as-of harness) and the queue.
• Episode-pipelining in transcribe_worker — download/chunk the next episode while transcribing the current one, to close the inter-episode GPU idle gap (the per-chunk 2-in-flight path is already done).
• Corpus-management UI — add to the corpus over time and see the full corpus selection.
• Forward live operation — the only real test: scoring un-pre-selected signals as they arrive, with the dual-evaluation ledger as arbiter.

Packaging / deploy

• Start9 s9pk packaging. Build with make x86 then make install → immense-voyage.local. Bump the package version in the manifest BEFORE building (Start9 0.4.x won't recognize an un-bumped rebuild). See the placement standard for infra conventions.